The China Household Finance Survey run by Gan Li at Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, recently found that one fifth–that’s 20%–of Chinese homes do not have occupants. Instead these homes are owned as investments in what could be one of the world’s most distorted markets ever. Back in February of 2012, I wrote about China’s “ghost cities,” and the dangers of investing in a command economy. Government subsidies, capital controls, and excessive regulations distort the Chinese economy, making analysis of normal economic signals difficult. With Chinese shares … [Read more...]
Archives for November 2018
The Problem with Tech Stocks Today
Writing at Bloomberg, Michael Regan explains that the problems with tech stocks today "can’t be erased by a strong quarter or two." He continues: One is higher interest rates, which raise corporate borrowing costs and boost the appeal of bonds relative to stocks. Another is the Trump-induced trade war, which threatens to reshape global supply chains and make investors rethink internet companies’ overseas ambitions. Low unemployment has added labor market pressure, as exemplified by Amazon.com Inc. increasing its minimum wage. And with every discussion of social media’s role in election … [Read more...]
McDonald’s: “One of the Most Russian Companies There Is”
In a world in which sanctions and tariffs are becoming regular responses to disagreements between countries, multi-nationals like McDonald's have to toe a fine line. Upsetting business in a foreign market that has become lucrative could have a major impact on results. In Russia, McDonald's is reassuring citizens that it's very much a "local" business. Thomas Grove reports in The Wall Street Journal: MOSCOW— McDonald’s Corp. became a leading ambassador of American culture after opening its first restaurant here in the twilight of the Soviet Union. Now, as Russia-U.S. tensions rise and … [Read more...]
Is Computerized Groupthink Endangering Markets?
Markets have become more volatile in 2018 than they have been for some time. I hope you'll reread this post I wrote on September 7, 2018 and reevaluate the risk in your portfolio today. I have written to you before about my unease with program trading, especially stop losses (see here and here). Add to that the algorithmic groupthink of computerized trading and it's a nasty brew. Today the Wall Street Journal's Stephanie Yang reports: On Feb. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point-decline in history amid a tumultuous week for global markets. Although the … [Read more...]
Are You as Comfortable with Your Stocks as You Are Your Home?
The DJIA was up 545 points the day after midterms. The takeaway is that you should be comfortable with your portfolio on good days and bad. Think about where you live for example. Your home. Do you call your real estate broker when prices drop (see Zillow) for the month? Probably not. If you do, perhaps it’s a spec investment rather than a home to raise your family in. Consider your portfolio as you would your home or your family—it's something you nurture and allow to grow over your lifetime. Investing takes strength and conviction as do parenting and home-ownership. They're not for the … [Read more...]
Amazon Doesn’t Scare FedEx
With Amazon creating its own network of delivery services around the country, you may think FedEx CEO Fred Smith would be worried, but according to him, he's not. Smith thinks that rather than FedEx being hurt, the Postal Service is more likely to take a hit. Bloomberg reports: FedEx Corp. Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith isn’t sweating Amazon.com Inc.’s move to expand its own delivery network, saying the e-commerce giant is likely to take more business from the post office than the package courier. “Amazon is a good customer. We think they’ll be a bigger customer in years to come if … [Read more...]
Over One Million More Jobs than Unemployed Americans in September
The Wall Street Journal reports: The number of job openings in September fell slightly from an upwardly revised 7.29 million in August, the highest level on record. In August, openings outnumbered the unemployed by 1.06 million. Before March, job openings had never exceeded unemployed workers in more than 17 years of monthly records. Most of the decline in openings occurred in the South, the region hit by Hurricane Florence in mid-September. The average time to fill vacant job positions reached a record high of 32.3 working days in September, according to an analysis of underlying data … [Read more...]
The Best Investment Strategy is Simple, Like Analog Music
Four years ago, I told readers the story of David L. Stone, the manager of Beacon Hill Fund. The point of my story then, as it is now, was to encourage investors like you to avoid speculation, and instead to be patient with your money. Use simple strategies you can stick to in good times and in bad. Here’s what I wrote then: As I write to you, I am listening to 1960s “Soul Station” by Hank Mobley, Wynton Kelly, Paul Chambers, and Art Blakey. It is an excellent remastered LP edition of the original on a stereo system that includes a Denon quartz lock turntable from the mid-’80s, a real basic … [Read more...]
Retirement Benefits: They’re not all in Dollars, Part II
You know, not all retirement benefits are in dollars. I received this email last week: “Season ending ‘last and fast’ Pantera run over Togwotee Pass (9700 ft.) with a few of my car guy buddies. Here’s some more pics of the 1972 DeTomaso Pantera recently featured in Hot Rod. Hot Rod's Richard Prince wrote: Some of Marty Quadland’s earliest memories involve sitting in the family’s 1935 Ford cabriolet with both hands tightly gripping the steering wheel as he belched out a four-year-old’s version of a V8 exhaust note. Later on, as a way of dealing with his motion sickness in the … [Read more...]
Indexing’s Biggest Failure
Active bond managers are beating their passive peers by protecting portfolios from rising interest rates. Asjylyn Loder reports for The Wall Street Journal: Higher-priced portfolios pieced together by active money managers are handily beating the cheaper index-tracking competition, largely because they are doing a better job protecting their portfolios from rising interest rates. Investors have bulked up on passively managed portfolios since the financial crisis amid a steady drumbeat of evidence showing that most managers can’t beat the market, especially after fees. But fixed-income … [Read more...]
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