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Archives for March 2011

Capital Gains vs. Dividends: 10 Takeaways

March 30, 2011 By E.J. Smith

In 2008, one-third of investors over 65 had reportable capital gains, and 40% of investors between the ages of 45 and 65 had reportable capital gains. Both facts were reported by the IRS and highlighted in a report by the Tax Foundation. Here are my takeaways: 1. Obviously both age groups headed for the exits too soon, selling in a year when the S&P 500 was down 37%. 2. But that’s what happens when stocks are too heavily relied upon, as they were by investors trying to make up for the devastating losses from the tech bubble in the early 2000s. 3. Yes, 2000–2010 may have been the lost … [Read more...]

G.E.’s Strategies Let It Avoid Taxes Altogether

March 25, 2011 By Young Research

While large corporate giants like GE have the resources to hire hundreds of tax avoidance specialists and to lobby Congress for specific provisions, the life-blood of the U.S. economy, America’s small and medium sized businesses do not.  America will soon have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD. Streamlining the corporate tax code, as has been suggested by the president’s Deficit Commission is vital to maintaining America’s economic might. Will we actually see real reform? With Jeff Immelt acting as an outside advisor to President Barack Obama, I wouldn’t bet on it. As this New York … [Read more...]

In the Money

March 25, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Are you impressed by the strength of the U.S. stock market? After a mini correction that took the S&P 500 down 7% from its recent high, stocks have almost recovered all of their losses. This, despite the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, a still uncertain outcome to Japan’s nuclear tragedy, a flare-up in the European debt crisis, an unmistakable double-dip in U.S. housing, and surging food and energy prices. Yes, the strength of this market is impressive, but not at all surprising. As I’ve written previously, the market is focused almost exclusively on one variable, and that variable is … [Read more...]

Equity Bull or Currency Bear?

March 25, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Is it an equity bull market or a currency bear market? In U.S. dollars, the S&P 500 is up an impressive 25% since August 31, 2010, but in terms of Swiss francs and gold, the S&P 500 is up only 12% and 9% respectively. Over half of the stock market rally since August can be attributed to dollar debasement. … [Read more...]

The Era of cheap China goods is over

March 25, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The era of cheap China goods is over according to Li & Fung, a Hong Kong-based logistics company. This has broad implications on many fronts. In terms of monetary policy, China has moved from an exporter of deflation to an exporter of inflation. The tailwind of disinflation in Chinese import prices is likely gone for good. I hope Ben B. is paying attention here. Higher import prices from China could push up U.S inflation. And yes even for the folk at the Fed who apparently don’t eat or drive. Higher inflation in China also has implications for competing economies in Asia. Higher Chinese … [Read more...]

Raise Rates to Boost the Economy

March 22, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

In yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler made a persuasive case for the Fed to hike interest rates to stimulate growth. Kessler’s policy prescription is hard to disagree with. The op-ed should be read in its entirety. See link below. Raise Rates to Boost the Economy By: Andy Kessler … [Read more...]

Who’s Looking Out for You?

March 17, 2011 By E.J. Smith

Do you ever wonder why the guys on TV are selling you gold if it’s so valuable? Why don’t they just pocket it for themselves? Some pretty good money is being made in the transactions they’re promoting, don’t you think? With all that selling, there’s buying too. Like the bookie in Vegas, the gold guy is after the vig, or commission, from both sides of the transaction. He doesn’t really care if gold goes up or down. He just happens to be promoting the buy side on television. All the while, it’s quite possible he sees a line of sellers wrapped around the block outside his office. You don’t … [Read more...]

TIPS Yield: What You Should Know Today

March 16, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

With commodities prices surging and inflation pressures heating up in certain sectors of the economy, the financial press is loaded with articles offering advice on how to protect your portfolio from inflation. One of the more common recommendations is to buy Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). This is a strategy we advise against.  It isn’t that we are averse to TIPS. But the problem with buying TIPS today is that yields are far too low and durations on many TIPS and TIPS funds are too long. By example, the yield on the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities fund is only … [Read more...]

Reduction in Debt Deceiving

March 11, 2011 By E.J. Smith

This morning, the WSJ.com reported "Families Slice Debt to Lowest in 6 Years". The title is far from good news. Even though Americans have less debt they certainly aren't feeling richer. Most of the reduction is from defaults on mortgages and credit cards. Not exactly the desired path most of us associate with financial independence. According to the article, combined mortgage and credit card defaults account for over half the total $208.8 billion drop in household debt. Article: Families Slice Debt to Lowest in 6 Years … [Read more...]

15%-20% Losses Ahead for Munis

March 11, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Jeff Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer of DoubeLine Capital, is looking for losses of another 15%-20% in muni-bonds. Barron’s ran a cover story on Gundlach a few weeks back. The title of the piece was “The New Bond King.” Gundlach made a name for himself investing in mortgage-backed securities at TCW. After a falling out with TCW management, he started DoubleLine Capital. In the Barron’s piece, Gundlach comes off as arrogant and egotistical. Check out this introduction from Barron’s. In the course of several interviews at the Los Angeles headquarters of his new investment firm, DoubleLine … [Read more...]

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