Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

Housing Starts Look Weak

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Housing starts released today came in far below consensus estimates.  Government efforts to stimulate the housing market have once again failed. The federal tax credit for home buyers simply pulled demand forward. We are now seeing the giveback. … [Read more...]

Avoid This Losing Strategy

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Using a buy and hold strategy to invest in agricultural commodities futures or funds that buy agricultural commodities futures is a loser's game. Agricultural commodities futures routinely trade in a state of contango. Contago occurs when distant month futures contracts trade at a premium to near month contracts. When a futures contract reaches expiration investors must sell it and buy a contract expiring at a later date. This is called rolling futures. But when a futures market is in a state of contango the near month contract being sold will trade at a lower price than the contract being … [Read more...]

The European Crisis Crusade

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Treasury Secretary Geithner is on a crusade to prevent the debt crisis in Europe from spinning out of control. The Wall Street Journal reports that Mr. Geithner is chiding European leaders on their crisis response. He apparently believes he has a better strategy for Europe. Geithner wants Europe to pile on more debt to solve a debt crisis and conduct bank stress tests. Can you believe the nerve of this guy? This is the same Treasury secretary who, 16 months ago, exacerbated the financial panic with a disastrous communication strategy and half-baked policy prescriptions. Mr. Geithner came … [Read more...]

The Bear Market in Pork

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The PIIGS are deep in bear market territory, falling more than 37% since October of 2009. Our chart shows a break through key support, indicating that a drop to the March 2009 low now seems possible. … [Read more...]

90% of Bankruptcy Lawyers Believe A U.S. City Will Fail

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Survey Shows Risk of U.S. Municipal Defaults - Nicole Bullock, Financial Times “Some 90 per cent of the 91 bankruptcy lawyers, bankers, fund managers and other turnaround specialists polled earlier this month predicted a US city would default in 2010 or 2011, versus 63 per cent who expected the default of a country in the same time period.” How to Beat the Bond Market – Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal “In your day-to-day life you wouldn't keep lending more money to the people who had already borrowed the most. But that is probably what the manager of your bond fund is doing with your … [Read more...]

A Valuable Lesson

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If you have been following the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) civil suit against Goldman Sachs, you know the SEC is suing the firm for underwriting and selling a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) without disclosing to the buyers that a hedge fund taking a short position in the deal helped select the securities referenced in the CDO. The SEC is focused on whether or not Goldman made misrepresentations to the buyers. Whether or not the allegations against Goldman are true, there is a valuable lesson here for investors. The counterparties in the Goldman synthetic CDO deal … [Read more...]

A New All-Time High

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A $1 trillion dollar bailout of overly indebted euro-area governments has helped push gold to a new all-time high. The bailout in Europe greatly diminishes the credibility of the European Central Bank and the euro. Investors are rightfully fed up with paper money. The only credible alternative to paper money is of course gold. How much gold do you own? … [Read more...]