Bloomberg View Columnist Gary Shilling says we are in a "global recession" and talks about what the Fed can do. … [Read more...]
Archives for August 2012
High Corn Prices Threaten Consumer Spending
Stockpiles of grains are dwindling across the globe as droughts take hold in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Bloomberg reports: Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soybeans and rice will drop 1.8 percent to a four-year low before harvests in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Crops in the U.S., the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops and India’s monsoon rainfall already is 20 percent below normal. The International Grains Council began July by forecasting record harvests. It ended with a prediction for a 2 percent drop … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Fisher: More Stimulus May Overburden Central Banks
Bloomberg: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher says "we have done our job" and adequate economic stimulus is in place … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Pimco’s El-Erian on U.S. July Jobs Data, Fed Policy
Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the July U.S. employment report and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. El-Erian also discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and Europe's debt crisis. He speaks with Betty Liu and Joshua Lipton on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
Higher Unemployment amid Slow Job Gains
Today’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated an increase of 163,000 jobs in July (chart 1). That’s the most jobs added in four months, but still not enough to reduce unemployment. Coming in at 8.3% (chart 2), unemployment continued its four month upward trend. The rise in the unemployment rate was telegraphed around 17 months ago when jobless claims lost their downward momentum and began rising (chart 3). If claims numbers continue at elevated levels, expect more trouble in the jobs market. … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 8-3-12
Wind taken out of nuclear power’s sails, Clark, Bream and Chazan, Financial Times What to do when your portfolio is off kilter, Vanguard U.S. growth is likely to remain moderate in 2012 and 2013, IMF Fed Weighs Cutting Interest on Banks’ Reserves After ECB Move, Gage and McCormick, Bloomberg How Different States Are Faring During the Economic Expansion, BEA … [Read more...]
Manufacturing Staggers
For the second month in a row manufacturers reported declines (chart 1) in overall business, as recorded by the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business for July. Particularly worrisome for the future of the economy was a continued decline in both New Orders (chart 2) and Supplier Deliveries. These two components of the ISM are seen as leading indicators of economic strength or weakness. New Orders contracted for the second month in a row, while Supplier Deliveries (also known as Vendor Performance) contracted for the sixth month in a row. Backlogs of orders continued to decline as well, … [Read more...]