Fed Policy and Inflation Risk, Martin Feldstein, Project Syndicate Physician Organizations Voluntarily Heal Themselves To Save Healthcare Dollars, Rick Ungar, Forbes MasterCard warns of possible security breach, Visa also reportedly affected, FoxNews U.S. corporate tax rate is tops, Kent Hoover, Buffalo Business First Brazil’s growth engine requires fuel of skilled labour, Adrian Saldanha, Financial Post … [Read more...]
Gas Prices Threaten the Economy
Tight global oil supplies and tensions with Iran (among other factors) have pushed retail gasoline prices back above $4 per gallon. When gasoline prices surged to near $4 per gallon last year, economic growth slowed as purchases cut into consumers’ discretionary spending power. Should we expect another downturn in consumer spending now that gas is near $4 per gallon again? Gasoline prices have only been near $4/gallon for a few weeks, but the evidence suggests lower gasoline consumption (see chart below) and falling utility bills are offsetting the higher cost of gasoline. Over the last … [Read more...]
FOMC Minutes Paint a Dismal Picture for Savers
If you were unlucky enough to have to read the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) released yesterday, you may have been disturbed by what you found. Within the notes on the view of the Federal Reserve Governors and Presidents in attendance (a.k.a. participants) you would have noted words and phrases like; uncertain, cautious, mixed, less strength, remained weak, remained depressed, gains might not be sustained, increased moderately, still sluggish, unemployment remained elevated, etc. Even optimistic notes from the Fed were guarded. On the euro-area crisis: In … [Read more...]
Manufacturers Giving Markets Mixed Signals
The ISM Manufacturing Report on Business was released this morning and produced a composite index result that was slightly better than a survey of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted it would be. You can see on our chart that the index is trending up slowly. The components of the index were broadly optimistic, but some that tend to the lead the market left doubt about the future. The Conference-Board uses ISM’s New Orders index as a component in its Leading Economic Index. In the recent report, the ISM New Orders index continued growing, but at a slower rate than in February. … [Read more...]
Dr. Doom Forecasts ‘Massive Wealth Destruction’
America’s Standard of Living at Stake
Are consumers confused? Earlier this week the Conference-Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell slightly on concerns consumers have over the short-term health of the economy. But they seem more bullish long-term. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference-Board’s Consumer Research Center said “Consumer Confidence pulled back slightly in March, after rising sharply in February. The moderate decline was due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook, while consumers’ assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, continued to improve.” Meanwhile in the University of Michigan Consumer … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 3-30-12
The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed, John B. Taylor, The Wall Street Journal The White House should stop coddling Buffett, Benn Steil, FT.com Ben Bernanke's Shocking Gold Standard Ignorance, Louis Woodhill, Real Clear Markets Technology can push our crazy buttons, rewire brains, Sharon Jayson, USA TODAY MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says, Phil Mattingly and Silla Brush, Bloomberg … [Read more...]
Economic Mirages
Yesterday the markets were looking for the Durable Goods report to show an increase of 3% in new orders. The numbers disappointed however, with growth of only 2.2% reported. You can see an odd pattern for the last seven months on our chart—lackluster growth sandwiching two optimistic months of 3% plus growth in November and December of 2011. At the end of 2011 companies rushed to take advantage of an accounting gimmick that allowed them to expense their purchases for 2011 immediately, saving them on taxes. But before and after the rush, growth in Durable Goods orders was anemic. This is … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Economist David Rosenberg on U.S. Growth, Markets
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He speaks with Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu and on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
Retirement No Time for Whipsaw Portfolio Volatility
A basic understanding of the arithmetic of portfolio losses can help you become a more comfortable confident investor. Our chart of the arithmetic of portfolio losses shows investors what returns they’ll need to make up for portfolio losses. The horizontal axis shows the assumed portfolio loss incurred. The vertical axis shows the portfolio gain required to break even. … [Read more...]
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