A lot of great stuff happens when you’re on the water. It’s usually the things that you don’t plan which end up being the best memories. Like the time when I was shark fishing as a kid with my cousins, my uncle Ron, and my dad. My dad had a brand new pole. At one point he went down below to get some sandwiches and Uncle Ron began shouting, “Randy you’ve got a fish on your line!” Within seconds the pole was overboard. After lunch, Uncle Ron hooked onto to a sand shark and yelled, “Randy I’ve got something.” As it came into sight my dad said, “Ron! He’s got my pole!” The fish got away. But we … [Read more...]
Archives for August 2015
Beware Bio-tech risk in ETFs
Barrons’s had a nice piece over the weekend on the hidden exposures that may be lurking in your small-cap fund. Bio-tech stocks have been on a tear over the last few years, rising to what can only be described as bubble levels. The bubble is so big that that the Fed even spotted it. Surprising considering their recent track record on bubbles. But that was over a year ago. Since then, the SPDR Bio-tech index has risen another 50%. So what, you may ask, why should I care about the bubble in small-cap bio-tech stocks if I don’t own a bio-tech fund? Because your “diversified” small-cap ETF … [Read more...]
How to Buy a Boat Part V
“If you’re going to buy a boat that is mass produced, make sure you don’t buy the one that was put together on a Friday afternoon,” Skip Helme, Owner Brewer Street Boatworks. Well Skip and I made our offer, it was accepted and we needed to get it surveyed. Skip said he knew just the guy: Steve Maddock. Turns out our boat was built on a Friday afternoon. Steve Maddock is one of those guys that’s so good at what he does you’re just happy he’s on your side. He’s not afraid to ruffle feathers and tell people what he thinks of the boat they’re trying to sell. So, Skip and I planned … [Read more...]
Home Improvement Surges along with Housing Starts
Housing starts are nowhere near their pre-recession highs, or even their pre-recession averages, but starts are up over 153% per month from the lows of 2009. Likewise the S&P 500 Home Improvement Retail Index (made up of companies like Home Depot and Lowe's) has been surging. Home builder sentiment is also high, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rising this month to its highest level since 2005. … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: The Sharing Economy
Woe betide the Cabbie: New York City taxi pickups have fallen 10% in the first half of the year, and cabbies are pointing the finger straight at Uber and other ride-sharing companies as the cause of their problem. Nolan Hicks and Dan Rivoli write in the New York Daily News: Pickups for the iconic taxis that long ruled Manhattan streets plummeted 10% to 77 million in the first six months of 2015 — down from 85.5 million the year before, a Daily News analysis of trip data showed. Fewer riders for the fleet of 13,587 yellow cabs translated into less cash. The taxis collected $981 million … [Read more...]
How to Buy a Boat Part IV
Money can’t buy you happiness, but it can buy you a boat. So with that in mind, Skip and I planned out our road (and sea) trip to Long Island. We chose Long Island because there were about five to ten boats of the specific make and model we were targeting for sale at various boatyards and dealerships there. Also, Skip summered on Shelter Island, NY and knew the area well. After looking at the first couple of boats, Skip suggested we come up with a back-of-the napkin scoring sheet. We graded each boat based on overall condition, hours on the engines, and an assortment of other factors. For … [Read more...]
The $18 billion Name
Here’s a head-scratcher. Google announced on Monday that it was changing its name to Alphabet and redoing its organization chart. Seriously, Alphabet? Yup, Larry Page, the company’s CEO said they chose Alphabet because “it means a collection of letters that represent language, one of humanity’s most important innovations.” Mr. Trump might say that name is weak and stupid—I’d say it’s a bit corny too. Alphabet will be the holding company for all of old Google’s businesses. The Google name will now be used for Google’s main business lines (you know the only ones that make money like Search … [Read more...]
Richard Russell on the Bull Market
Richard Russell continues to get the job done at age 91. Here he talks about Monday's market gains. Everything that I read regarding the US economy is bullish. The only newspaper that dares to publish bearish comments on the US economy is Investor’s Business Daily. The mass of comments about the US economy is so lopsided, it makes one wonder if supply and demand has given way to Fed manipulation. I find myself wondering whether the stock market still retains any forecasting ability. But let’s face it: the stock market is all that we have to go on. As I write, one hour before the close, … [Read more...]
The Biggest Losers
We covered some of the biggest winners in the S&P 500 YTD in a prior post. Which companies are the biggest losers YTD? Below is a list of the 10 worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far this year. At the top of the list is Keurig Green Mountain Coffee. Apparently single serve coffee has had its best days? Also on the list are five companies in the commodity production or services business. That’s no surprise considering the bear market in commodity stocks. For the contrarian minded this is where you want to be looking for future opportunities. Also on the list are Michael Kors … [Read more...]
Happy 91st Birthday Richard Russell
Richard Russell has been publishing Dow Theory Letters since 1958 and writes at dowtheoryletters.com. He turned 91 in July and writes about the markets and life on a daily basis. Here is my all-time favorite piece. Happy 91st Birthday Mr. Russell. RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the … [Read more...]