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Investment Research Since 1978

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Archives for June 2016

The Monday Melee: Brexit or no, Did the Pound Have it Coming?

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Was the Pound Ready to Get Walloped? Even before the Brexit vote was in, analysts were decrying the overvaluation of the British Pound. Here Gary Howes at poundsterlinglive.com writes before the vote: The British pound may rally on the outcome of a Remain victory to the EU referendum, but ultimately the move could prove fleeting. This is according to two prominent research institutions - Morgan Stanley and Capital Economics. “In our opinion, GBP is overvalued as GBP-supportive interest rate and yield differentials are inadequate to help to fund the UK’s 7% GDP current account deficit,” … [Read more...]

The First RAGE Gauge Reading Signals High Risk

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For June 2016, my RAGE Gauge signals: High Risk Tension is high on the social and economic fronts. FBI Background checks continue to trend higher, dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is trending high, and the underemployment rate (U6) isn’t real encouraging in this sluggish economy. But it’s a sluggish economy with inflation. You need only look at your checkbook and credit card bills, not the government’s worthless CPI, to find it: Education, Condo’s in Boston/NYC/Miami, food (the type you buy) and taxes to name a few are sky-high. Gold is up 20% YTD. Your dollars are getting … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds on Wrong Side of Brexit

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What will be the bigger loss for hedge funds, the money lost on their exclusive exit polls, or bets that are no longer in the money? The 2 and 20 crowd— they take a 2% fee per year on your portfolio and 20% of your gains—has got to be on the wrong side of this trade. All night/day Thursday the polls had Brexit as a Remain. The 2 and 20 crowd, and their leverage, are playing God with other people’s money—you know, retired teachers who have entrusted their retirement to the government who outsources that responsibility to these so-called fiduciaries. ZeroHedge quotes James Butterfill, head of … [Read more...]

RAGE Gauge: Can’t Get No Satisfaction!

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Another component of my RAGE Gauge is Americans' dissatisfaction with the direction of the country as measured by Gallup's poll of "Satisfaction With the United States." The poll asks responders the simple question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" This is a great gauge of Americans' overall contentedness, and elevated dissatisfaction could be a sign of pending social unrest or other dislocations in the economy as a whole. Today Americans are dissatisfied at rates higher than the fifteen year average. This indicates … [Read more...]

Investing in Water

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You can learn a tremendous amount about investment trends by thinking in terms of your family’s survivals needs. Lately, I’ve been keenly interested in ways to tap into the vast supply of sea water surrounding Newport, RI. Desalination is not cheap but I believe it is what the future will look like—where you, the individual will be empowered. More on a DIY watermaker here. … [Read more...]