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The Quiet Bull Market in Oil

December 7, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

While the world’s attention has been focused on Europe, the price of oil has risen more than 33% from its October low. West Texas Intermediate Crude is now trading above $100 per barrel. Much of the rally in West Texas crude is due to technical factors as Brent crude, which is more of a global benchmark is only up 14% from its October low. But oil’s resilience in the face of a euro-area economy that is either in recession or about to enter recession is impressive nonetheless. Imagine where oil could be trading in a more robust global economic environment. Scary wouldn’t you agree? … [Read more...]

Eurocrats Cry Wolf

November 28, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

It seems as though the half-life of euro-zone bailouts is getting shorter. It was only a month ago that policy makers announced a bailout plan that was supposed to put an end to the region’s debt crisis once and for all. Admittedly, the details of the plan were vague and it lacked credibility, but that didn’t stop equity markets from rallying in October as rumors and speculation about the plan were leaked to the press. If euro-zone leaders were attempting to boost global equity markets by announcing a plan to make a plan weeks in the future, they succeeded. October was the best month for the … [Read more...]

Are Stocks the Best Long-Term Investment?

November 23, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The two-decade bull market in stocks that ended in 2000 convinced a generation of investors that stocks are the best long-term investment. Dow 36,000 and Stocks for the Long Run became cocktail-party fodder. There is no questioning that stocks put up some impressive numbers in the 1980s and 1990s. From year-end 1981 to year-end 1999, the index rose at an 18.5% compounded annual rate. At an 18.5% rate of growth, you double your money every four years. Of course, the last decade hasn’t been as kind to investors, but despite a decade with almost no return, the S&P 500 has still earned a … [Read more...]

Not Your Father’s Stock Market

November 17, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

This is not your father’s stock market. Over the last 10 years, the structure of the U.S. equity market has changed drastically. Gone are the days when the NYSE and its specialists dominated stock market trading. Today, as many as 50 different venues in the U.S. trade equities. Now, almost all stock trades are done electronically. The NYSE specialists who were once obligated to make an orderly market by providing bid and offer quotes during periods of market stress have been effectively replaced by high-frequency trading firms (HFTs). HFTs are opportunistic traders that operate with little … [Read more...]

A Striking Divergence

November 16, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

A striking divergence has emerged in global financial markets in recent weeks. During July and August as the euro-area sovereign debt crisis intensified and spreads on Spanish, Italian, and even French bonds rose, U.S. stocks plunged (point A on chart). After the European Central Bank restarted their bond buying program in early August to temporarily take the heat off of Italy and Spain, bond spreads fell. Spreads didn’t rise back to their August highs until late September. The move back up in Spanish and Italian spreads in September contributed to another down-leg in U.S. stocks. That … [Read more...]

A Simple Recipe for Beating the Market 3 to 1

November 10, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Over more than eight decades of stock market history, a dividend focused approach has been a winning investment strategy. Consider that if you invested $100 in the stock market in 1927—as measured here by a portfolio of large-capitalization stocks— today your portfolio would be worth $190,000. A tidy sum to be sure, but if you instead invested that same $100 in the highest yielding stocks (top 20%) and rebalanced annually, your portfolio would now be worth $586,000. That’s three times as much.  To some, a dividend-focused approach just sounds too boring. The highest yielding stocks are … [Read more...]

Netflix: The Risk of High Expectations

October 31, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Most of you are no doubt familiar with Netflix—the leading DVD and video-streaming rental business in America. Up until recently, Netflix was a high flyer—a momentum stock. From year-end 2009 to June 2011, the shares rose over 375%—the highest return in the S&P 500. During the company’s 18-month price vault, revenue growth accelerated from 23% to 52%, and EPS growth averaged more than 57%. Those are impressive numbers for a company operating in the throes of a lackluster economy. Investors were so impressed with Netflix’s business prospects that after paying 30X earnings in December of … [Read more...]

Home Prices Tumble and Confidence Plunges

October 27, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The commerce department released September new home sales yesterday. The number of new homes sold in September came in at an annual rate of 313,000—13,000 more than economists’  average estimate. But new home prices tumbled to a post-bubble low. The average price of a new home in the U.S. fell to $243,900 in September—the lowest price in eight years. Falling house prices along with stubbornly high unemployment, stock market volatility, and incompetence in Washington are taking a toll on consumers. In October, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (the expectations component) … [Read more...]

Did the Fed Just Signal QE3?

October 24, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Are you ready for another round of reckless money printing from the most activist Federal Reserve in U.S. history? Last week, the doves (easy money advocates) on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) started laying the groundwork for a third round of quantitative easing. Is that a tacit admission that Operation Twist, the most recent real-time experiment in monetary policy, has failed? Probably, but a majority on the Fed believe money printing stimulates the real economy, despite all of the commonsense evidence to the contrary.  How do members of the Fed reach such a conclusion? … [Read more...]

A Truly Terrifying Chart

October 20, 2011 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The chart below is the spread between French and German government bonds. Equity markets have rallied on hopes that an American-styleshock and awe bailout package from France and Germany can solve the euro-area’s debt crisis, but the bond market has other ideas. The French-German spread has blown-out to the highest level since the euro’s founding. Contagion is spreading to the core of the euro-area. Investors are beginning to doubt France’s ability to fund the multi-trillion dollar bailouts needed to solve the crisis. At a 114 basis point spread over German bonds, the market is rating France … [Read more...]

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