Take a look at the first day of trading for 2016 and you’ll see the power counterbalancing can have on your portfolio. This is not a prognostication for the short-term price of gold—it’s a simply an observation of why I rarely sell positions that I value. … [Read more...]
Genius behind The Big Short Says Economy is Toxic
Michael Burry, played by Christian Bale in The Big Short, was ahead of the market on predicting the financial crisis beginning in 2007. Today Burry is sounding an alarm once again as he tells New York Magazine of the market, "We're right back at it." Where do we stand now, economically? Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, forcing gridlock in Washington. It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest … [Read more...]
What Lies Ahead for Markets is Not Clear
In the December issue of Intelligence Report, Dick Young writes: The rigged (check with the Fed) financial markets are increasingly imperiled by the domination of high-frequency trading and highly leveraged derivatives. Serious investors look on from the outside and make up but a small, insignificant component of daily trading. In other words, you and I are but interlopers. Those that have generated impressive performance over the last four or so years are the ones prescient enough to have projected that (1) the Fed would, for the first time in history, sit on its hands regarding interest … [Read more...]
Adam Smith and the Prudent Man
From the WSJ: Adam Smith, “The Theory of Moral Sentiments” (1759): The prudent man always studies seriously and earnestly to understand whatever he professes to understand, and not merely to persuade other people that he understands it; and though his talents may not always be very brilliant, they are always perfectly genuine. He neither endeavours to impose upon you by the cunning devices of an artful impostor, nor by the arrogant airs of an assuming pedant, nor by the confident assertions of a superficial and impudent pretender. He is not ostentatious even of the abilities which he … [Read more...]
Fed Ends Historic Era by Raising Rates
The Fed ended seven-years of sitting on its hands by finally raising interest rates. Really? One will have to look pretty hard to actually see it. Here’s a thought, how about Janet Yellen testifies in front of a room of retirees at a Town Hall style meeting instead of in front of a room of bureaucrats in D.C. Does she not have a clue what her rock bottom interest rates are doing to retirees? … [Read more...]
The Big Short Movie
You may have heard Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short, about the real estate crash in 2008, is now a movie. Apparently you can skip it. “Longtime Will Ferrell collaborator, former ‘SNL’ head writer and director Adam McKay, whose work usually isn’t even on the smart end of the comedy spectrum, co-wrote and directed ‘The Big Short,’ an inept and frequently idiotic take on Michael Lewis’ deeply engaging book, and it will largely be remembered for three things: bad haircuts, overacting and Margot Robbie in a bubble bath. . . .” writes Kyle Smith in the New York Post. Here’s what I wrote about … [Read more...]
Vanguard GNMA: Slow and Steady
Slow and steady wins the race. … [Read more...]
Does Your State have Creeping Tax Brackets?
If your state isn't indexing its tax brackets to inflation, you could find yourself paying a higher rate even though you're not any higher up the income ladder. Research from the Tax Foundation explains your state's system. … [Read more...]
Your Best Bond vs Stock Portfolio Balance
In the November issue of Intelligence Report, Dick Young advised investors that his primary motivation is keeping them out of trouble. My focus, first and foremost, is on keeping you out of trouble. I do not write to needy investors—those who require the financial markets to make something happen to save their bacon—nor to novice investors or rank speculators. If you have been with me over the decades, you know that my primary concern is your comfort and security in your retirement years, whether today or in the future. In other words, my aim is to help you protect and preserve the capital … [Read more...]
The Rising Costs of Thanksgiving
Every year the Farm Bureau puts out a report on the price of Thanksgiving dinner. This year, no surprise, the price of Thanksgiving has increased again. From the Farm Bureau: WASHINGTON, D.C., November 19, 2015 — The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 30th annual informal price survey of classic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table indicates the average cost of this year’s feast for 10 is $50.11, a 70-cent increase from last year’s average of $49.41. The big ticket item – a 16-pound turkey – came in at a total of $23.04 this year. That’s roughly $1.44 per pound, an … [Read more...]
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