Here is why the U.S. will lead the Euro Area in an economic recovery. Higher productivity growth in the U.S. will allow American firms to ramp up employment sooner than their European counterparts. … [Read more...]
Continuing Claims
A Guide to 2010 Investment Returns
In 2010, the monetary policies of the world's three largest central banks are likely to play a big role in the performance of global equity markets. The vast majority of the world's wealth—close to 80%, by some estimates—is concentrated in the U.S., Japan, and the euro area. My chart shows that the GDP-weighted risk-free rate in these three economies is only 0.14%. A 0.14% T-bill rate would not be a concern if the global economy were still in free fall, but it isn't. The global economy bottomed in the second quarter of 2009. The IMF projects that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2010. … [Read more...]
Pull Your Head Out of the Sand
In a recent speech to the American Economic Association, Fed Chairman Bernanke offered his explanation of the causes of the housing bubble. Mr. Bernanke contends that easy money in the early years of this decade did not cause or even significantly contribute to the housing bubble. He also contends that the housing bubble was caused by a global savings glut and the growth in non-traditional mortgage products-option ARMs, Alt-A mortgages, and negative amortization loans. Mr. Bernanke ran through simulations and mortgage statistics, and he even broke out fancy equations. His explanation was very … [Read more...]
The Economic Dream Team
An unemployment rate of 10% has put the administration and its allies in Congress on the defensive. The president's $787-billion stimulus was supposed to stem job losses and keep unemployment from reaching double digits. Predictably, there has been little or no benefit from the poorly designed stimulus. So back to the drawing board we go. The administration is proposing a second stimulus plan. Does this plan have any chance at success? It's doubtful. The problem here is that President Obama and his inner circle of economic advisors are short on relevant private-sector experience. The … [Read more...]
A Canary in the Coal Mine?
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) accurately forecasted a 60%-plus rally in the stock market in early 2009. The CESI is an indicator designed to measure whether economic data is coming in better or worse than the average analyst’s expectations. A rising index indicates that economic data is coming in better than expected, whereas a falling index indicates that economic data is coming in worse than expected. The theory is that the consensus expectations for economic data are priced into the market. So then, when new economic data turns out to be better than the market’s expectations, … [Read more...]
Blowing Asset Bubbles
At the Fed's last meeting, Bernanke and company decided to keep the monetary throttle pegged. Apparently, the massive real-estate bubble inflated by an ultra-loose monetary policy that almost caused a collapse of the global financial system hasn't changed the Fed's view on asset price inflation. The Fed continues to cite subdued inflation and low rates of resource utilization as reasons to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Bernanke and company are, of course, completely ignoring asset prices. Gold is at a new all-time high, oil is up 155% from its low, the S&P 500 is up 57% from … [Read more...]
The Bull Market in Corporate Bonds
According to Bloomberg, YTD net inflows into mutual funds that focus on corporates, bank loans, and munis are $295 billion, compared to net outflows of $31 billion in equity funds. The flood of money moving into the corporate bond market has driven down yields and compressed credit spreads in some sectors to levels last seen in 2007. For investors who initiated positions in corporates early this year, the rally has been breathtaking. Short-term investment-grade bonds are up double digits in an environment where short-term Treasuries yield less than 1%. For savers, retired investors, and those … [Read more...]
Peculiar Divergences
What worries me most about the stock market rally are the peculiar divergences we are seeing. What do I mean? Let's look at some charts. My first chart shows that gold is breaking out to the upside on heavy volume. SPDR Gold Trust Gold is an inflation hedge, a currency hedge, and a safe-haven asset. When gold rises, other financial assets are often falling. But my stock market chart shows that the S&P 500 has rallied virtually uninterrupted since bottoming in March. S&P 500 Oddly, though, volume is falling while prices are rising. A divergence in price and volume … [Read more...]
Get It While It’s Cheap
Natural gas is super cheap today, but it could get cheaper before the cycle is over. There is an abundance of it. U.S. storage capacity is almost full. If excess production does not drop before capacity fills up, the price of natural gas is likely to weaken. Natural gas is out of favor. The momentum crowd is bailing out, driving prices below the cost of production. Smart successful investors move against the crowd. You want to be a buyer when everybody else is selling. Long term, today's depressed natural gas price is unsustainable. It has to rise. Gas is cheap, clean, and available in … [Read more...]