John Authers gives his summary of markets in 2017 and his outlook for 2018 in the FT this morning. John argues that long-term interest rates are the key risk to watch in 2018. Sans a rise in long rates, known risks look benign. As for unknown risks, well… there is a reason we have long advised a balanced approach, diversified across asset classes and regions. Below are some of the highlights from John Authers' FT column. You can read the full article here (subscription required): Record Low Volatility in 2017 This can’t carry on, can it? This is the last Long View of 2017, the most … [Read more...]
Archives for December 2017
Your Survival Guy: Most Popular Posts of 2017
As the year draws to a close I want to review some of the most read posts on Yoursurvivalguy.com in 2017. These are the posts that got the most attention from readers like you. The Last Issue of Intelligence Report After Dick Young announced his last issue of Intelligence Report, I wrote a series of "What now?" posts for readers. Here's an excerpt from Part III: In his first issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, Dick wrote, “Hugh Johnson is known worldwide as an expert and writer on gardening and wine. In Connoisseur’s June/85 issue Michael and Ariane Batterberry wrote about … [Read more...]
New Autos Will be Built by America’s Most Established Businesses
While brand new businesses like Tesla, Uber and Waymo receive a lot of attention for the ways they are pioneering auto-transport, it will be old companies with powerful innovation pipelines that feed the auto industry the parts and ideas it needs to continue advancing. Companies like 3M, which builds touchscreen displays, and DowDuPont which makes advanced polymers, will develop the basic technologies needed to make the car of tomorrow drive. Andrew Tangel reports at The Wall Street Journal: Auto makers and popular ride-hailing apps aren’t the only companies looking to cash in on the shift to … [Read more...]
Is 2017’s Most Popular Strategy in Peril?
After nine years of a bull market that has been aided by the most aggressive and sustained period of monetary stimulus in history (you didn’t forget about that did you?) index-based investing has become the go-to strategy for many investors. Year-to-date, EPFR estimates that globally, investors have dumped $436.5 billion into index funds. Actively managed funds have experienced net outflows of over $150 billion in the U.S. alone. Jack Bogle would likely be proud, but does index-based investing still make sense when a majority of the money being invested in funds is flowing to vehicles that … [Read more...]
The Truth Behind the S&P 500: Part V
As I've written to you before, the S&P is constructed somewhat like an actively managed fund. Real people choose which stocks go in, and which remain out. Robin Wigglesworth writes in the Financial Times that David Blitzer, the current head of the S&P Dow Jones' index committee, has done what few others have been able to do by created decent low risk returns. But Wigglesworth also points out that it is unlikely Blitzer's success can be maintained (that's not a knock on Blitzer who isn't attempting to generate maximum returns with his picks). It's just math. As volatility increases … [Read more...]
Trying to Prepay Your Property Taxes? Read This First
For those rushing to pre-pay 2018 property taxes in order to maintain full deductability of those sums, it might be time to examine new IRS guidance on the subject. At Bloomberg, John Voskuhl explains: U.S. taxpayers can deduct their 2018 state and local property taxes on their 2017 returns if they pay those tax bills before the end of the year -- and only if the taxes were assessed before 2018, according to the Internal Revenue Service. The federal authority’s guidance reflects an effort to address some of the confusion triggered by the tax overhaul signed by President Donald Trump last … [Read more...]
Are You Ready for the ‘Mini-Grid’?
A small German startup has connected 20,000 households that independently produce energy. The company is Sonnen. It’s virtual network allows users to buy and sell excess energy to each other at a reduced cost. The FT has more. In Germany, about 20,000 households are already part of an initiative, launched by energy storage company Sonnen, which connects homes that independently produce energy. Sonnen’s virtual network allows them to buy and sell excess energy to each other at a reduced cost. Sonnen is Europe’s largest maker of rechargeable energy storage packs. When the company launched in … [Read more...]
Is College the Best America Can Do for its Students?
In today's job market it's hard to find any well paying job that doesn't require some level of college education. But should it be that way? In Switzerland apprenticeships serve to put young people into jobs immediately upon entering the workforce. How many unproductive years of college and even grad school must American students endure before entering the workforce for jobs Swiss youths are doing straight out of high school? Switzerland is one of the most competitive nations, and home to the world's most Fortune 500 companies per capita. At the Financial Times, Ralph Atkins explains why … [Read more...]
The New Model is the Old Model in Real Estate Development
The new big thing in real estate development is walkable, mixed use neighborhoods. Obviously this is the model of real estate development when neighborhoods were allowed to grow organically. People tend to enjoy living nearer to the shops they patronize and the offices they work in, so it shouldn't be too surprising that this would work. Esther Fung reports: Despite a glut in U.S. retail space, some developers are building more, just not in the form of malls but alongside new homes in smaller chunks than before. The target clientele: younger and even some older Americans who are looking … [Read more...]
Amazon’s Nomadic Retiree Army
Every year, Amazon needs thousands of extra workers to meet the holiday crush, explains Jessica Bruder in “Meet the Camperforce, Amazon’s Nomadic Retiree Army,” Wired’s adaptation from Bruder’s book Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century. Many of them are nomadic retirees living in RVs. In Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’s estimation, a quarter of all nomadic retirees in RVs will have worked for CamperForce by 2020. Their reasons for working are not necessarily good ones and the story illustrates how quickly one’s retirement plans can be turned upside down—requiring part-time … [Read more...]
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