Did you Know? "The S&P 500 Index finished the quarter up nearly 1% after falling as much as 10.5% at one point in February. That makes it the first quarter since the Great Depression where the benchmark fell more than 10% and then rebounded to end higher, according to LPL Financial. " (Source: Moneybeat) "Yellen’s stance that the Fed must “proceed cautiously” assured investors that the Fed will risk letting the economy run hot before raising rates, jolting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest quarterly turnaround in eight decades." (Source: Bloomberg) China's Plunge … [Read more...]
A Capital Gains Focus is a Losing Strategy
If you tune into to the financial news networks regularly, you might get the mistaken impression that capital gains are the most important form of return for stocks. The focus of these programs tends to be oriented toward traders and speculators. Which stock is going to rise the most over the next 1, 3 or 6 month period is the topic of conversation. You hear little about dividends. Focusing solely on capital gains is a big mistake. Dividends and the reinvestment of dividends accounts for a majority of the return on stocks. Stock prices can remain depressed for agonizingly long periods of … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: Saudi Arabia’s $2 Trillion Fund
Saudi Arabia's $2 Trillion Fund (Bloomberg) Gold Posts Biggest Quarterly Gain in Decades (WSJ) $15 Minimum Wage Push Stirs Up (WSJ) Consumer Stocks Worth a Look (Kiplinger) Would the Blockchain have Saved Lehman? (Fortune) Was March Rally the Calm before the Storm? (Marketwatch) 19 April Fool's Products That We Sorta Wish We're Real (Money) … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: Underestimating Retirement Spending
Underestimating Spending in Retirement (WSJ) The Academic Journal Racket (WSJ) Investors Flee the 2 and 20 Funds (WSJ) Chipotle Jumps into Gourmet Burger Fray (Fortune) London Real Estate on Fire (WSJ) The Death Cross Indicator (Marketwatch) Shale is the Odd Man Out in Oil Reckoning (WSJ) Bond Investors Suck at Math says the Bond King (MarketWatch) Majority of Americans Oppose Nuclear Energy (Gallup) … [Read more...]
Yellen’s Hidden Agenda and What it means for Your Portfolio
Wow! That was a shocker of a speech by the head of the world’s most important central bank. And it has some serious investment implications for you. Yesterday at the Economic Club of New York, Janet Yellen put her true colors on full display for the world to see. Chair Yellen announced that she was an unabashed dove on monetary policy. Easy money is her default stance, and activist policy is her forte. Inflation and employment data—once the justification for years of zero rates and quantitative easing—no longer serve the Fed’s purpose. It’s on to new and different “data” to explain to … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: The Coming Condo Bust
The Coming Condo Bust (WSJ) Shorts Betting Energy Pain Isn't Over (Bloomberg) Why Trade Critics Are Gaining Traction (WSJ) Will Value Investing Stage a Comeback (Financial Times) The Best States for Survivalists (richardcyoung.com) Yellen's List of Excuses for Easy Money Grows Longer (Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: Chinese Pile Into Gold
The Chinese Pile Into Gold (WSJ) Central Banks Can't Save Us (Bloomberg) Markets Say Don't Trust this Rally (WSJ) Debt Buybacks in Vogue (Financial Times) Home Prices up 5.7% (CNBC) The Problem with Discretionary Monetary Policy (Zero Hedge) … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: The Coming Oil Price Shock?
Why We Could see an Oil Price Shock in 2016 (USA Today) What Wall Street Gets Wrong about Amazon (WSJ) Unconventional Asset Allocation Advice in Retirement (Fortune) Putnam Absolute Return Funds Fail (WSJ) The Next Perfect Banking Storm (Bloomberg) Solar-Panel Installers Face Clouded Future (WSJ) Glamour Can Distract Investors (ETF.com) For Oil Companies, It’s All About the ZIP Code (WSJ) An Unemployment Plan: California Aims for $15 Pay Floor (WSJ) … [Read more...]
As Goes Oil, so Goes the Stock Market
As goes oil, so goes the stock market. At least that has been a dominant theme so far in 2016. The chart below shows the rolling 16-week correlation between weekly changes in the S&P 500 and WTI crude futures. The correlation between oil and stocks soared in 2016. On days when oil was up big, chances are stocks were up as well. And when oil tanked, you can bet that stocks were down that day. Why this relationship has grown so tight this year is not obvious. Lower oil prices are still a net benefit to the consumer and the consumer economy. But this chart points us toward the profound … [Read more...]
Worthy Reads: Why This Stock Market Rally Looks Exhausted
Why this Stock Market Rally looks Exhausted (Marketwatch) Boom-Era Missteps Prove Haunting for Brazil (WSJ) Investors Replace Futures with ETFs (Financial Times) Inflation Stirs as Federal Reserve stands still (Financial Times) Central Bank Endgame Revealed (Bloomberg) Helicopter Ben (Jim Grant) … [Read more...]
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