Are consumers confused? Earlier this week the Conference-Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell slightly on concerns consumers have over the short-term health of the economy. But they seem more bullish long-term. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference-Board’s Consumer Research Center said “Consumer Confidence pulled back slightly in March, after rising sharply in February. The moderate decline was due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook, while consumers’ assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, continued to improve.” Meanwhile in the University of Michigan Consumer … [Read more...]
Archives for March 2012
What We’re Reading 3-30-12
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed, John B. Taylor, The Wall Street Journal The White House should stop coddling Buffett, Benn Steil, FT.com Ben Bernanke's Shocking Gold Standard Ignorance, Louis Woodhill, Real Clear Markets Technology can push our crazy buttons, rewire brains, Sharon Jayson, USA TODAY MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says, Phil Mattingly and Silla Brush, Bloomberg … [Read more...]
Economic Mirages
Yesterday the markets were looking for the Durable Goods report to show an increase of 3% in new orders. The numbers disappointed however, with growth of only 2.2% reported. You can see an odd pattern for the last seven months on our chart—lackluster growth sandwiching two optimistic months of 3% plus growth in November and December of 2011. At the end of 2011 companies rushed to take advantage of an accounting gimmick that allowed them to expense their purchases for 2011 immediately, saving them on taxes. But before and after the rush, growth in Durable Goods orders was anemic. This is … [Read more...]
Hubris and Monetary Policy: A Toxic Mix
I stumbled upon this video of Laurence Meyer, the Co-Founder and Senior Managing Director of Macroeconomic Advisers, a mainstream economic modeling and forecasting firm. Meyer served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1996 to 2002. Like Chairman Bernanke, Mr. Meyer received his Ph.D. in economics from MIT. Mr. Meyer is about as mainstream an economist as they come. Having served on the Federal Reserve Board he is intimately familiar with the Fed’s economic models and the nature of discussions at policy meetings. Mr. Meyer works from the same type of economic … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Economist David Rosenberg on U.S. Growth, Markets
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He speaks with Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu and on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
Silver Store of Value
Cash is king. So have a stash for your disaster preparations. Like you, I don’t like losing money. That’s why I bought some silver, gold, and Canadian dollars to back up my U.S. dollars. All three should provide ample backup in the case of U.S. dollar debasement—the government’s way of taxing you more without raising rates. Now, I’m not talking big numbers here. I’m using less than 1% of my investable assets. This isn’t investment advice with speculative hopes of selling at a higher price down the road. This is more along the lines of stocking up food and water. Consider this “survival … [Read more...]
Retirement No Time for Whipsaw Portfolio Volatility
A basic understanding of the arithmetic of portfolio losses can help you become a more comfortable confident investor. Our chart of the arithmetic of portfolio losses shows investors what returns they’ll need to make up for portfolio losses. The horizontal axis shows the assumed portfolio loss incurred. The vertical axis shows the portfolio gain required to break even. … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 3-23-12
Indicators Fall in China and Europe, Jack Ewing and Bettina Wassener, New York Times Top 1% Would See $90,000 Tax Rise, Report Says, John D. McKinnon, The Wall Street Journal Mild Winter Weather and Payroll Employment, Macroadvisors Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate, Aaronson, Davis and Hu, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2 Federal Reserve Nominees Make It to a Confirmation Hearing, Annie Lowrey, New York Times The Anti-Jobs Lobby, The Wall Street Journal … [Read more...]