June 25, 2009 The Dow Utilities are down 5.0% YTD. The Dow Industrials are down 5.4%. And the cherry on the cake of the 2009 bear market in blue chip stocks is the 11.7% decline in the Dow Transports. The blue-chip triad reflects a number of serious concerns: (1) complete and total incompetence in Washington; (2) the worst world wide economy since the 30’s depression; (3) North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq; (4) the prelude to a nasty run up in U.S. interest rates and inflation; (5) at a 3.4% yield (Dow 30) blue chip stocks simply do not offer compelling value. Gold is up YTD, reflecting the … [Read more...]
A Saucer-Like Bottom in Housing
June 16, 2009 As an inference reading based futurist, my goal is to target unfolding trends and the catalysts to effect change. Areas of interest include terrorism, politics, currencies, government, world financial markets, and economies. Most immediately, I think the 17% jump in May housing construction in concert with May’s increase in building permits augers well for a saucer-like bottom in housing. Home builders were definitely less confident in June than they were in the spring. Mortgage rates have been rising and there remains a nasty overhang of unsold homes. As such, the U.S. has now … [Read more...]
One of the Best Leading Economic Indicators
June 12, 2009 The stock market is one of the best leading economic indicators. And investment grade U.S. stocks continue in a Bear market. (1) Dow Jones Industrials, down 0.1% (2) Dow Jones Transportations, down 5.6% (3) Dow Jones Utilities, down 7.6%. By contrast many International Indices are soaring (1) Brazil up 42% (2) Canada up 17% (3) Hong Kong up 26% (4) Japan up 11% and (5) Singapore up 32%. Moreover with a 25 p/e (based on 2009 estimates) and only a 3.3% yield the Blue Chip Dow Industrials simply do not offer compelling value. It is true that the speculative NASDAQ index is up 16% … [Read more...]
Fundamentals vs. Sentiment
Stocks are assets. The true value of any asset is simply the discounted value of all future cash flows. This holds true for stocks, bonds, property, natural resources, and even collectibles. To calculate the value of an asset you simply estimate all future cash flows and discount them at an appropriate rate. When you go through this exercise for a company you quickly realize that the value of any individual year's worth of cash flows accounts for a relatively small portion of that company's value. The majority of a company's value is determined by adding up discounted cash flows far into the … [Read more...]
Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities
The recent turmoil in the equity and credit markets has created angst and panic among investors. Emotionally charged investment decisions are being made without consideration to the long-term consequences. The insurance industry thrives in this type of environment. They offer neatly packaged products with bells and whistles that befuddle even the most experienced investors. The opportunities offered appear too good to be true and they are. A popular product with investors is variable annuities because they offer guarantees. The truth is, they are expensive and are anything but risk free. … [Read more...]
Crumbling Pillars
The pillars of support preventing the overvalued euro from depreciating versus the U.S. dollar are quickly crumbling. On a purchasing power parity basis, our favored approach to estimating long-term currency values, the euro is deeply overvalued and has been for some time (Chart 1). The euro has been supported by a positive and rising interest rate differential between euro interest rates and U.S. interest rates. Chart 2 shows the interest rate differential between 2-year government bonds in the Euro-Zone and the U.S. The widening interest rate differential was caused by … [Read more...]
The Energy Equivalent Value of Wood
People who live in cold northern climates are likely to face stiff home heating oil bills this winter. If heating oil prices average $5 per gallon this winter, as some analysts are estimating, the average heating oil consumer may have to fork over more than $4,000 just to keep warm. With many low and middle-income consumers already struggling from high prices at the pump, surging heating oil bills are not an expense some will be able to bear. One solution to ease high heating bills is wood. A cord or two of wood and a wood stove can go a long way in reducing home heating oil bills. To see … [Read more...]
International Investing & Taxes
Are you aware of the tax implications of international investing? When you invest in foreign securities, even those listed on U.S. exchanges, your investment is subject to foreign tax withholding. Foreign tax withholding is simply money that your broker takes out of your dividend income, capital gain, or interest income that is paid to the central government of the company you own. Withholding rates vary by country and source of income. Some countries require withholding on dividends, interest, and capital gains, and others only withhold income on dividends and interest. Why is this important … [Read more...]
There Will Be Water
Roberts County is a neat square in a remote corner of the Texas Panhandle, a land of rolling hills, tall grass, oak trees, mesquite, and cattle. It has a desolate beauty, a striking sparseness. The county encompasses 924 square miles and is home to fewer than 900 people. One of them is T. Boone Pickens, the oilman and corporate raider, who first bought some property here in 1971 to hunt quail. He's now the largest landowner in the county: His Mesa Vista ranch sprawls across some 68,000 acres. Pickens has also bought up the rights to a considerable amount of water that lies below this part of … [Read more...]
WARNING! Avoid the Catastrophic Thinking of Retirement Investing
Ah, retirement. Congratulations. You made it. Whether you got here by selling your business or working your way through corporate America, you’ve made it and you must feel relieved, excited, and probably a little nervous. Your retirement years should be some of the best in your life. But they are also some of the most nerve-racking, with no job to easily fall back on. With this in mind I’ve constructed a list of potentially catastrophic thoughts you might have and how to handle them. Picture yourself 10 years from now with the memories you might have of you and your spouse with grandchildren, … [Read more...]