Don't call it a "supercycle." That's the message from economic researchers Jumana Saleheen and Lavan Mahadeva from the commodities consultancy, CRU. They suggest this is no Kondratieff Cycle, but rather a shorter business cycle set off by the pandemic. They write: Commodity prices have surged to very high levels this year. Iron ore and copper prices hit all-time highs before falling back after Beijing moved to curb prices. Aluminium prices are elevated and oil prices are fluctuating at about $75 a barrel. So are we at the start of a new commodities supercycle? Our view is that we are … [Read more...]
Archives for June 2021
Fire! Run for the Exits! Carbon Credits Explode
Fire! Run for the exits! Another big bank has entered the carbon credit markets. I bet this is more about EGO than saving trees. It’s a perfect Wall Street creation: offer a way for the elite to offset their private jet wash by scrubbing it clean with carbon credits. What’s a carbon credit, you ask? It’s basically a way for you to give money to tree owners, for example, to not cut them down, and to save the environment. I’m serious. But you and I know it’s more about “what’s in your wallet?” Or as the Discover card double points rep says: “More money, more money!” The big boys know how to … [Read more...]
Central Banks Pick Up Fight Against Crypto
Here comes the mainstream economics establishment (late to the party as always) trying to kill crypto before it gains too much acceptance and risks replacing fiat money. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is out with a report trashing crypto. According to the BIS, Bitcoin has no redeeming qualities. We can think of at least one. In contrast to the U.S. dollar, which can be printed and debased at will, there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin (or there will be). The U.S. dollar has lost over 80% of its purchasing power over the last 50 years. That has everything to do with an … [Read more...]
Chip Shortage: Why You Can’t Even Buy a Car Today
As the tension between China and Taiwan builds, there’s hope WWIII can be avoided thanks to a little-known manufacturer that supplies the world’s computer chips. Little known might not be the appropriate description for the 11th most valuable company in the world. But how many of your friends know about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)—manufacturer of the world’s most sophisticated chips? My guess is not many until the WSJ did a feature this weekend: The company makes almost all of the world’s most sophisticated chips, and many of the simpler ones, too. They’re in billions of … [Read more...]
Does Anybody Still Care About Instagram?
Elaine Moore wonders at FT when Instagram got so boring. Was it all just a fad? She writes: When did Instagram get so boring? The photo sharing app, once the apple of Facebook’s eye, has spent years rebuffing accusations of toxicity. But tedium is a painful new problem. The shift poses a threat to Instagram’s money-making abilities just as its owner’s market valuation approaches a trillion dollars. It is difficult to know whether Instagram has changed or its users have simply grown up. The millennials who made Instagram into a phenomenon are creeping towards middle age, after all. … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy’s Disney Trip Part II/Heart Strings/College…YOU
OK, here’s what’s on Your Survival Guy’s mind this morning, one week after returning from the happiest place on earth (You can read about our Disney trip here). The last time we were at Disney was ten years ago. There’s a picture in our house of Izzy and Owen standing in front of the entrance of the Magic Kingdom with all the flowers and the train station in the background. Every time I walk by that picture, I remember that day like it was yesterday. While we were getting ready for this trip, Izzy, soon to be twenty, said to Becky and me, “I don’t need you two falling apart crying … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Fourth of July Fireworks, Running HOT
How ya doin’? I hope you’re looking forward to spending a stress-free Fourth of July with family and friends. You deserve it. But before you do, let’s visit my latest RAGE Gauge reading. You know inflation is running hot every time you open your electric bill or open your fridge. You’re also seeing it with high gold prices (though they have come down a bit) as investors question their faith in the almighty Fed. Gun sales are slowing a bit, and ammo prices are off their peak as stimulus checks begin to slow. If you want a gun, you probably already have it by now or are in a holding … [Read more...]
Big Banks Brewing Buyback Bonanza
America's big banks are preparing to buyback shares from investors once they pass government stress tests. Joshua Franklin explains in the Financial Times: America’s biggest banks will learn the results of their latest stress tests from the US Federal Reserve this week, with a passing grade expected to be a catalyst for billions of dollars in stock buybacks and dividends. The expectation that banks will return more money to shareholders is a sign of how well the US banking sector has fared during the pandemic. The likes of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have been bolstered by government … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy’s DISNEY: Rise of the Resistance: Part I
Your Survival Guy is here to report that Walt Disney World is open for business. And if you’re in love with Star Wars, like my family is, then you need to check out Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance at Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge inside Disney’s Hollywood Studios, where you feel like you’re in a galaxy far, far away… But, before you go, there’s some groundwork that needs to be covered. First, you need a reservation for the days you wish to visit a Walt Disney World (WDW) park. As we started our planning, we looked at the WDW calendar and found reservations for Disney Hollywood Studios to be sold … [Read more...]
Is the Market Repeating 2000?
James Mackintosh makes the case in the Wall Street Journal that today's market looks awfully similar to that of 1999-2000. He writes: Is the dot-com bust happening again right under our noses? It might seem an odd claim, but there is a remarkable resemblance between the speculative boom-to-bust of late 1999 and the first half of 2000 and what’s happened over the past nine months in the fashionable areas of clean energy, electric cars, cannabis stocks and SPACs. If the parallel continues it bodes ill for investors who joined the excess late. The trendy stocks—led by Tesla—are already down a … [Read more...]