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Archives for February 2022

GUNS AND MONEY: Ukraine Proves Every Home Should Stock Guns and Cash

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With so many unknowns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, what is clear is that having an armed citizenry works in street-to-street combat. Before getting into the devastating potential for a Russian nuclear attack, let’s focus on self-defense. Because it is pride for one's home and country and the ability to fight back that makes self-defense work. This is not a sophisticated subject. Give your people the ability to defend themselves, and chances are they will. Look at the food lines in Ukraine this Monday morning wrapped around buildings peacefully waiting for their turn. We’ve seen … [Read more...]

Are Planned Fed Interest Rate Hikes Too Little Too Late?

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Has the Federal Reserve set itself up for failure on inflation? It sure seems that way according to Colby Smith and Caitlin Gilbert writing in the Financial Times: The Federal Reserve will fail to control inflation if it delivers only six quarter-point rate rises this year as markets expect, according to almost half of leading academics polled by the Financial Times. The survey, conducted by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in partnership with the FT, suggests the US central bank risks moving too slowly in shifting monetary policy away … [Read more...]

Investors: By the Time You Realize This, It’s Too Late

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"If the Phone 'Doesn't Ring, 'It's Me" -- Jimmy Buffett You 'don't need to hear from me to know your breaking point. Because when you think to yourself, "We can't afford to lose more," and you say the same words to your spouse, that's when you know it's too late. And like clockwork, you sell until you can sleep. My take? You've been on a path that was always destined to end poorly. Sure, it would be easy if markets went straight up. But they don't. Prices change, and it's in times like these you're either comfortable with your financial plan, or you're not. There's not a whole lot of … [Read more...]

A Penny Saved Is a Penny Burned

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Investors are reducing their bets on speculative "penny" stocks. According to FINRA, trades of over-the-counter (OTC) stocks have fallen each month for the last 11 months straight. Nicholas Megaw reports for FT: Many of the riskiest areas of financial markets experienced a surge in activity at the height of the coronavirus pandemic, with amateur traders attracted by rebounding asset prices, government stimulus cheques and an escape from lockdown boredom. However, the Finra figures are the latest sign of their retreat as volatility rises and the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest … [Read more...]

WAR HAS BEGUN: What Advice Are You Giving Your Loved Ones?

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OK, in my conversations with you, you’re obviously concerned. You’re seeing a White House Spokeswoman tell you with a straight face that higher prices are a “sacrifice” we all have to make. That’s just stupid. Has there ever been a more out of touch administration? How about blue-state politicians and corporate elite? They recently figured out where Kyiv is on a map and tell us we need to defend it. Why? What about defending our southern border? What about all the energy that’s untapped here? Why are we letting Putin push us around? How much money is the Biden family beholden to in Ukraine? … [Read more...]

Oil Prices Soar on Russian Attack

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Oil and natural gas prices are soaring on the news of a Russian attack on Ukraine. Oil prices are back above $100 per barrel. A perfect storm of excess global liquidity, years of starving oil and gas companies of capital in favor of alternative energy producers, and a major oil producer disrupting the current world order could see prices spike even higher. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an undeniable reminder that oil remains the world’s most important commodity. Joe Wallace and Jenny Strasburg report for The Wall Street Journal: A global oil benchmark surged above $100 a barrel for the … [Read more...]

CONSTANT BATTLE: Survival Prep Isn’t Something You Do in a Day

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You know how Your Survival Guy feels about being prepared on the water, food, self-defense, and cash front, to name a few. You must deal with each item individually and perform stress tests regularly to see where you stand. In times like these, it’s not getting any cheaper, so imagine how you’ll feel a year from today if everything you want is even more expensive? You need to act now. Yesterday, for example, in speaking with a client about the stock market, we transitioned to survival prep, including a discussion about our cash on hand. Then we reviewed a common question: How much of your … [Read more...]

Has the Day of the Shorts Finally Arrived?

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Short bets on the S&P 500 are soaring, and the price of the index has dropped for days. Has the day short investors have been waiting for finally arrived? Bloomberg reports: Whatever happens in Ukraine or how it affects Federal Reserve policy, the outcome will land in markets where investors have had time to prepare for the worst. It may be one reason the worst has so far been avoided. They’ve been steadily boosting bets against equities, shaking off a reluctance to short tracing to last year’s meme stock upheaval. Bearish bets on the largest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P … [Read more...]

Retiring in Biden’s America Means Accepting Some Hard Truths

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OK, it’s not pretty out there. You’re living your life. Everything is expensive. Talk about sticker shock. When filling up your car is enough to make you fall over at the pump—never mind the price of everything else in your life—inflation is real. Forget the 7.5% headline inflation. That doesn’t do justice to what you and I are paying in our own lives. In my conversations with you, for example, you’re telling me that the cost for shipping containers is up 300%, to be kind, and as much as 500% when all costs are included—not 7.5%. And yet the Biden admin talks to you like it’s transitory. It’s … [Read more...]