Typical U.S. Family Got Poorer During the Past 10 Years, Dennis Cauchon and Barbara Hansen, USA TODAY An Economy In Trouble, Amity Shlaes, The Wall Street Journal The 2013 Tax Cliff, The Wall Street Journal Fidelity Names New Manager for Struggling Magellan Fund, The Associated Press … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 9-9-11
Will the IMF Stand Up to Europe? Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate What Austerity? The Wall Street Journal Buffett's Latest Tax Break The Wall Street Journal Why the Stimulus Failed The Wall Street Journal Is Inflation the Answer? Raghuram Rajan, Project Syndicate … [Read more...]
Meltzer on Fed’s Evans, U.S. Labor Market, Obama
What We’re Reading 8-26-11
Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis How Not to Grow an Economy The Wall Street Journal Just How Bad Is Bad? Foreign Policy Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco … [Read more...]
Inflation Threatens Long Bond Yield
The Labor Department released July numbers for consumer, producer, and import price inflation this week. The results were troubling. Consumer prices increased 3.6% compared to last year, producer prices increased by 7.6%, and import prices increased by a whopping 14%. Even the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation (core consumer price inflation, known as core CPI, which is inflation minus food and fuel) came in ahead of expectations. Core CPI increased by 1.8% over the last year. The Fed’s unspoken growth target for core CPI is 2%. Because the Fed still believes inflation is … [Read more...]
A Historic Week
Even with the relatively calm day in the markets on Friday, this past week has been one of the most volatile on record. Only during the 2008 financial crisis, the 1987 stock market crash, and the Great Depression have stock prices been as volatile as they were this past week. … [Read more...]
What we’re Reading 8-12-11
Mexico Sells $1 Billion of 100-Year Bonds to Tap Into Drop in U.S. Yields Bloomberg Mistakes in Scientific Studies Surge The Wall Street Journal Business and Health-Care Reform Unfortunate Side-Effects The Economist Warren Buffett Is Wrong On Taxes The Wall Street Journal In Plain Language: Stop the Digging NFIB … [Read more...]
Worst 5 Bear Markets
Developed world equity markets have been hammered in recent weeks. In U.S. dollar terms, many have entered bear market territory—defined as a peak-to-trough decline of at least 20%. We have compiled a slideshow of the 5 MSCI developed world stock market indices with the biggest bear market losses. If you are curious, the U.S. is one of the few MSCI developed country stock markets that has managed to avoid a peak-to-trough drop of 20%. … [Read more...]
It’s Jobs Day
The Labor Department released the July employment report this morning. The headline numbers that economists follow are the monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Economists were looking for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 85,000 in July. The actual figure was 117,000, and when you add back the 23,000 jobs that were lost in state government due almost entirely to a partial shutdown of the Minnesota government, you have a nonfarm payroll number closer to 140,000. Not bad, but not nearly enough to get this economy moving. Assuming a 140,000 gain in payrolls in July, the … [Read more...]
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Update
The S&P 500 has now clearly carved out the head-and-shoulders top formation I wrote about in Young Research’s last two technical analysis updates. The price action in the market has a real weak look. Stocks blew threw their widely followed 200-day moving average and headed straight to their next support level near 1,200. The S&P 500 is down almost 8% in August alone. If the market can’t hold the 1,200-ish level, the index is likely headed to the 1,100 – 1,150 level where there is significant support. … [Read more...]