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Archives for April 2018

Is a 30% Correction Coming for US Stocks?

April 23, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Famed emerging markets fund manager, Mark Mobius thinks so. Even if you think Mobius is off base in his timing, be sure your portfolio is properly positioned for a 30% correction. If you are invested in the stock market long enough, a 30% correction is a near certainty. Proper preparation is essential for all investors, but it holds doubly true for retired investors and those approaching retirement who don’t have the time to recover from a big stock market drawdown. Mark Mobius, the 81-year-old investment guru, believes the U.S. stock market is set for a 30% correction that would essentially … [Read more...]

$50 Lobster Roll?

April 23, 2018 By E.J. Smith

A $50 lobster roll? Talk about sticker shock. But that’s the reality in Boston. “A combination of lousy weather, international demand, and iced-over Canadian fisheries has created a shortage that has driven whole hard-shell lobster prices to as high as $15 a pound this spring, up from about $8 a pound last year,” reports Janelle Nanos in the Boston Globe. “For chefs buying pre-shucked lobster meat for their rolls, the price has been hovering at $40 a pound, or about $8 more than a year ago, several said.” Nanos continues: Typical pricing for a lobster roll at North Square Oyster in the … [Read more...]

Can Mnuchin Hammer Out a China Trade Deal?

April 23, 2018 By Young Research

Murmurs of a possible meeting between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and his Chinese counterpart are reported this morning in The Wall Street Journal by Lingling Wei and Bob Davis. They write: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he may be heading to Beijing for trade negotiations, suggesting an easing of U.S.-China tensions that have widened to include big-name companies in both countries. Mr. Mnuchin said Saturday he is considering the China trip, and on Sunday, China’s Commerce Ministry said in a terse statement that “the Chinese side welcomes this.” The display of good will, … [Read more...]

Are Consumer Stocks Problems Fixable?

April 20, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The WSJ is reporting that the big consumer brand companies are struggling to raise prices. P&G reported that prices fell by 2% in the first quarter of 2018—primarily driven by its Gillette razors. Unilever too reported that it was only able to raise prices by 0.1% in the first quarter. A combination of Amazon and a decline in brand loyalty are blamed for the lack of pricing power. A lack of meaningful innovation and a shifting ad market may have more to do with the pricing issues at the big brands than Amazon or brand loyalty. Pricing power, innovation, and quality go hand in hand. … [Read more...]

Can EU Use Free Trade Deal to Avoid Steel Tariffs?

April 20, 2018 By Young Research

In an attempt to avoid the steel and aluminum tariffs being implemented by the Trump administration, the EU is coming back to the table on a stalled free trade agreement known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. To sweeten the deal, the EU is offering to join with the U.S. to combat Chinese trade abuses. Valentina Pop and Bojan Pancevski report: The European Union is drawing up a peace offer it hopes will end trade hostilities with the White House and avoid steel and aluminum tariffs being imposed on the bloc in two weeks’ time, according to European officials. Its … [Read more...]

Your Pre-Retirement Years: A Straightforward Way to Earn Over 9% with Vanguard Wellesley

April 19, 2018 By E.J. Smith

Over the past year, the total return for Vanguard Wellesley has been just over five and half percent. “Five and a half percent? What’s so great about that,” you might think. Well, it can be great if you’re a patient investor and you allow the miracle of compound interest, what Albert Einstein is said to have referred to as the eighth wonder of the world, to work its magic for you. Father Time can be your friend, as I will explain in a moment. Yesterday, I was speaking with a client whom I’ve been working with since his mid-50s. He’s in his early 70s now but it hardly feels like close to … [Read more...]

Where’s the Value in Tech?

April 19, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

IBM reported quarterly results this week that weren’t to Wall Street’s liking. The company beat earnings estimates, but the Street didn’t care. As is often the case in the tech sector, Wall Street is more focused on financial metrics that don’t translate into shareholder value. Revenue growth is where the brokerage community tends to focus, but it is free cash flow, dividends, and share buybacks that create shareholder value. Over the last 12 months, IBM generated $14 billion in free cash flow, paid dividends of $5.6 billion, and repurchased $3.6 billion in stock. Today, IBM is trading at less … [Read more...]

Details, Details. Amazon Unveils 100 Million Prime Members

April 19, 2018 By Young Research

In a letter to shareholders, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos unveiled that the company has 100 million subscribers to its Prime membership service. Myles Udland reports at Yahoo Finance: After declining for years to disclose how many people pay for Amazon Prime, Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos revealed on Wednesday in his annual letter to shareholders that over 100 million people globally have joined Amazon’s membership club. “13 years post-launch, we have exceeded 100 million paid Prime members globally,” Bezos wrote. “In 2017 Amazon shipped more than five billion items with Prime worldwide, and … [Read more...]

Red Alert! $164 Trillion in Global Borrowing Exceeds Pre-Financial Crisis

April 18, 2018 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The IMF is sounding the clarion call on the world's excessive debt. With $164 trillion in total debt owed, the world is further in debt than pre-Financial Crisis levels. Chris Giles writes in the Financial Times: Global debt is now more than twice the size of the value of goods and services produced every year and at 225 per cent of global gross domestic product, it is now 12 percentage points higher than at its previous peak in 2009. The fund said there was now an urgent need to reduce the burden of debt in both the private and public sectors to improve the resilience of the global … [Read more...]

Amazon Establishes Foothold in Big Box Retail with Best Buy Partnership

April 18, 2018 By Young Research

Amazon and Best Buy have announced a partnership that will combine the companies' efforts, integrating Amazon technology and reach and Best Buy's foot traffic to expand business for both. David Pierce reports on the combination at The Wall Street Journal: The two companies say they have been partners for years, and Amazon products such as Kindle e-readers have long been sold in Best Buy stores. But the new partnership brings potential benefits for both companies as sales of so-called smart TVs continue to climb. It provides Best Buy with access to Amazon’s online customers for the first … [Read more...]

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