The Fed has gotten praise from both sides of the aisle for acting quickly and boldly in recent weeks. Who doesn’t like a bailout when it stops their portfolio value from cascading? Well…cascading if you consider a rise in investment-grade corporate bond yields from 2% to 4.5% during what is likely the greatest and most abrupt halting of economic activity in modern history. For some perspective, we’ve included the chart on the Bloomberg Barclay’s Investment Grade Corporate bond index below. During the pandemic, yields rose a little higher than their year-end 2018 level and they were half of … [Read more...]
Archives for May 2020
Governors Gone Wild Protect the Rich
Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part XXXIX You’re seeing up close how blue state governors love states’ rights only when they’re in charge and what a mess it creates when different rules apply across state lines. Take a look at Rhode Island and Massachusetts, for example. Rhode Island has shelter in place until next Monday, May 9, while in Massachusetts the end date is May 18. Yet, Rhode Island is more strict, prohibiting groups larger than five while Massachusetts allows ten. My parents and my sister’s family live in Massachusetts. When we gather, we make a group of ten. That’s … [Read more...]
You can Bank on This: There Will be Problems
This is getting old. Walking our dog around Newport yesterday, my daughter said how weird it feels seeing all the shops and restaurants empty. We walk the same route regularly and have for years. We never stop at the shops and restaurants, but it feels good imagining what’s going on inside. I didn’t want to go down this road with you this morning, but will we ever get back to business as usual? You and I know a lot of these restaurants can’t make the numbers work, and staffing is an issue at least until the end of July when unemployment benefits are lifted. Then there’s the issue of a … [Read more...]
Why Crude Oil Could Be Immune to the Coronavirus
Cuneyt Kazokoglu explains why, despite the damage the worldwide coronavirus shutdown has done to the oil market, crude won't be killed by the virus. He writes in the FT: The coronavirus crisis has thrown the oil market out of balance and like other forecasters, we expect an unprecedented contraction in oil demand this year. But while some are arguing that we have seen the peak in 2019 with consumption never recovering, if anything, the pandemic is likely to significantly delay the structural transformation of the world’s economy away from oil. Although global consumption will fall this … [Read more...]
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