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Archives for March 2017

Will Shale 2.0 Bring OPEC to its Knees?

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

In 2014 Saudi Arabia engineered what might kindly be called a collapse in oil prices by inexplicably trying to gain market share by cutting revenues nearly in half. As prices plummeted, so too did hopes for American shale oil production, which was curtailed to cut costs. But a strange thing has happened. Even before OPEC belatedly decided to reverse the wrongheaded Saudi policy, American shale drillers were finding ways to cut costs and increase their own productivity. With a comeback in oil prices, even more drillers have joined a movement that has come to be known as Shale 2.0. Now, … [Read more...]

Is The Trump Boom Already Over?

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

President Trump's victory in November set off a monster rally in big stocks, small stocks, stocks with high tax rates, and infrastructure stocks among others. It also led to a sell-off in sectors that were perceived losers from a Trump victory. But as the WSJ explains  in a power-packed chart (below), the Trump trade appears to be fading. What's the takeaway for you? Markets, and the investors who make up those markets, have a tendency of over- and under-reacting to news. … [Read more...]

Immigrant Robots Taking American Jobs

October 26, 2017 By Dick Young

If you ask the typical American where all the manufacturing jobs have gone, you're likely to get one of two answers. Either they've been shipped overseas to cheaper labor markets, or the jobs have been taken by robots. In a twist on this theme, the WSJ reports that American manufacturing companies looking to add robots to their workforce are frequently importing them from Japan and Germany. As Daniel Michaels writes, America is losing the battle to supply production robots and machinery. Vickers Engineering Inc. embodies the potential of American manufacturing. The New Troy, Mich., machining … [Read more...]

Could Inflation Be the Big Surprise of 2017?

March 30, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Inflation, or measured inflation for those who take a more skeptical view of the accuracy of the government’s inflation estimates, has been subdued. Core inflation which strips out food and energy is running at 2.20%--slightly ahead of the Fed’s inflation target. The subdued level of core inflation seems to have led to some complacency in the market. Bond yields and the risk premium for inflation remain near record lows. But an alternative measure of inflation that takes into account the true cost of home prices instead of the fictional owners-equivalent rent measure used by the … [Read more...]

Vinyl is Far from Dead

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

If you’re a music lover like me and own some vinyl records then you know what I’m talking about when I say vinyl is a listening experience. Daniel Adrian Sanchez reports at Digital Music News that Warner Music Group has announced their first vinyl-only record label, named Run Out Groove. He writes: “Run Out Groove is a new vinyl only label that caters specifically to music fanatics, pressing limited edition titles made by music fans for music fans. We want every record we release to be a cornerstone of your collection. Similar to archaeologists, we plan to dig, discover and deliver records … [Read more...]

This Tiny State is a Leader in Wind Power

October 26, 2017 By Dick Young

In May, America's first off-shore wind power installation, Deepwater Wind, will go online in tiny Rhode Island. Around 30MWs of power will be generated by the five turbine wind farm. Debbie and I lived in Newport for years, and the winds are constant and strong. There aren't many places in the country that can match Rhode Island's wind resource potential. To build on the success of Deepwater Wind, Rhode Island's governor Gina Raimondo has announced her intention to take the state's "clean energy generation capacity to 1,000 MW by the end of 2020 from about 100 MW in 2016." Renewable … [Read more...]

Would You Pay $99 a Year for Unlimited Grocery Delivery?

October 26, 2017 By Dick Young

Costco is teaming up with startup, Shipt, to offer a $99 a year deal on delivery of customers' grocery purchases. According to Fortune, the fee covers unlimited deliveries. The move is a step in the direction of Amazon's popular Prime service. With more Americans accustomed to paying annual delivery membership charges, Costco could be betting that customers will be eager to take advantage of unlimited grocery delivery. Phil Wahba writes at Fortune: Costco Wholesale (COST, +0.37%) is ramping up its home grocery delivery. The bulk retailer is teaming up with Shipt, a startup delivery … [Read more...]

One Million Chinese Companies Ride the Crowdfunding Wave

October 26, 2017 By E.J. Smith

Technology that makes investing in non-tradable securities easy isn’t a sure way to make money. In China, a million companies have used loose regulations on internet investing to fund risky ventures. This isn't all bad, but there are drawbacks to investing in such opaque ventures. In just one corner of the booming online finance sector, more than 5,700 firms are registered with the Association of Shanghai Internet Financial Industry, a quasigovernmental group, to match small lenders and borrowers. Not every company is registered, and more than half of those that are have had repayment … [Read more...]

Who took all of America’s Manufacturing Jobs?

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The decline in manufacturing employment in the U.S. has many causes. Some of them policy related, but others are due to technological innovation. Here Quartz reports on a study that tries to measure the impact of the proliferation of industrial robots on the U.S. labor market. The authors find that each additional robot reduced employment by 3-6 workers. In a recent study (pdf), economists Daren Acemoglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University try to quantify how worried we should be about robots. They examine the impact of industrial automation on the US labor market from 1990 to … [Read more...]

Is the Indexing Bubble about to Pop?

October 26, 2017 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The move toward index-based investing has been relentless in recent years. Investors have pulled billions from actively managed funds and put them into index funds and index-based ETFs. Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research thinks the trend toward passive investing is a bubble that may be ready to pop. Barron's summarizes his views. Meanwhile, Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research thinks we’re in the late stages of a bubble in passive investing. “Not only have index funds outperformed, but the crowd has noticed,” he writes. Over the past year, investors have yanked billions from actively managed funds … [Read more...]

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