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Archives for August 2021

THE NEXT BIG SHORT: Paulson Predicts Crypto Will Go to Zero

August 31, 2021 By E.J. Smith

You may remember hedge fund manager John Paulson from the movie The Big Short. He was the one that couldn’t believe what was happening in the real estate market and believed the system would implode. He was right. Now he’s dead against cryptocurrencies, much like Your Survival Guy. In a recent interview with Bloomberg's David Rubenstein, Paulson described cryptocurrencies as "a limited supply of nothing."  He also predicted the speculative asset would go to zero. The NY Post reports: Hedge fund manager John Paulson made $20 billion predicting the downfall of the US housing market in 2008. … [Read more...]

Fed to Receive New “Woke” Mandates?

August 31, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Most people familiar with the Federal Reserve have heard of the bank's "dual mandate" to balance unemployment and inflation, and maybe they are even familiar with its much-ignored requirement to maintain the stability of the currency. Now, progressives in Congress and are pushing Joe Biden to fire current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, so he can be replaced with someone who will refocus the Fed's mission on "eliminating climate risk and advancing racial and economic justice." If that were even possible, it would mean an end to Federal Reserve independence. The new "woke" mandates are being … [Read more...]

South Korea Slaps Google and Apple for Payment Monopolies

August 31, 2021 By Young Research

South Korea has become the first country in the world to limit Big Tech companies' payment systems. CNBC's Saheli Roy Choudhury reports: South Korea’s parliament has approved a bill that will make it the first country to impose curbs on Google and Apple’s payment policies that force developers to only use the tech giants’ proprietary billing systems. The legislation will become law once signed by President Moon Jae-in, whose party has been a vocal supporter of the bill. Apple and Google’s policies usually require developers to pay the tech giants a commission as high as 30% of every … [Read more...]

Is the Market Bracing for a Correction?

August 30, 2021 By E.J. Smith

In The Wall Street Journal, Karen Langley reports on some shifting in the market that is taking place, with shares of defensive stocks taking a leading role. Moves like this have sometimes signaled preparation in the market for a correction. She writes: Some of the hottest stocks in the U.S. are pointing to an economic cool-down. Utilities and healthcare are among the best-performing groups in the S&P 500 so far this quarter, with gains of 7.8% and 6.6%, respectively, compared with a 4.9% rise in the broad stock index. Big winners include utility NextEra Energy Inc., NEE +0.25% which … [Read more...]

CVS: Maybe Soon You Could Pay for Therapy with ExtraBucks

August 30, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

CVS is testing a service that offers mental health counseling in stores around America. The drug store is not alone, as Walgreens and Walmart are also experimenting with similar services. Sharon Terlep reports for The Wall Street Journal: CVS Health Corp. CVS +0.44% is betting Americans will get therapy at the same place they buy their snacks, soda and prescription drugs. The pharmacy company is among several retailers including Walmart Inc. WMT +0.58% and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., WBA +0.35% that are experimenting with offering counseling services in or near stores. They see … [Read more...]

September Rage Gauge Update: High RISK ALERT

August 27, 2021 By E.J. Smith

If you’re paying attention to what’s going on in Afghanistan and here at home with COVID you have reasons for concern. Let me remind you, my Rage Gauge right now is at full tilt, high RISK. Clearly those in power seek a different future than what you and I may have in mind for our families and loved ones. A future where they decide how you live your life. A great RESET is in the works. Pay attention. Now, is when you prepare accordingly not when more danger arrives at your doorstep. Your Survival Guy talks with investors like you every single day. Don’t let inertia ruin your future when you … [Read more...]

Can We Still Afford the Riverboat Cruise?

August 27, 2021 By E.J. Smith

Are you falling for the oldest trick in the book? Here’s how it reads. Managers today draw you in with low-cost index funds and past performance—not necessarily in that order. Then, once you’re in the door, they sell you on other stuff, like toxic variable annuities, until you’re blue in the face. It’s hard not to fall for the sales pitch. I get it. Here’s what happens. It’s Sunday morning. You don’t have a care in the world. Frank Sinatra is playing in the background. Life is good. Then you peel open the quarterly funds report in the Journal and look at the performance like a box score … [Read more...]

How Young Investors Get Advice

August 27, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The WSJ has a must read on how a new generation of investor is getting investment advice. Youtube channels and discord groups run by folk with no formal background or knowledge of investing have apparently taken the place of licensed professionals . What could go wrong? Below are some of the highlights, but the full article is well worth your time. This is the belief system and behavior we start to see near market tops. An entire generation of young investors doesn't know what a bear market looks like. Sadly prudence and skepticism have gone out of favor. You can read the entire article … [Read more...]

IT’S A GAMBLE: First Bitcoin ETF Will Be Loaded with Risk

August 26, 2021 By E.J. Smith

Fund companies are racing hard to be the first to offer a bitcoin ETF. The Wall Street Journal's Michael Wursthorn reports on the risks of such funds, writing: Despite the additional safeguards, investors in such funds would have to deal with issues associated with trading futures, as well as the risks around cryptocurrencies. Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual-fund research at CFRA, warned that futures-based ETFs rarely replicate the performance of the underlying market they track. The reason is pricing fluctuations between futures contracts and the spot market, especially if demand … [Read more...]

World’s Largest Chip Maker is Raising Prices 20%

August 26, 2021 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Inflation is transitory according to the Fed. Powell and company tell us it is supply constraints that are boosting prices. While this may be true to some extent, excess demand from trillions being dumped on consumers by governments and pumped into the financial system by central banks is also having an impact and potentially a more lasting impact. The WSJ reports today that Taiwan Semiconductor is raising prices on its most basic chips by up to 20% and 10% for its more advanced chips. Taiwan semi is the world's largest chip maker. You can be sure others will follow suit. With demand as … [Read more...]

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