At MarketWatch.com today, Quentin Fottrell reports that the number of multi-generational households has been skyrocketing in the last few years. Translation: a bunch of adult Americans are still living in Mom's basement. That's not good for them, or for the economy. Household formation is a great catalyst for economic growth, and more importantly, developing financial independence begins with, well..., independence. Young adults need to break out on their own and attempt to become members of the ownership society. Now, there are demographic trends holding back household formation. For … [Read more...]
Middle Class Left Behind in Current Housing Boom
In The Wall Street Journal, Laura Kusisto reports that prices are now just 2% below their 2006 peak, but those price gains aren't stemming from increased volume demand, but instead from lack of supply. Kusisto writes: Home prices rose in 83% of the nation’s 178 major real-estate markets in the second quarter, according to figures released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. Overall prices are now just 2% below the peak reached in July 2006, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. But most of the price gains, economists said, stem from a lack of fresh supply … [Read more...]
Gold: An Investment in Chaos
I like what Jim Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, has to say about gold and chaos. BusinessInsider.com reports: According to Matt Borin at the CFA Institute, Grant told the crowd at a recent conference of the New York Society of Security Analysts that the "case for gold is not as a hedge against monetary disorder, because we have monetary disorder, but rather an investment in monetary disorder." Grant noted that the $11.7 trillion in negative-yielding bonds has created an untenable situation in financial markets. This is Grant's monetary disorder. "Radical monetary … [Read more...]
Millennials Should be Buyers not Renters
I've written before (here, and here for starters) about the importance of ownership for young people. It's not easy facing massive student loans and the low earnings typical of entry-level jobs, but becoming an owner is a great goal for all Millennials and in fact, every American. But homeownership rates are at the lowest on record. Not for 51 years has ownership been so low. This is a function of the difficulty Millennials are having building family units and buying homes to house them. Bloomberg's Patrick Clark and Suzanne Woolley write that, while Millennials are having trouble … [Read more...]
Gold Market Modernization: WGC Announced LMEprecious
The World Gold Council has announced that with partners including the London Metal Exchange, Goldman Sachs, ICBC Standard Bank, Morgan Stanley, Natixis, OSTC, and Societe Generale, a new, centrally cleared exchange traded product called LMEprecious. The product "will comprise spot, daily and monthly futures, options and calendar spread contracts for gold and silver." Platinum and palladium contracts will be included in future developments. Chief Executive of the LME, Garry Jones said of the project, “We are delighted to be working with the World Gold Council and a group of leading banks, to … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Economics of the Olympics
Olympic Costs Explode It's no revelation that the Olympics have become an increasingly extravagant event, with costs and revenues ballooning in tandem to the games' size and importance as a signal for the host country's own wealth and status. But it's less well known how this came to be. James McBride explains the economics of hosting the Olympics. The 1970s marked a turning point, writes Andrew Zimbalist, author of Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup. The games were growing rapidly, with the number of Summer Olympics participants almost doubling … [Read more...]
How Much is Your $100 Worth?
How much is that Benjamin in your pocket really worth? If you live in New York or California, it may be a lot less than you think in relative value terms. But no surprise, your money is worth least in Washington D.C., where the relative value of $100 is a mere $84.67. Meanwhile, in Arkansas and Mississippi, your $100 gets stretched thanks to the low cost of living to $114.29 and $115.34 respectively. These numbers from The Tax Foundation are based BEA data. Alan Cole explains it here. Regional price differences are strikingly large; real purchasing power is 36 percent greater in Mississippi … [Read more...]
RAGE Gauge: Americans Unhappy
Throughout July, Americans signaled that they're feeling more risk. Gold prices pushed higher, people bought more guns, and most frighteningly, dissatisfaction with the country jumped from 69% to 82%. It's obvious the current political campaign is having an effect on people's moods, and rightly so. No matter who you're voting for, no one can deny this has been one of the most divisive, scandal filled, and partisan elections in memory. The RAGE Gauge remains at High Risk. But politics isn't the only thing creating risk. Deutsche Bank reported recently that the U.S. has a 60% chance of … [Read more...]
Bob Lutz on the Auto Industry
I saw this interview with Bob Lutz in the September 2016 issue of Car and Driver. C/D: Because automakers eat so much capital, will we eventually see only four or five remaining? BL: It's likely. With autonomous cars, you're gonna see more consolidation. Once we have transport modules, you order off the phone and brands won't matter anymore. When brands don't matter, the auto industry ends. It's got another 20 years. Bob Lutz On Where The Auto Industry is Headed … [Read more...]
The Trouble at DoubleLine Was Predictable
Fortune breaks the bad news to readers that Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubLine Total Return Bond Fund is having its worst year ever. Jeff Wieczner writes: DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach’s flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX) is having its longest streak of underperformance on record, lagging most of its peers as well as the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. After ranking second among comparable funds in 2015, the $61 billion fund now ranks in the bottom 7% so far in 2016, according to fund research firm Morningstar. The poor returns come after years of stellar returns for Gundlach, … [Read more...]
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