With only one trading day to go in December, the S&P 500 is up 6.55% for the month. If stocks hold onto their gains it will be the best December for the stock market in almost two decades. And since Ben B. first floated the idea of printing a few billion more dollars in August, stocks have gained more than 20%. He must be delighted. Investors are buying stocks indiscriminately—the riskier the better. Investor sentiment is at multi-year highs. Brokerage analysts are bullish, investment managers are bullish, and individual investors are bullish. The mantra on the street is “don’t fight … [Read more...]
Archives for December 2010
Indicators Point to Accelerating Economic Growth
Initial Claims for Unemployment and the Chicago Purchasing Managers index were released today. Unemployment claims dropped to their lowest level since July of 2008—two months before the Lehman collapse. And the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level in over 20 years. Strength in the Chicago PMI was broad based. Employment was up, prices paid were up, as were the important categories of production, new orders, and inventories. Both indicators point to accelerating economic growth. … [Read more...]
Beijing city to raise minimum wage 21%
Beijing city to raise minimum wage 21% By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Rahul Jacob in Hong Kong, Financial Times "Beijing city is to raise its minimum wage 21 per cent next year, the second such rise in barely six months, amid rising inflationary pressure and growing concern over China’s widening wealth gap... The government is worried about the disproportionate burden of rising food costs on low-income households, which spend a larger share of their income on basic necessities. It also fears that persistent price rises could stoke social unrest, as they often have in the past...“In just … [Read more...]
Christmas Price Inflation
Inflation risks are greatly overstated, says Ben Bernanke. We should be worried about debilitating deflation, not inflation. Ben B., of course, focuses on core inflation as his guide to price stability. Core inflation excludes food and energy. So as long as you don’t mind starving in the freezing cold with the lights off, core inflation is what you should focus on. However, if you are like the other 308 million of us who prefer to eat with the lights on in a warm house, core inflation is not at all useful. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes food and energy, is a better … [Read more...]
IMF Completes Gold Sale Programme
IMF completes gold sale programme - Javier Blas, Financial Times “The International Monetary Fund has said that it has completed its large programme of gold sales, removing one of the few bearish elements restraining the bullion market…In a statement released on Tuesday night, the Washington-based IMF said that it had already sold the expected 403.3 tonnes of gold – equal to around 10 per cent of annual demand for bullion – partly through direct sales to central banks, including one large disposal to the central bank of India, and partly on the open market…The conclusion also means that in … [Read more...]
Fidelity Still the Best
You should browse Fidelity.com when you have some free time between Christmas and New Year’s. You’ll have an enjoyable experience. That’s because few, if any, investment companies spend as much money on technology as Fidelity Investments. That’s been true for years, a fact I remember well because my first job out of Babson College was with Fidelity. It’s hard to believe that was almost 16 years ago. At the time, there was no question Fidelity was the leader in technology. Chairman Ned Johnson III made technology a priority, and that explains why the company remains at the top today. I … [Read more...]
The Dividend Mandate
Income investors can’t help but be discouraged by the current state of affairs. T-bills yield 0.10%, and two-year Treasury notes yield 0.62%. Albert Einstein described compound interest as the greatest mathematical discovery of all time, but compounding is not so great when interest rates are at 0.1%. At 0.1%, it would take 720 years to double your money! For income seekers and those in or nearing retirement, there is no source of risk-free interest. To earn a decent yield in the fixed-income market today, you must be savvy and selective. You have to pick your credit exposure and an … [Read more...]
The Bear Market in Long Bonds
Soaring long bond yields have pushed the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF down 26% from its August high. Investors who bought the PIMCO ETF in August have now lost more than 7 years interest. Compare that to the PIMCO 1-3 Year Treasury ETF which is down only 0.65% from its 2010 high. You may not like the yields on short bonds today, but loading up on long bonds to pick up yield can quickly decimate a portfolio. … [Read more...]
Muni Bonds Continue to Tumble
Muni Bonds Continue to Tumble by Romy Varghese and Kelly Nolan, Wall Street Journal Prices of municipal bonds fell sharply for the second day Tuesday, driving yields on long-term bonds to the highest points in more than 18 months, as investors worried about the impact of the end of a federally subsidized borrowing program…"We are hitting the market as quickly as we can because it's only going to get worse," said Harold Downs, treasurer of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago. … [Read more...]
Small Business Confidence Rises
The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism hit a three year high in November. Small business confidence is finally beginning to improve. While still at recessionary levels, the NFIB index has made a decided move up. Even more encouraging for the millions of unemployed folk among us, is the improvement in the hiring plans index which reached a post recession high in November. About 70% of new jobs are created by small businesses. If small businesses follow through with their hiring plans we should begin to see the unemployment rate move down. There … [Read more...]