Jack Bogle Predicts Low Returns for a Decade The End of the Beginning? While he projects continued bull markets for years to come, Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's US Equity analyst is quoted by BusinessInsider.com as writing: "While a high percentage of companies were able to show year-over-year margin expansion this year, the combination of muted revenue and negative factors in industrials, energy, and materials, and less benefits from lower oil in terms of consumer spend and lower input costs, have caused us to reduce our 2015 EPS outlook from $124 to $120.5," the analysts added. "We also … [Read more...]
Archives for November 2015
How Low Can Copper Prices Fall?
Prices for copper have fallen to levels not seen since April of 2009. Weakness in copper is a bad sign for the economy, as it is a vital ingredient in so many different areas of industry. Analysts call the metal "Dr. Copper" because, as the saying goes, it has a Ph.D. in economics. Movements in copper prices often lead GDP growth. Needless to say, the recent price movements in copper are worrying. … [Read more...]
Islamorada Sunset
Happy Thanksgiving from Dick and Debbie Gratitude Keeps Your Heart Healthy Taking the time to focus on what you are grateful for is not only good for your soul, but it is also good for your heart. New research suggests that gratitude helps the heart because it reduces stress, a huge factor in heart disease. Read more here from NPR on why the more grateful people were the healthier they were. … [Read more...]
The Rising Costs of Thanksgiving
Every year the Farm Bureau puts out a report on the price of Thanksgiving dinner. This year, no surprise, the price of Thanksgiving has increased again. From the Farm Bureau: WASHINGTON, D.C., November 19, 2015 — The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 30th annual informal price survey of classic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table indicates the average cost of this year’s feast for 10 is $50.11, a 70-cent increase from last year’s average of $49.41. The big ticket item – a 16-pound turkey – came in at a total of $23.04 this year. That’s roughly $1.44 per pound, an … [Read more...]
This is why Pfizer is Spending $155 Billion on Botox
Pfizer, the makers of Viagra have agreed to buy Allergan, the makers of Botox for $155 billion. It sounds like destiny. Pfizer isn’t buying Allergan only for the drugs though. A big motivation for the deal is the tax savings. Post-acquisition, Pfizer will shift its tax base from the U.S. to Ireland. Ireland has one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the world at 12.5%. The U.S. has one of the highest. The pols will of course demagogue Pfizer for abandoning America, but our tax code is a national disgrace. How are American companies supposed to compete with their foreign counterparts when … [Read more...]
Goodbye Connecticut
Over the weekend a client emailed me an article about Connecticut’s Borgeson Universal Co. It produces steering components and has operated in Torrington, Connecticut since 1914. It is leaving Connecticut for South Carolina because business is no longer doable or wanted in Connecticut. Here is the article: With the Litchfield hills and Connecticut in our rear-view mirror as we move our 101-year-old manufacturing company to South Carolina, we are nostalgic, excited, and disappointed. We love Torrington and Connecticut but not all the things the General Assembly and the governor have done to … [Read more...]
RIP Richard Russell
The publisher of Dow Theory Letters has passed away at the age of 91. Richard Russell worked right to the bitter end. Even in his final days, realizing that he was at the end of the line, Russell continued to offer great wisdom in his writing. I was a subscriber to Russell, virtually from his start in the late 1950s. Richard was put on the map with a great series of essays on Dow Theory in Barron’s. In the early 1960s as a student at Babson College, I studied Dow Theory religiously. Over the decades, no one did a better job of bringing the tenets of Dow Theory to the individual investor … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 11-23-2015
Elizabeth Warren's Tax Warning - WSJ Argentina Shifts Right - The Guardian Why Housing Hasn't Lifted the Economy Much - WSJ Reining in a Sprawling Federal Reserve - WSJ The Downside of Stock Buybacks - Reuters The Best Year-end Tax Moves - Fortune … [Read more...]
How High Can Interest Rates Go?
The Fed released the minutes from its latest policy meeting on Wednesday. The minutes are usually a snooze-fest. They tell the public about the economic outlook of Fed staff economists and the policy makers who set interest rates. Fed minutes make SEC company filings read like a Tom Clancy novel. You have to be seriously caffeinated to get them without inadvertently dozing off. I’m talking Starbucks red-eye caffeinated here—Folgers won’t cut it. When the minutes were released this week, the stock market immediately rallied. The initial press reports were confused. Some reports attributed … [Read more...]
These are America’s Most Competitive States
The Tax Foundation has released its 2016 State Business Tax Climate Index. Here are the 10 best and the 10 worst states according to the index. The 10 best states in this year’s Index are: 1. Wyoming 2. South Dakota 3. Alaska 4. Florida 5. Nevada 6. Montana 7. New Hampshire 8. Indiana 9. Utah 10. Texas The 10 lowest ranked, or worst, states in this year’s Index are: 41. Maryland 42. Ohio 43. Wisconsin 44. Connecticut 45. Rhode Island 46. Vermont 47. Minnesota 48. California 49. New York 50. New Jersey Read the full report here: [gview … [Read more...]