Real GDP growth so far in the Trump era has averaged 2.77% per quarter, while during the Obama/Biden era it averaged a sleepy 1.9%. Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy in Paris: Scooter? Never!
Does it make sense to take your children to Paris? In their teenage years, communication is a barrier—never mind the language—and keeping everyone happy can be a challenge. On day two of our recent trip for example, after his breakfast of waffles and chocolate croissants, my son Owen asked about our plan for the day. Our plan? Really? I told him his Mom and I were going to lunch at Joel Robuchon’s, and he and his sister would be going to Café Bonaparte with Nanna and Grandpa. “Let’s rent scooters,” he suggested. I looked up and shook my head no. “Dad,” he said, in a … [Read more...]
“The U.S. Economy is Remarkably Resilient When Government Doesn’t Get in the Way”
"The U.S. economy is remarkably resilient when government doesn’t get in the way." These are the words of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board in describing the strong economic growth of the first quarter. The 3.2% real GDP growth surprised the financial community which had been preparing itself for far less. The board asks, "what changed?" The answer, they write, is: Well, the economic policy mix. The Trump Administration lifted the threat of new regulation and harassment of business in 2017, which liberated long-stifled animal spirits. Then came the Trump tax reform with its sharp … [Read more...]
A Record Breaking Stock-Market
While I was speaking with clients this morning, we reviewed the current stock market and what may lie ahead. We talked about the record start to the year, with the S&P 500 on track for the best first four-months in more than three decades. We also talked about the bond side of their portfolio, and the role it plays. To me, this feels like what the late-great Richard Russell would refer to as the third phase in the bull market. The first is the low-hanging fruit, then the moderate advance—both climbing a wall of worry—into the “we can’t afford to miss the boat” third phase, when … [Read more...]
How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?: Paying Their Kids’ Bills
Across America, parents are spending their retirement savings to pay their children's bills. Student loans, insurance, credit cards, and healthcare costs are just some of the bills Americans are paying for their adult children. The extra burden is forcing parents to reduce their savings each month, or even dip into their nest eggs. Megan Cerullo reports at CBS News: Half of American parents have cut back on their retirement savings to help pay their children's bills, a Bankrate.com study shows. Parents are putting their kids' car insurance, cell phone bills, credit card debt and health … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy in Paris: Peking Duck
When you land in Charles de Gaulle airport, taxiing to the gate can feel longer than the flight. It’s big. And if it’s not a long taxi, it means you might be closer to home than the gate. That was us on this trip. And unfortunately, before deplaning we had to wait until the wheelchairs were available. My daughter Izzy recently had ankle surgery from a cross country running injury, and much to her despair (“Dad it’s embarrassing”) we were on the wheelchair list. We were joined by all the other crips including an overweight gentleman crutching forward with a duty-free bag of smokes, … [Read more...]
Paris Update: Notre-Dame, Protests and Your Survival Guy
Having just returned home from another incredible trip to Paris, I want to share some quick highlights from “Your Survival Guy’s” perspective. If you want to experience one of the handful of Palace Hotels in Paris, then you want to go to our favorite home away from home: Le Bristol. If you’ve watched Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris starring Owen Wilson, then you know the arrival scene at Le Bristol. Recently while the hotel showed the movie in the bar, Wilson happened to be in the lobby and popped in to check it out. Only in Paris. If you’re visiting Paris this spring, don’t … [Read more...]
How Many “Retirees” Will Keep Working?: Today’s Elderly Twice as Likely to Work than in 1985
Americans aren't saving enough. That's not all their fault. The Fed has kept interest rates low, depriving savers of decent rates of return on their savings. And a decade of misguided monetary policy hasn't managed to get wages growing very much. So many Americans who would prefer to retire, cannot. They are being forced to work into old age, and today elderly Americans are twice as likely to be working as they were in 1985. Bloomberg's Suzanne Woolley reports: Just as single-income families began to vanish in the last century, many of America’s elderly are now forgoing retirement for the … [Read more...]
Happy Easter: Meet the Man behind the Sweet Parisian Macaron
Standing on the steps of the Madeleine church in the 8th arrondissement, looking down Rue Royale, you can see the Place de la Concorde. Where Rue Royale meets Rue du Faubourg Saint Honore, across the street from Gucci, you’ll see the mint green awnings of maison Ladurée, home to the macaron (pronounced mah-kuh-ron)—meringue like cookies, the color of Easter eggs, sandwiched with an emulsified filling. Groupe Holder is the private baking—not banking—conglomerate owned, founded and controlled by 77-year-old Francis Holder. The company is comprised of Ladurée’s 85 shops in 50 countries, the … [Read more...]
GNMA Update and My April Rage Gauge
If you didn’t lose your patience and held your bonds over the last year, then you know it was a perfect example for why you own them. Case in point, Vanguard GNMA ended the last 52-weeks up 4.46% and its recent 30-day SEC yield was 3.06%. The catalyst for much of the recent gains? The midterms and the Fed—socialists storming the castle, and pathetically lower rates. Whether you own treasuries, agencies and/or corporates, avoid the temptations of predictions or your gut. Because you just might end up being wrong. My April Rage Gauge has backed-off from last month, making it a perfect time to … [Read more...]
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