As I wrote to you yesterday, “How much Artificial Intelligence do you want in your portfolio? Your Survival Guy doesn’t want it anywhere near mine. But AI is already in the sports pages with a recent Ohio high school football recap written with the heart of a Tin Man. How much longer until we have ivory tower dwellers and woke politicians writing the rules for investments? What could possibly go wrong?” Here’s some more I’ve come up with. AI, I’m on a fixed income. Can you help? AI, I want a conservative mix of stocks. AI, I want a portfolio that is oriented to Main Street … [Read more...]
Just a Few Problems I See with AI Portfolios: Part I
How much Artificial Intelligence do you want in your portfolio? Your Survival Guy doesn’t want it anywhere near mine. But AI is already in the sports pages with a recent Ohio high school football recap written with the heart of a Tin Man. How much longer until we have ivory tower dwellers and woke politicians writing the rules for investments? What could possibly go wrong? Here’s some I’ve come up with. “Dear AI: Your Survival Guy wants a diversified portfolio.” How would AI interpret this? Your Survival Guy wants “an eclectic mix of dividend paying stocks.” How would AI interpret … [Read more...]
Your Survival Guy Goes Back to College for Year 2
It was a typical Saturday morning, except Your Survival Guy was heading back to college to drop off my son for year two. What could be so hard about that, I thought. Four hours of assembling a couch and coffee table later, I’m here to say it wasn’t as easy as I thought it would be. Now, for any of you who have a daughter and a son, you know the difference. There’s a difference between being packed and ready and being packed and ready. One of them, when you ask, “Are you packed?” is really packed, while the other is thinking he’s got this and will throw it all together, no problem. Your … [Read more...]
Don’t Be Average, Be Better: Avoid This Mistake
You bet it’s an exciting time to be a fixed-income investor. But I’ve been telling you that for years. You don’t have to compound big numbers to be a successful fixed-income investor. You need to harness time and let the magic of compound interest do the heavy lifting. What never fails to amaze Your Survival Guy is how the average investor always wants more, more, more. When rates are at levels you can sink your teeth into with some peace of mind and comfort—look at treasuries—they reach for yields that are double that with terrible credit ratings. Good luck. Because it’s in times like … [Read more...]
Preparation and Experience Can Help, But at What Cost?
With everything that’s going on in the world today, Your Survival Guy is concerned about your safety. Stuff happens, and before you know it, you’re stuck in the fog. You know from here and here about my own experiences in fog. It happens fast. You deal with it. Because living life on the dock is no way to live. Preparation and experience can help. But at what cost? You know this market is foggy. You know our government is in debt up to its eyeballs. Remember the government bailout of GM, leaving common shareholders, the investing class, in ruins? The more government creep we have in the … [Read more...]
My Favorite Investment Tool, Real Estate, Water, Fog, and More
Happy Friday. Yes, you can sink your teeth into the short-term end of the yield curve, and there’s plenty of other opportunities along the way. Think of me as your guide. It can get foggy out there. Look at my favorite investment tool and the yields you can get today versus only three years ago. I can tell you investing is a lot like boating in the fog. If you have a plan and some experience navigating in it, then it doesn't need to keep you on the dock. If I stayed home every time there was some threat of fog, I’d miss a lot of good days on the water. The key is to become … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge August: This Market is Foggy
Your Survival Guy’s latest RAGE Gauge is in, and before I get into this month’s reading, I want to revisit my piece from yesterday on getting stuck in the fog last weekend. I could have stayed on the dock. But I’m confident in my ability to navigate in the fog because I’ve done it many times, and I know how I like to navigate—carefully from mark to mark. I have electronics. The radar and chartplotter. But I also know not to depend solely on them to safely find my destination. The technology is outstanding. But I’ve been in enough situations to know nothing beats my own two eyes and taking … [Read more...]
Note to Self: Don’t Wind Up on the Rocks
Your Survival Guy got caught up in some fog Saturday afternoon halfway through our trip from Newport to Mattapoisett. All was clear while preparing to leave the dock, but I heard the fog horn faintly in the distance. We were cruising right along, and then, on the horizon, we could see the dark fog cloud rolling in. I turned on the radar which overlays the chart plotter map, and had a few minutes to get my bearings just using the electronics. One of my biggest fears in fog is other boaters. Sometimes all the technology in the world isn’t enough. I relate it to SUVs with four-wheel drive … [Read more...]
Don’t Get Caught Up on Prices, Do This
When market prices float through space, it’s worthwhile remembering this: prices are a qualitative measure, not quantitative. Prices are opinions. Everyone’s got one. They can change with the wind. But, stock dividends, for example, they’re quantitative. They’re tangible. You can see them enter your account if you pay attention. Trading stocks—a zero-sum game—is not investing. That’s speculation. With most of the world focusing on prices, why wouldn’t you focus on dividends? We learn at a young age how to make money. How to save. But at some point, after they’ve accumulated a pile of … [Read more...]
Investing for Your Survival, Not Mr. Market’s
You are my hero. Not Mr. Market. You invested or saved your first dollar for no other reason than survival—self-protection. I know this because I’m Your Survival Guy. You tell me your stories, and I listen. Rare is the occasion where you went from rags to riches by trading stocks. No, you worked for it. Your story is one where your back was against the wall, and you needed to survive. You wanted a better life. You needed to raise your family. The part where you thrived came later, often much later. You appreciate what you have now because you know how hard it was to get. “I don’t want to do … [Read more...]
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