“Well I remember the mood of euphoria that gripped the stock market back in the holiday season of year-end 1965,” writes Dick Young in his September 1987 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report. “I had just entered the investment business and was a broker at a Boston based member firm of the New Your Stock Exchange. It was an exciting period. The market had climbed by nearly 50% in a three-year period end 1965, and investors were spending their profits literally before they were booked. It was a period of casino mentality—no one could lose. The party ended with a thud, and the … [Read more...]
What You Need to Know about Food Storage and Data-Analytics: Think Amazon’d
As Hurricane Frances was barreling across the Caribbean threatening a direct hit on Florida’s Atlantic coast in 2004, “Residents made for higher ground, but far away, in Bentonville, Ark., executives at Wal-Mart Stores decided that the situation offered a great opportunity for one of their newest data-driven weapons…predictive technology,” reported the New York Times. “A week ahead of the storm’s landfall, Linda M. Dillmans, Wal-Mart’s chief information officer, pressed her staff to come up with forecasts based on what had happened when Hurricane Charley struck several weeks earlier. Backed … [Read more...]
The Market for Quarterbacks Looks Bullish to Me
As you can see below, it’s good to be a quarterback in the NFL. Here are some of the top NFL salaries at quarterback position this year: It will be interesting to see what type of contract the 49ers offer former Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppollo. Keeping him on the Patriots' roster, in the end, was too expensive—to the tune of twenty some odd million dollars a year—to wear a headset. OverTheCap.com's Jason Fitzgerald (as pointed out by Ben Volin of the Boston Globe) believes that the 49ers will likely get Garoppolo for around $21 million next year which is what Brock Osweiler got … [Read more...]
What the Tax Cut Means to Me? The Swamp is Alive and Well
So much for that tax cut we’ve all been hoping for—it looks like the swamp in Washington is alive and well. If this is a tax-cut for the rich, imagine what a tax increase would look like. Don’t get me started. And for all those saying this is a tax cut for the rich, well, the last time I checked you need “money” to get a tax cut—too many Americans have no skin in the game. Americans who I work with—the successful Americans like you—are either still working and saving for retirement, or are already retired and could use a break. Couples in their 50s saving for retirement? Ha! Finally, … [Read more...]
The Truth Behind the S&P 500, Part III
“Welcome aboard!” For some reason, maybe it’s because of all the cruise ships that have visited Newport this Fall, I’m thinking about the S&P 500 as this huge cruise ship. Imagine the guests are common stocks, and to go ashore everyone is assigned to a small water taxi based on their size, or market-cap. The biggest companies, are in one water taxi. It barely floats from all their weight. Imagine that sinking water taxi, with its bow barely above water, steaming to shore with its five biggest guests: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft. That water taxi is followed by the … [Read more...]
Do You Know Dick Young’s Investment North Star?
As more money piles into stocks, there’s never been a better time to get acquainted with Dick Young’s investment North Star, the Treasury bill. Backed by the full-faith credit pledge of the United States government, the T-bill is your risk-free rate of return. To see the chart, click here, and roll your finger, left to right, from the mid-80s to today. Do you see a problem with today’s investment environment? It’s a lot different from when Dick Young began writing to you, as I explain when you click on the chart link above. Originally posted at Yoursurvivalguy.com. … [Read more...]
The Truth Behind the S&P 500, Part 2
The S&P 500 is perhaps the largest “managed” fund in the world. Contrary to widespread belief, it is not an index of only the largest companies in America by market-cap as I explain here. It is an index comprising 500 stocks that are actively chosen by a committee. The committee, led by economist David Blitzer picks 500 stocks from a listing of 1,000 of the largest companies in America. It also decides the sectors and the sector-weightings. In the late 90s, for example, when technology was on fire, the committee finally decided to make technology its own sector. The committee had … [Read more...]
The Truth Behind the S&P 500
Let’s get a few things straight about the S&P 500. First, it’s a market-cap weighted index of large-cap companies based in the U.S. A company’s market cap is calculated by multiplying its shares outstanding by its stock price. The bigger the company’s market-cap the bigger its influence on the direction of the S&P 500. Imagine Apple or Amazon as the 800-pound gorillas and you get an idea of how the index works. How is it constructed? The S&P 500 is not a collection of the largest 500 companies by market cap in the U.S. It is constructed and managed by a committee. Part of the … [Read more...]
My Pick for the Next Federal Reserve Chief: A Gold Standard
If the decision were up to me to choose between current Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell or Stanford University economics professor John Taylor as the next Federal Reserve Chief, I would choose Taylor. At least, of the two, Taylor has a rule named after him. According to the “Taylor Rule,” the Federal Funds rate would be a much higher 3.5% today, not a measly 1%. But the rule isn’t exactly cut and dried. “Its components include the gap between inflation and its target, between economic output and its target, and the ‘neutral’ real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate, which keeps the … [Read more...]
This Market is Smoking-Hot
Over the weekend I received a post-card sized mailer from a local realtor. She was reaching out to residents in my general neighborhood. She has a retired couple interested in buying in the “neighborhood.” Her “clients” want off street parking, an easy to maintain yard, located within walking distance to the center of Newport. Whether this couple exists is neither here nor there. The real estate market, as she points out, is smoking hot and if you’re thinking about selling she wants to hear from you. Pretty clever approach for stressed out buyers or realtors. Which leads me to an article … [Read more...]
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