Earnings Catch Wall Street by Surprise
Last week the market was surprised by an unintentionally early release from Google, which reported earnings much lower than analysts had expected. But Google wasn’t alone in missing earnings estimates. Chipotle Mexican Grill, General Electric, Ingersoll-Rand, Baker Hughes, Honeywell and others also came in below estimates, disappointing shareholders. But should analysts and investors be surprised? As you can see in the chart below, margins (estimated using corporate profits as a percent of GDP) maxed out in the fourth quarter of last year. Companies did all they could to boost margins … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 10-19-12
Bernanke Advocates Stronger Currencies, Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal In boom times or bust, balance has made the difference, Vanguard Gas Market Stung by Rapid Traders, Dicolo and Rogow, Wall Street Journal The Fed’s mission creep, George F. Will, Washington Post … [Read more...]
The Truth about Last Week’s Jobless Claims
Last week we cautioned you to be skeptical of the weekly jobless claims numbers. They didn’t include quarterly claims from California, the nation’s most populous state, and therefore looked like they had improved much more than they had in reality. This week that theory was proven correct, as last week’s numbers were revised upward, and today’s reported claims were the highest in 13 weeks. … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Lagarde – Fiscal cliff a big risk
Manufacturing’s Renaissance Faltering in New York
For the third consecutive month, the Empire State Manufacturing Index indicated that the manufacturing industry in New York is declining. Any value below zero indicates that manufacturing in New York is shrinking. The October survey recorded a -6.2. Many manufacturers reported a decline in the availability of credit, and indicated that business conditions in New York are deteriorating. The decline in credit availability comes at a time when manufacturers are increasing their demand for financing. The report says “the share of manufacturers reporting a tightening in credit was almost … [Read more...]
VIDEO: What Are Estonia’s Lessons for Europe?
Oct. 12 (CNBC) — Jürgen Ligi, Estonia's finance minister tells CNBC how Estonia transformed from an economy that shrank 18 percent in 08/09 to then become an economy that grew over eight percent three years later. … [Read more...]
The Rich Get Richer Explained
What We’re Reading 10-12-12
The Mathematicization of Economics, John Aziz, Azizonomics Obama's Disappearing $5 Trillion, Review & Outlook, Wall Street Journal So Long Price-Earnings, Hello Price-Expectations, Romain Hatchuel, Wall Street Journal CEO to Workers: I May Fire You if Obama Wins, Robert Frank, CNBC Beware the ‘central bank put’ bubble, Mohamed El-Erian, Financial Times Prepping for Obamacare, Chain Cuts Workers' Hours, AP Mysterious Algorithm Was 4% of Trading Activity Last Week, John Melloy, CNBC IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump, Sandrine Rastello, … [Read more...]
Jobless Claims Jive
The report on weekly initial jobless claims was released this morning to much fanfare. The number of new claims fell by 30,000 to 339,000, the lowest since February of 2008. The bottom of the consensus range of predictions in Bloomberg’s survey of economists was 362,000, or a drop of only 5,000 claims. But the reported numbers are misleading. One state (analysts assume it’s California), didn’t report its figures for the quarter. The Labor Department failed to mention any anomalies in the data in the official press release, but told Dow Jones later through a spokesperson “one large state … [Read more...]
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