A Historic Week
Even with the relatively calm day in the markets on Friday, this past week has been one of the most volatile on record. Only during the 2008 financial crisis, the 1987 stock market crash, and the Great Depression have stock prices been as volatile as they were this past week. Read More →
Worst 5 Bear Markets
Developed world equity markets have been hammered in recent weeks. In U.S. dollar terms, many have entered bear market territory—defined as a peak-to-trough decline of at least 20%. We have compiled a slideshow of the 5 MSCI developed world stock market indices with the biggest bear market losses.... Read the full story
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
The S&P 500 has now clearly carved out the head-and-shoulders top formation I wrote about in Young Research’s last two technical analysis updates. The price action in the market has a real weak look. Stocks blew threw their widely followed 200-day moving average and headed straight to their next... Read the full story
Rail Stock Divergence
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) put out its weekly rail traffic report today. For the week ending July 16, total carloads fell 0.3% compared to the same week last year. The AAR’s weekly rail traffic data is famously noisy. To get a better read on the underlying trend in rail traffic, it... Read the full story
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
Stocks are up big today on a blowout ADP employment report. Economists were looking for private sector job gains of 70,000 in June. The actual number came in at 157,000—more than double expectations. The strong ADP report comes on the back of better than expected manufacturing data last week. Two better... Read the full story
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
The S&P 500 is approaching a critical technical level. There is support for stocks around 1,255 on the S&P 500. The 1,255 level is also the 200-day moving average and the neckline of what appears to be the formation of a head-and-shoulders top. A decided break below 1,255 could signal further... Read the full story
Sell in May and Go Away
The following charts illustrate the irrefutable stock market power in the year before a presidential election. As you can see there is no other year quite like year three in the presidential election cycle in terms of consistent gains from stocks. The average return in year three is 16.9%, compared to... Read the full story
A Compulsive Liar
Meet the stock market: he’s a valuable economic indicator, but he also has a tendency to lie—even compulsively. The stock market misdirects, misleads, and misinforms. The only time to rely on the stock market is when he is accompanied by his more honest older brother. The stock market’s older brother... Read the full story
Dow in Dollars and Gold
This week the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to 12,700, about where it was three years ago. You’re back to even, right? Not really. Over the same period Gold has risen 68%. It’s true the Dow in dollar terms is about the same over the last three years but when comparing it to the Dow in terms... Read the full story
Bank Stocks Signal Trouble
The KBW Bank stock index has a real troubling look. Bank stocks are rolling over. The bank index is down almost 10% from its February high. Bank of America, the fourth largest component in the index, is now trading below its pre-QE 2.0 price. Wasn’t the Fed’s money printing campaign supposed to inflate... Read the full story
