Euro breaks through key support level. Next support level will be reached somewhere between $1.25 and $1.30. A weaker euro lessens the probability of an export-led recovery in the U.S. … [Read more...]
Troubling news on Muni Bonds and China
The $2 Trillion Hole – Barron’s “Some 80% of these public employees are beneficiaries of defined-benefit plans under which monthly pension payments are guaranteed, no matter how stocks and other volatile assets backing the retirement plans perform. In contrast, most of the taxpayers footing the bill for these public-employee benefits (participants' contributions to these plans are typically modest) have been pushed by their employers into far less munificent defined-contribution plans and suffered the additional indignity of seeing their 401(k) accounts shrivel in the recent bear market in … [Read more...]
Mutual Fund Cash
Cash levels as a percentage of total assets in stock mutual funds is bordering on an all-time low. When was that low hit? It was July 2007 – three months prior to the last bull market high. The dry powder in stock mutual funds that helped fuel a 72% rise in the S&P 500 from the March 2009 lows is spent. Individual investors still have dry powder, but they’re flocking to bonds and hoarding cash. Two vicious bear markets in 10 years’ time will do that. Stocks could move higher if individuals move aggressively back into the market, but if you are forming a long-term investment plan on the … [Read more...]
Commodities Investment
Since 2005, investment in commodities futures funds has increased over 200% to an estimated $250 billion. Some of the biggest inflows to commodities futures funds have been from institutional investors—pensions, endowments, and foundations. Not by mistake, the institutional crowd moved into commodities futures just as a powerful bull market was getting under way. Institutional investors are just as susceptible to performance chasing as the average investor, but they would never admit it. The institutional crowd will instead tell you that they are investing in commodities futures funds for … [Read more...]
Truly Astonishing Debt Accumulation
Federal spending is at the highest level since WII. In five years, the national debt has soared to $11.9 trillion from $7.3 trillion, an increase that equals all the debt accumulated between President George Washington and President Clinton. … [Read more...]
The Recovery’s Winners
The Young Research Affluence Index has outperformed the Young Research Discount Goods Index by 100% since the economic recovery began. Our chart indicates that the economic recovery has still not reached low and middle income consumers. Quite shocking considering the populist majorities in both branches of government. … [Read more...]
A Must Own Asset Class
If the last decade has taught investors anything, it is that taking greater risk does not always result in greater return. An investor who put his entire portfolio in a basket of developed-world equity markets at year-end 1999 would have earned all of 2.34% over 10 years. And to earn that 2%, this investor would have endured two of the worst bear markets in history, with peak-to-trough declines of 45% and 53%. What's more, an investment in conservative full-faith-and-credit-pledge short-term U.S. Treasuries was up 55% over the last 10 years. The 2000s were without a doubt a dismal decade … [Read more...]
Bad News for Small Business
In 2009, the number of problem banks increased nearly 200%. Problem banks now hold $400 billion in bank assets. Most of these problem institutions are regional and community lenders. The same banks that dominate in small business and commercial real estate lending. A continued rise in problem banks is likely to hinder a recovery in these sectors of the economy. … [Read more...]
Canadian Banks and a Chinese Bubble
This is the first installment of Clippings, a new feature from Youngresearch.com. In Clippings we'll periodically post articles on markets, economics, finance, investments, and anything else we find of interest. What U.S. Banks Can Learn from Canada By Derek DeCloet – BusinessWeek “Canadian banks did not fail because they mostly avoided the big mistakes with mortgages. They didn't lend to people who couldn't prove a sufficient income. They did give no-money-down mortgages, but not many—and the practice was effectively banned. They made scant use of teaser rates. They do these things … [Read more...]
The U-Shaped Recovery?
Historically, housing recoveries follow a V-shaped trajectory. Even with significant government support, the current housing recovery, appears to be taking more of a U-shaped path. A healthy skepticism on the pace of a housing recovery remains warranted. … [Read more...]