I have written in the past that politics can have a great effect on market performance. Today America is enduring one of the most contentious political climates in memory, and at the same time the stock market has become volatile. The best year in the four-year presidential election cycle is the year before the election. In this cycle that’s 2019. Since 1875, the average performance of the S&P 500 in the calendar year before a presidential election has been 14.3%. The presidential election year itself comes in next with an average of 10.9%, and midterm election years and the year after … [Read more...]
Are You Investing in the Armored Truck of Financial Markets?
Are your investments characterized by the flash and speed of a supercar, or the reliability and protection of a Brinks truck? There’s nothing wrong with a super powered automobile made to take on curves at maximum speed, but the power that makes those machines exciting, is also what breaks their parts. All that torque can be hard on an automobile. Meanwhile, the massive diesel engines and reinforced steel protective bodies of armored trucks make sure its cargo reaches the destination. Back in 1990 I called Treasuries “the armored Brinks truck of financial markets.” I was responding to … [Read more...]
Most People Aren’t Measuring Performance Correctly: Here’s How
When you measure performance in your portfolio, are you getting the right picture? If you are like most investors, the answer is no. Here is what I wrote in December 2013 about how you should be measuring performance: Cycles and Investment Success Understanding cycles is vital to your long-term investment success. Most folk intuitively understand that the economy and the financial markets go through cycles. The economy expands and then it contracts, the stock market rises and falls, interest rates go up and they go down. Cycles just come with the territory in a free market economy, but … [Read more...]
What Will Happen if Trump Increases Tariffs on China?
This week President Trump said it would be “highly unlikely” that he would hold off on increasing many tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. Analysts are asking, what will happen if he goes forward with his plan? The media is answering that question with a spectrum of possibilities ranging from apocalypse to Armageddon. But what happens if Trump doesn’t take a tough stance with China? What is China’s endgame? And, if China is successful in implementing its plans via unfair trade practices, would the potential outcome be any better for the U.S. economy than the negative aspects of a … [Read more...]
Are You a Shepherd or a Gunfighter?
Before you answer, remember that at least 50% of gunfighters end up dead. Are you the type of person who will dutifully grow your investment portfolio over the years by shepherding it in the right direction? Or will you risk it all in one high risk gunfight after another until your number is called? Consider what I wrote here, thirty years ago in December of 1988. It’s a comparison of some high-level shepherding vs. some inexperienced gun slinging. Do you know the two most powerful words in investing? If you’ve been with me through the years, you know the answer. But for all of my … [Read more...]
My Concentration Is on Full Faith & Credit Pledge U.S. Treasuries
As Wall Street tumbles, my concentration is on full faith and credit pledge U.S. treasuries. Reuters' Caroline Valetkevitch reports on the market: The Nasdaq fell 3 percent on Monday as investors dumped Apple, internet and other technology shares. Shares of Apple Inc fell after the Wall Street Journal reported the company had cut production orders in recent weeks for all three iPhone models launched in September. The iPhone maker’s stock dropped 4.0 percent to $185.86 and is now down 19.9 percent from its Oct. 3 record closing high in the wake of a disappointing holiday quarter sales … [Read more...]
Are You About to Retire Broke?
Most Americans are simply not saving enough. GOBankingRates released a survey this week showing that 42% of Americans will retire broke. Hopefully, that doesn’t include you, but even if you have been saving, it’s a good bet you could do more. In July 2014, I explained to readers why they should boost savings. Boost Your Savings The strategy implication of a low-return environment is that savings must play a greater role in your investment plan. The stock and bond markets aren’t going to bail you out. To secure a prosperous financial future, today’s low-return environment demands that … [Read more...]
The Historical Primacy of Dividends
In July 2011 I wrote: On page 480 of 1962’s Security Analysis by Graham, Dodd, and Cottle, I underlined the above header. Since that time, I must have worn out a thousand red pens underlining books, but rarely are they investment books. I have never required another book on investing. I have since read a handful of other books on investing that I have found somewhat useful, but it has been a couple of decades since the last one. And I have no need to add to the list. Successful investing is to me more an art than a science. And intuition plays a big part. Since I graduated from Babson College … [Read more...]
Here’s How You Should Approach Investing in China
The China Household Finance Survey run by Gan Li at Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, recently found that one fifth–that’s 20%–of Chinese homes do not have occupants. Instead these homes are owned as investments in what could be one of the world’s most distorted markets ever. Back in February of 2012, I wrote about China’s “ghost cities,” and the dangers of investing in a command economy. Government subsidies, capital controls, and excessive regulations distort the Chinese economy, making analysis of normal economic signals difficult. With Chinese shares … [Read more...]
The Best Investment Strategy is Simple, Like Analog Music
Four years ago, I told readers the story of David L. Stone, the manager of Beacon Hill Fund. The point of my story then, as it is now, was to encourage investors like you to avoid speculation, and instead to be patient with your money. Use simple strategies you can stick to in good times and in bad. Here’s what I wrote then: As I write to you, I am listening to 1960s “Soul Station” by Hank Mobley, Wynton Kelly, Paul Chambers, and Art Blakey. It is an excellent remastered LP edition of the original on a stereo system that includes a Denon quartz lock turntable from the mid-’80s, a real basic … [Read more...]
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