This is an excerpt from Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy (December 2014 issue), where we help investors compound wealth with investment strategies that span the global investment landscape. We cover the global stock and bond markets as well as currencies and commodities. Young Research's Global Investment Strategy is designed for the investor who does not want his investment success bound by the opportunities of a single market. The currency wars that the world's major economic powers are engaged in are not being fought with the same tactics as previous currency wars. There are no … [Read more...]
Archives for January 2015
The Monday Melee: Tuesday Edition
Are You Dropping Cable This Year? What We’re Reading: Tax Reform Should Go Right Down Main Street (The Wall Street Journal) What happens if the ECB pulls a Swiss-style surprise (MarketWatch) Long live print! J.C. Penney resurrects its catalog, after killing it five years ago (The Wall Street Journal) Gloom Mongers Find Company in Bond Traders Seeing Deflation (Bloomberg) NASDAQ CEO tells FED to put down the punch bowl. (The Wall Street Journal) Hawaii’s Solar Push Strains the Grid (MIT Technology Review) Greece Reveals Paradox in Survival of Eurozone (The Wall Street … [Read more...]
Obama’s Motives for Raising the Capital Gains Tax
All you need to know about Obama’s motives for wanting to raise the capital gains tax in a one minute video. This is from the 2008 campaign. Does it sound as half-baked to you as it does to me? … [Read more...]
IMF: Outlook Not So Good
While the U.S. has been enjoying some economic success of late, much of the world is looking gloomier. The IMF made a big cut in its World Economic Outlook Update released today. Global growth for 2015 was revised down to 3.5% from 3.8%, a big cut. The outlook for 2016 was also cut by .3 percentage points to 3.7% growth. IMF economist Olivier Blanchard said of the ramifications “At the country level, the cross currents make for a complicated picture. It means good news for oil importers, bad news for oil exporters. Good news for commodity importers, bad news for exporters. Continuing … [Read more...]
Consumers Pumped
Low prices for fuel and an increase in the number of employed Americans has pumped up consumers. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey released the mid-month estimate for January today. The result was the highest recorded in eleven years. … [Read more...]
Swiss Franc Soars
The Swiss National Bank announced today that it was dropping its three year-long peg to the euro. The franc soared on the news gaining as much as 30% against the euro and as much as 25% against the dollar before settling in with about a 15% gain against the USD. The revaluation was a punishing blow to Swiss exporters. The Swiss stock market is down about 8.5% on the news, but in USD terms it is up better than 5%. … [Read more...]
Raging Bull Turns Bearish
Well sort of. James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, one of the most outspoken bulls of today’s bubble market is raising the red flag of caution. Why has Paulsen turned more bearish on the U.S. stock market? Based on a recent missive posted on his website it would appear Mr. Paulsen has fingered the biggest bubble (in a broad sense) in at least six decades as a risk to the market. As Mr. Paulsen rightly points out, the Median P/E of NYSE stocks is at a post-war record. That is saying something. This is the most expensive stock market in your investing lifetime. And it’s not just P/E … [Read more...]
Oil Collapse more than a Supply Story
Copper is said to have a PhD. in economics because it has been one of the most reliable real-time barometers of the economy. With much of the world’s demand growth coming from outside the U.S. it might be more appropriate to say copper has a PhD. in global economics. What does copper and the global economy have to do with oil? Well, the narrative in the financial press is that the collapse in oil prices is a supply story. The explanation I read most often is that the Saudi’s are in a battle for market share with U.S. shale producers (as if this makes any sense, topic for another day … [Read more...]
Gold vs. Oil
Oil is a steal in terms of gold. The ratio of gold to oil is trading at more than two standard deviations above an almost five decade mean. A long-short would be your play here. … [Read more...]
How Much Gas Left in the Auto Sales Tank?
Since lows in 2010, auto sales have surged, and have been a bright spot in the U.S. economy. But how much of the surge has been catch up from the sharp drop that began in 2008? More importantly, can the surge continue now that the auto-buying levels of the 2004-07 era have been reached? With oil petering out, home sales flat, exports facing tougher competition from a stronger dollar, and a possible stall in auto-sales, where will new growth come from in the U.S.? … [Read more...]