VIX Through the Roof The popular VIX index of volatility spiked upward through its two-standard deviation line last Monday, and has remained well above its mean since then. While the VIX isn't always an indicator of recession, a spike in the index is certainly worrisome for the market. VIX Wild Ride VIX Reality Check [gview file="https://www.youngresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/TheVixRealityCheckMay10.pdf" width="600" save="0"] Quotable "Fragility is the quality of things that are vulnerable to volatility." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb "Fear tends to manifest itself much more … [Read more...]
Archives for August 2015
VIDEO: Central Bank Mispricing is Backdrop to Sellof
Great explanation on the folly of misguided monetary activism from Jim Grant. The video is a must watch for those still wondering why the most aggressive Fed policy in the history of the United States has been so ineffective. … [Read more...]
Zac Brown Band: Castaway
Castaway is my new favorite boat song from the Zac Brown Band’s new album Jekyll + Hyde. I love the five part harmony at 2:15 minutes led by John Hopkins and drummer Chris Fryar bringing it all home. Makes me want to go to out on the boat (Read How to Buy a Boat part I, II, III, IV, V, and VI) and become a Castaway. … [Read more...]
Market Correction: Is this the New Normal?
Over the last five trading days the market has cratered by almost 11%. An 11% decline in stocks is not an out of the ordinary correction. Stock market corrections, defined as a decline of 10% or more happen about once every year. The last 10% correction in the stock market was all the way back in 2011 so we were overdue. The suddenness of this correction and the speed of the uninterrupted decline is what is uncommon and rather disturbing. Over the last seven decades, there have only been seven other occasions when stocks fell by as much as they did over the last five trading days. We … [Read more...]
China: A Pump & Dump On the Peasants
This is an excerpt from Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy (June 2015 issue), where we help investors compound wealth with investment strategies that span the global investment landscape. We cover the global stock and bond markets as well as currencies and commodities. Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy is designed for the investor who does not want his investment success bound by the opportunities of a single market. The Chinese market has recently entered the land of bubble conditions with vengeance. The Shanghai Composite index is up 152% over the last year, and the … [Read more...]
Winter Stage of the Business Cycle
This is an excerpt from the June 2015 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, where Dick Young helps investors compound wealth with income generating strategies that seek to avoid risk. Dick uses his proven inference reading based investment strategy to recommend stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds generating attractive shareholder returns. Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report is designed for the discerning investor not the fad driven speculator. Buy High, Sell Low The decided tendency of a vast majority of investors is to greatly understate sensitivity to … [Read more...]
CRASH!
Early last June here’s how I led off a special three-part Intelligence Report series to subscribers: “In recent issues my goal has been to work especially hard at providing you intelligence that will keep you safe and dividend-centric during what I consider the inevitable coming meltdown.” Meltdown? Absolutely baked into the cake as I write to you and becoming more of a deep medium-term concern for me as time passes. The Fed’s robbing Peter (you and Dick Young) to benefit Paul (international bankers and Wall Street charlatans) program continues to create a clogged financial toilet. Junk … [Read more...]
Video: The Retirement Gamble
You, no doubt, have questions about your retirement, especially with the recent market declines. I was speaking with a client yesterday and he told me that over the weekend he watched the documentary The Retirement Gamble. He said his wife recorded it and asked him if he wanted to watch it with her. And later that day, he told me, they had one of the most productive discussions about their finances, how he planned to sell the business, and basically a five year plan. I want you to watch this video too and, like my clients, share it with someone you love. Saving for retirement isn't exactly fun … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Day of Rage
World Dependent on Chinese Growth The Wall Street Journal writes: Beijing’s struggles this summer have spooked many investors into viewing China as a threat to, rather than a rescuer of, global growth. During the financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009, China, with a colossal stimulus plan, acted as a shock absorber. Lately, it is China that is providing the shocks. Over the past week, it has grown clear how dependent a growth-starved world is on China, which accounts for 15% of global output but has contributed up to half of global growth in recent years. Given this dependency, one … [Read more...]
How Long Can Saudi Arabia Hold Out on Oil?
Bloomberg's Vivian Nereim and Donna Abu-Nasr write that Saudi Arabia is facing serious economic trouble as a result of continued low oil prices: Economists are predicting a budget deficit of as much as 20 percent of gross domestic product and the International Monetary Fund forecasts a first Saudi current-account deficit in more than a decade. Reserves at the central bank tumbled 10 percent from a year ago, or by more than $70 billion. As a result, bets on the devaluation of the riyal are surging. The Tadawul All Share Index lost 18 percent in the past three months and dragged stocks down … [Read more...]