If the decision were up to me to choose between current Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell or Stanford University economics professor John Taylor as the next Federal Reserve Chief, I would choose Taylor. At least, of the two, Taylor has a rule named after him. According to the “Taylor Rule,” the Federal Funds rate would be a much higher 3.5% today, not a measly 1%. But the rule isn’t exactly cut and dried. “Its components include the gap between inflation and its target, between economic output and its target, and the ‘neutral’ real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate, which keeps the … [Read more...]
Archives for October 2017
Where to Find Opportunity in a Follow the Leader Market
At Young’s World Money Forecast a few weeks back Dick wrote, “What we are looking at in 2017 is a “follow the leader” momentum based market move completely untethered from the long term anchor of dependable cash flow for shareholders.” That was no joke. The chart below shows the difference in the annual return of the MSCI Momentum Index (follow the leader index) and the Russell 1000 Value Index (2017 return is YTD). This is only the third time in almost four decades that momentum has performed this much better than value. The only other occasions when a “follow the leader” strategy worked … [Read more...]
Once Again McDonald’s Wins with Low Prices
McDonald's same store sales increased by 6% last quarter. The restaurant chain says its renewed focus on low prices drove that success. Annie Gasparro writes: ”We know that customers motivated primarily by value and deals come more often and spend more,” McDonald’s Chief Executive Steve Easterbrook said on a conference call with analysts. McDonald’s began revamping its value menu in the U.S. after realizing that it had been losing customers in recent years to rivals serving cheaper food rather than higher-end fast-casual restaurants it had been trying to emulate with healthier and upscale … [Read more...]
This Market is Smoking-Hot
Over the weekend I received a post-card sized mailer from a local realtor. She was reaching out to residents in my general neighborhood. She has a retired couple interested in buying in the “neighborhood.” Her “clients” want off street parking, an easy to maintain yard, located within walking distance to the center of Newport. Whether this couple exists is neither here nor there. The real estate market, as she points out, is smoking hot and if you’re thinking about selling she wants to hear from you. Pretty clever approach for stressed out buyers or realtors. Which leads me to an article … [Read more...]
You’ve Never Seen a Market Like This
You know something in this market environment isn’t quite right when eight years into a bull market investors are still hanging on every word out of the world’s central banks. The WSJ reports on the upcoming tight-rope act of ECB President Mario Draghi. There used to be a time when the prices of stocks and bonds reflected company and business cycle fundamentals. Today, that seems like an idyllic movie set from a bygone era. Mr. Draghi’s task on Thursday is even trickier than the balancing act that faced the Fed when it wound down its own QE program almost four years ago. The ECB has had to … [Read more...]
Hiccup or Warning Sign? Canada’s Retail Sales Struggle
Retail sales in Canada fell in August at the fastest month-over-month rate for purchases at food and beverage stores (see chart below) in almost three years. Canada's economy has been going strong for some time. Is the retail sales dip a simple hiccup, or a sign that things have changed in the Great White North? Paul Vieira writes: According to the August retail report, eight of the 11 sectors tracked posted decreases from the previous month. The biggest weight on the retail figures was a 2.5% drop in sales at food and beverage stores, to C$9.98 billion. Sales were also down at outlets … [Read more...]
Are your Part of the Market’s Most Crowded Trade?
The FT reports that investors are dumping money into technology stocks at the fastest pace since January. No surprise there, as tech shares are the best performing sector in the market YTD. The quarterly performance comparison crowd and those who feel they have somehow missed out are chasing return in the sector. If you are an index-based investor (that includes ETFs), tech is your biggest sector exposure and the FAANG stocks are amongst your largest individual positions. Tech stocks have posted blistering gains this year. The MSCI World information technology index, which covers big and … [Read more...]
Is China Subsidizing its Auto Industry to Electric Dominance?
In China electric vehicles are subsidized, but only those produced with batteries made by companies on a specially approved list of manufacturers. Only one country is home to all 57 manufacturers on the list, China. So while foreign batteries aren't illegal in Chinese electric vehicles, they are made completely noncompetitive because their Chinese competition is subsidized. Trefor Moss reports: SUZHOU, China—Batteries have emerged as a critical front in China’s campaign to be the global leader in electric vehicles, but foreign auto makers and experts say it is rigging the market to favor … [Read more...]
How to Attract Amazon’s HQ2
If you’re a small business owner, then you probably can’t relate to the full court press from what seems like all of New England—and the rest of America for that matter—hoping to lure Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to choose their city or state for its second headquarters. You might be saying to yourself “no one put on a press conference to have me move to start a business.” Which is why I like the approach New Hampshire is taking. Yes, it wants Bezos. But it doesn’t have to fund HQ2 with tax breaks residents end up paying. “Everyone else is still trying to play catchup to this tax incentive we … [Read more...]
Currency Traders Don’t Like New Zealand’s New Government
A coalition led by the Labour Party in New Zealand has taken control of the government, and currency traders are punishing the country by selling off the New Zealand dollar. James Glynn writes: Despite finishing second in an inconclusive general election, 37-year-old Labour leader Jacinda Ardern emerged victorious after smaller parties agreed Thursday to form a government. The coalition ends nearly a decade of conservative rule that helped propel the island economy to one of the fastest growth rates in the developed world. The uncertainty created by the prospect of a switch in policies and … [Read more...]
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