Crypto-Mania has gone mainstream, reports Bloomberg. Kodak, a household name to those over the age of 35, saw its shares soar over 270% over the last two trading days. What is the catalyst for the Kodak share price surge? The company announced that it will use blockchain technology and launch a "photo-centric cryptocurrency" called Kodakcoin. I wish I were kidding. What are crypto-currency investors thinking? If you are wondering why the cryptocurrency bubble hasn't yet popped, a quote from Warren Buffett may shed some light. “In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say almost … [Read more...]
Investors Throw Caution to the Wind
As the bull market rally marches on for what seems like forever, investors who typically are concerned with risk are throwing caution to the wind. Gunjan Banerji reports in The Wall Street Journal that investors who normally hedge their positions have decided buying downside protection is a waste of money. She writes: Investors with significant positions in stocks often look to offset that risk by buying put options on stocks or major stock indexes, like the S&P 500. These contracts are a form of insurance that pay out when stocks fall. But with the Dow Jones Industrial Average … [Read more...]
Is the Amazon Echo Speaker a Fad?
I don’t have an Amazon Echo or a Google home speaker (too much paranoia about unauthorized listening) so I am pontificating from a uniquely unqualified position. However, my anecdotal evidence gathering from talking with early adopters of Echo and Google home, tells me Echo has many of the signs of a fad. There are undoubtedly some cool features, but once the newness wears off, the folk I’ve talked to who own the device find much less use for it. This morning, the FT is reporting that the Consumer Technology Association is calling for smart speaker sales will peak in 2019 at about 56 … [Read more...]
Are Smart Phones Killing Your Productivity?
One would think having a pocket-sized computer as one’s disposable would improve productivity, but since the advent and popularization of the smartphone, productivity growth has sagged. Coincidence? Maybe, but some surveys show that we check our phones as many as 150 times per day. Couple that with the fact that it can take 20-25 minutes to get back on track after an interruption and the claim that smartphones contribute to slower productivity doesn’t sound so crazy. The FT reports on this in an article today. To wit: The costs of this distraction are starting to become apparent. I … [Read more...]
Are You Still Investing in Long Bonds?
Complacency is a dangerous foe to a successful investment program. After one of the least volatile years on record in the stock market, many equity investors are complacent today. Though it is discussed much less, so are bond investors. Long bonds are the dog that never seems to bite, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous. As the WSJ describes here, some investors don’t seem to mind the danger of bonds. The latest pillar supporting the U.S. Treasury market: everyday investors. Ordinary investors are a growing force keeping longer-term bond yields low, even as the Federal Reserve … [Read more...]
The Single Biggest Risk Facing Global Markets in 2018
What is the single biggest risk facing global markets in 2018? According to Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist the biggest risk is the end of European quantitative easing. The FT has a feature on the potentially profound impact that the end of central bank support will have on bond markets. The coming year promises to be an inflection point for central banks. The Fed has started reducing the pile of the bonds it acquired after the financial crisis — a process that will accelerate. The ECB started to trim its QE programme in 2017 and is expected to end it altogether in 2018. Even … [Read more...]
Investment Views on 2018
John Authers gives his summary of markets in 2017 and his outlook for 2018 in the FT this morning. John argues that long-term interest rates are the key risk to watch in 2018. Sans a rise in long rates, known risks look benign. As for unknown risks, well… there is a reason we have long advised a balanced approach, diversified across asset classes and regions. Below are some of the highlights from John Authers' FT column. You can read the full article here (subscription required): Record Low Volatility in 2017 This can’t carry on, can it? This is the last Long View of 2017, the most … [Read more...]
Is 2017’s Most Popular Strategy in Peril?
After nine years of a bull market that has been aided by the most aggressive and sustained period of monetary stimulus in history (you didn’t forget about that did you?) index-based investing has become the go-to strategy for many investors. Year-to-date, EPFR estimates that globally, investors have dumped $436.5 billion into index funds. Actively managed funds have experienced net outflows of over $150 billion in the U.S. alone. Jack Bogle would likely be proud, but does index-based investing still make sense when a majority of the money being invested in funds is flowing to vehicles that … [Read more...]
Are You Ready for the ‘Mini-Grid’?
A small German startup has connected 20,000 households that independently produce energy. The company is Sonnen. It’s virtual network allows users to buy and sell excess energy to each other at a reduced cost. The FT has more. In Germany, about 20,000 households are already part of an initiative, launched by energy storage company Sonnen, which connects homes that independently produce energy. Sonnen’s virtual network allows them to buy and sell excess energy to each other at a reduced cost. Sonnen is Europe’s largest maker of rechargeable energy storage packs. When the company launched in … [Read more...]
After a Year of Retail Misery, Shoppers Finish 2017 Strong
Throughout 2017 it seemed that every week a brick and mortar retailer was going out of business. Big names like RadioShack, The Limited, Payless ShoeSource, and Toys R' Us all went under in 2017, and there are plenty of other retailers on the edge. But according to MasterCard, retailers, including e-commerce, did well in the last months of 2017. MasterCard tracked an increase of 4.9% in sales at retailers (excludes autos) from November 1 to December 24. That's larger than the 3.7% recorded last year. Suzanne Kapner reports at The Wall Street Journal: “It started with a bang in the week … [Read more...]
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