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Archives for August 2020

EJ-When I Read Your Piece: “You Want Maine Lobster”

August 14, 2020 By E.J. Smith

EJ- When I read your piece “You Want Maine Lobster” it brought back memories of my days of frequent trips to the Boston area. My biggest customer at the time (1971-1978 or so) was Air Force Systems Command at Hanscom AFB. I was there probably two times a month for several years, sometimes staying over a weekend if we were negotiating a contract or other lengthy meetings. We almost always had one dinner at a roadside restaurant along a dark rural stretch of some road, possibly 2A. I don't remember the name of the place, but I always got a chicken lobster, fries and a beer or two. I think … [Read more...]

5 Lessons That Should Have Been Learned from the COVID Crash

August 14, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

S&P 500 nears a new record! It’s a shocking statement considering the economic environment. Unemployment is at 10%, personal income after backing out government assistance is still in the tank, entire industries are at risk of failing, and S&P 500 earnings are down about 30% from year-end 2019 levels. How are stock prices on the verge of hitting a new high? Look no further than the extraordinary actions of the Federal Reserve. That’s not meant to be a compliment. The Fed printed trillions in a matter of weeks and their actions to bail out everything--from money markets … [Read more...]

“E.J./Survival Guy what a RELIEF to be out of the City”

August 13, 2020 By E.J. Smith

You’re telling me you want peace of mind and security for your family and that you’re sick and tired of the unrest in your city. You’re also telling me you beat inertia and packed your bags. Don’t despair over all the boxes. From a client: “E.J./Survival Guy,” We finally completed our move this last week and our new address is: (not in the city). We are still waiting for our land line phone to be hooked up so you can reach us on the cell. We want to send the proceeds of our sale to our Fidelity account for you to manage. What a RELIEF to be out of the city. Talk to you soon.” Your … [Read more...]

It Happens Suddenly

August 13, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

In the short-run, sentiment matters as much if not more than fundamentals. In the long run, it is fundamentals that win out. The push and pull between sentiment and fundamentals drives many investors to make emotionally charged decisions that sabotage portfolio performance. Stocks can climb higher slowly over a period of years and then crash suddenly, wiping out years of gains. Take the NYSE Composite Index as an example, because--let’s face it--the S&P is no longer representative of a broad portfolio of stocks. From year-end 2012 through February 12, 2020 (7+ years), the NYSE … [Read more...]

Here’s Why You Know Investor Enthusiasm is Overheated

August 12, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Seeing the results of Apple’s decision to split its stock (a higher share price), Elon Musk, the world’s greatest stock promoter and decent car manufacturer, decided to split Tesla’s shares. Sure enough, Musk’s bet has paid off with Tesla’s shares rising almost 7% on the news. This is true even though a stock split simply divides the pie into more pieces. Institutional investors should pay attention here. The assumption that large stocks are priced rationally because there is no way the smart money in a stock this big ($250 billion plus cap) falls apart if a stock split results in a 7% … [Read more...]

Investing in the Fog

August 12, 2020 By E.J. Smith

You’re telling me about the fortunes to be made in bitcoin and blockchain and I’m telling you the bloom is off the rose. If you’re reading about it, chances are the fortunes have been made or they will be when the buyer pockets your money. Remember, as Andy Kessler writes, investing can be like navigating in the fog. If you can see the bridge, you’re too late. … [Read more...]

Even Horrible Businesses Can Make Money at These Rates

August 11, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Thanks to a bailout of the corporate bond market by the Fed that has institutionalized moral hazard (I get the reward, you take the risk), junk bond issuers are paying rates of less than 3%. Ball Corp, which is rated BB+ sold $1 billion worth of 10-year bonds at a coupon of 2.875% this week. Ball corp. isn’t a horrible business, but at rates this low, even horrible businesses can make money. The rate distortion is even more disturbing in the investment-grade market. Google, an AA-rated company, recently issued 5-year bonds at a 0.45% interest rate. What will Google, which generates … [Read more...]

Yes, You’ve Met Ronald Read in Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report

August 10, 2020 By E.J. Smith

You may be familiar with Ronald Read’s story. It’s a story worth telling over and over and over again to anyone you know. My father in law Dick Young wrote in May 2015: Hard to even comprehend, but this great story, courtesy the WSJ‘s Anna Prior, recounts how Ronald Read accumulated an estate valued at almost $8 million. Mr. Read, who passed away at the age of 92, made a modest living pumping gas for many years at a Gulf gas station in Brattleboro, Vermont. A Five-Inch Stack of Stock Certificates How did Ronald Read manage to become a multi-millionaire? Mr. Read invested in dividend-paying … [Read more...]

The Genesis of Biden’s Capital Gains Tax Proposal

August 10, 2020 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

A President Biden would double the tax rate on capital gains. The highest marginal rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 39.6%. Add on the Obamacare surtax of 3.8% and you are looking at a 43.4% tax rate on capital gains. Why does Biden want to increase the capital gains tax rate? Do higher capital gains rates lead to more tax revenue? It’s not even close. Lower, not higher, capital gains rates generate more capital gains tax revenue. So why the focus on capital gains tax rate? For Biden and the progressive Left it’s about closing the wealth gap. Will higher capital gains … [Read more...]

Your Retirement Life: “You Want Maine Lobster”

August 7, 2020 By E.J. Smith

You’re telling me you want Maine Lobster. Lucky you, you’ve come to the right place. Allow me to set your table. Before we dig in to that sweet, juicy, mouth-watering bite of warm buttered lobster, a word to the wise: Bigger isn’t necessarily better. It just means bigger, and oftentimes, bitter. The sweet spot is 1 1/2 lbs, give or take, and if you like the delectable red roe (coral), a female is for you. Call our local seafood market before 5 pm, and they’ll steam ‘em for you or call our friends at the Trenton Bridge Lobster Pound, and they’ll ship ‘em live to your door. Now, in terms of … [Read more...]

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