After posting its first two profitable quarters, Twitter's share price has been soaring, but Ben Eisen reports for the Wall Street Journal that short sellers have the social media network in their sights. He writes: Now, as optimism about the company prompts a slew of analysts to lift their price targets, some short-sellers are betting on a reversal. They have amassed positions worth more than $2 billion this month through Thursday, according to s3 Partners, a financial analytics firm. “Shorts have been selling into this rally, backing up their original bets and looking to double up on … [Read more...]
America’s Lowest Unemployment Rate
It's been called the next Houston, or the next Atlanta, but people living there are having doubts about its rapid development. Nashville is the American metropolitan statistical area with the lowest unemployment rate, at 2.7%. Cameron McWhirter explains the city's appeal at The Wall Street Journal: As Southern cities draw more people from other regions, politicians, business leaders, economists and residents are increasingly focused on how to manage the growth to keep housing and other costs of living in line with wages. For decades, part of the South’s appeal has been low housing costs, … [Read more...]
Put the Odds on Your Side
Near the end of 1993, Debbie and I were hunkered down at The Dorset Inn in Vermont. Its wide pine board floors, restored tap room, gourmet dining room and antique-outfitted guest rooms make the small inn a special place to get away from the constant din of markets and politics. Events that fall were oddly connected to this very moment in American history. In November of that year President Bill Clinton told the world that North Korea must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. And in December, Clinton signed NAFTA into law. Projections made in 1993 on how the Korean situation and … [Read more...]
Peak Greater Fool
The NYSE FANG+ Index has been on a tear that rivals the dotcom era mania. The chart below shows the relative performance of the NASDAQ composite from year-end 1997 (about 26 months prior to peak) through its collapse and the relative performance of the NYSE FANG+ index from April of 2016 (nearly 26 months ago). Both rose parabolically over these time periods and strongly outperformed the broader S&P 500. The good news, if you are growing tired of hearing about how much money your nephew is making in Netflix shares, is peak greater fool (or peak stupid if you prefer plain language) may … [Read more...]
Viva Las Vegas!
Whether Las Vegas real estate is in a bubble or not--this article leans towards not—Californians are finding greener pastures away from Gov. Brown’s reckless policies. As I’ve noted in the past, the direction of individual states is a geographical portrait of right vs. left (wrong) ideologies. Eli Segall writes from the Las Vegas Review-Journal: Las Vegas home prices are rising at one of the fastest clips in the country, with builders fetching record dollar amounts and resale values approaching prior highs. The growth is so fast that, according to a new report, prices here are the most … [Read more...]
Amazon Keeps Expanding
Amazon, the massive online retailer, just keeps on increasing its logistical infrastructure. Now the e-commerce giant is building a 1 million square foot facility in Burlington, NJ. Jan Hefler of The Philadelphia Inquirer writes: Amazon spokeswoman Rachael Lighty said the 1 million square-foot facility would create 600 full-time jobs for area residents, adding to the more than 16,000 the company employs across the state. Amazon’s selection of the Burlington site continues the company’s plans for distribution warehouses in South Jersey. There are centers in Florence in Burlington County and … [Read more...]
Survive and Thrive June: Knife Attack: Your Survival Guy in Paris
“Did you hear the gun shots?” a friend asked. “No,” I said. When the knife attack occurred, we, like many other families on a Saturday night in Paris, were out to dinner. In fact, we didn’t learn about the attack until much later. In retrospect, I’m surprised no one at our restaurant told us about it or warned us. Part of me believes they knew the situation was under control and didn’t want to ruin our night or scare us. Or they just didn’t know about it. We learned about the attack back in our hotel room, flipping through the channels on the TV. Seeing the live report brought mixed … [Read more...]
Interest Rates Need to be Higher Pronto
Inflation? Yes it’s a thing. Anyone living in the real world recognizes it at the grocery store, in the real estate section of their local newspaper, and the stock market for that matter. Those in retirement trying to live off of their portfolio are paying the price for a reckless monetary policy. Rates need to be higher pronto. The editors of The Wall Street Journal write: Investors briefly bid up the 10-year Treasury yield above 3% on the news before it fell back to 2.97%. But forward guidance has always seemed overrated as a policy tool, and with growth picking up it was becoming a … [Read more...]
A Private Equity Quant Fund?
Yup, as the FT reports here, the folk at Man Group and AQR are developing quant funds to track the returns of private equity. How does one invest quantitatively in private companies? You don’t. The private equity quant funds will seek to replicate the returns of private equity in the public markets. It turns out that buying highly leveraged small-cap value stocks has a return profile similar to the returns of the private equity asset class (see research here for example). One has to applaud the quants for lifting the veil on many Private equity managers sole competitive advantage (that’s … [Read more...]
Highest Number of Pay Raises in Decades
The NFIB small business survey is showing the highest net number of firms raising worker pay in over three decades. A net 35% of small businesses polled report raising compensation over the last three months. This job market is on cooking. … [Read more...]
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