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Archives for February 2019

When You Get OLD, Things Have to Be RIGHT

February 13, 2019 By Dick Young

It all started for Chuck Berry on 21 May 1955 with Chuck’s simple three-chord--Bb, Eb7, F7 (played in A by many guitarists for ease)--recording of Maybellene, an adaption of “Ida Red,” with Jerome Green on maracas, Johnnie Johnson on piano, Jasper Thomas on drums, and the legendary Willie Dixon on bass. By the end of June 1956, “Roll Over Beethoven” ran to #29 on the Billboard charts. Berry would go on to produce hit after hit, including “School Days,” “Rock and Roll Music,” “Sweet Little Sixteen,” and “Johnny B. Goode.” Berry, the Real King of Rock & Roll, died in March of 2017, … [Read more...]

Americans Most Optimistic in 16 Years About Their Finances

February 12, 2019 By E.J. Smith

A recent Gallup Poll found that 69% of Americans believe their financial situation will improve over the next year, that's a 16 year high and only two percentage points off the all-time high of 71%. This is no surprise as measures of economic success have improved almost universally in the last two years. Major contributions to the economic improvement have been deregulation and tax cuts, which have allowed American corporations to increase earnings, hiring, pay, and investment. Gallup's Jim Norman reports: The 69% saying they expect to be better off is only two percentage points below … [Read more...]

Morgan Stanley Calls an “Earnings Recession”

February 12, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, Michael Wilson, has predicted what's known as an "earnings recession," for 2019. The FT reports: A string of disappointing forecasts from S&P 500 companies has led one of Wall Street’s leading market strategists to warn of a potential drop in earnings this year. Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, slashed his base-case estimate for 2019 earnings per share growth to 1 per cent, down from 4.3 per cent. By contrast, Wall Street’s consensus estimate calls for earnings to grow 5 per cent to $170 a share, according to … [Read more...]

Record Hiring in Canada

February 12, 2019 By Young Research

Despite some weak data, Canada's employers are hiring at a record pace. Paul Vieira reports in The Wall Street Journal: Employment in Canada surged in January, led by the biggest one-month private-sector hiring spree on record, while the unemployment rate climbed on a sharp increase in the number of young people looking for a job. The Canadian economy added a net 66,800 jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Friday. That easily smashed market expectations for a net jobs increase of 5,000, according to economists at Royal Bank of Canada. In the previous … [Read more...]

Cyber-War: Walmart Wants Amazon’s Ad Business

February 11, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

With the runaway success of Amazon's ad business, Walmart executives have become envious. They would like to replicate Amazon's success on their own websites. Bloomberg's Matthew Boyle reports: Walmart Inc. is big in almost every way—4,755 stores, 1.5 million employees and $380 billion in revenue in the U.S. alone. But one part of the world’s largest retailer remains minuscule. “We have a tiny ad business,” Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon told investors in October. “It could be bigger.” With about 300 million shoppers visiting its stores each month, according to Forrester … [Read more...]

Browns: One of the Biggest Improvements in NFL History

February 11, 2019 By E.J. Smith

In the past I've written about the usefulness of applying some math and statistics to sports. The best explanation for such benefits was Michael Lewis' book, Moneyball. The book details the methods employed by Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane to improve the team's performance. Now, Jon Hartley reports on the use of behavioral economics by the Cleveland Browns to improve from 2017's sad 0-16 losing record to 2018's 7-8-1 record, one of the biggest single-season improvements in NFL history. No surprise here, there's a big time Billy Beane connection. Hartley writes: The turnaround was … [Read more...]

Earnings Predictions Scare Investors

February 11, 2019 By Young Research

Earnings growth has begun to slow, and investors are getting worried. Justin Lahart reports for The Wall Street Journal: The earnings slowdown owes something to last year’s corporate tax cut reaching its anniversary date: Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub calculates that the tax cut added about 7 percentage points to earnings growth in the fourth quarter. The slowdown also owes something to one big company: Apple . First-quarter estimates for the iPhone maker, which accounted for over 4% of S&P 500 net income last year, have come down sharply since the company issued a … [Read more...]

Build Your Investment Strategy for the Field of Play

February 8, 2019 By Dick Young

Are you a trader or speculator? Or are you long term investor saving for a comfortable retirement? What’s your field of play? In December of 2011 I wrote to readers explaining that each sport is dependent on the field of play. Coaches and players enter the game with a clear understanding of what they are trying to achieve, and the area within which they are trying to achieve it. Does that describe your current investment planning picture? If not, your first step is understanding your field of play. I wrote: Football, baseball, soccer, hockey—each has something in common that can be … [Read more...]

Can America Afford the Green New Deal?

February 8, 2019 By E.J. Smith

The short answer is, no. The Green New Deal is a pie in the sky statement of Utopian dreams. The resolution calls for rebuilding every American building, ending all traditional forms of energy production within ten years, building trains across the oceans with capacity great enough to replace all air travel, and other similarly unachievable measures. The renewable energy generation measures alone would cost around $5.7 trillion. The 14 page resolution's other demands would cost many trillions of dollars more, and would impose hardship on every American family by forcing them to renovate … [Read more...]

Germany Doesn’t Like Facebook’s Data Collection

February 8, 2019 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Germany has begun a crackdown on internet companies by telling Facebook it may no longer collect data about users across the internet without their consent. The move is a direct hit to Facebook's business model. Sam Schechner and Sara Germano report for The Wall Street Journal: Germany ordered Facebook FB -0.70% to stop combining data it collects about users’ activities across the internet without their consent, a novel application of competition law that strikes at a cornerstone of the social-media giant’s business model. In a decision issued Thursday, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office, the … [Read more...]

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