With a strong start out of the gates in 2013, U.S. stocks have now almost fully recovered from the devastating 57% plunge during the last bear market. Both the Dow and the S&P are once again bordering on all-time highs. Investors have long forgotten the dark days of the financial crisis. Fear is no longer the dominant theme on Wall Street. Greed is back in favor. Investors are convinced the next 50% move in stocks will be up rather than down. To some, the strong performance of stocks over recent years seems puzzling. Economic growth is tepid, unemployment is still nearly 8%, and … [Read more...]
Trade Pointing to Recession?
The BEA today released its report on the trade of goods and services into and out of the United States in the month of December. The trade deficit that has plagued America for decades shrank last month to $38.5 billion worth of goods and services. Optimists have pointed out, and correctly so, that the unexpectedly small deficit will likely cause a revision to fourth quarter GDP estimates that erase the modest reported decline. That’s the optimists’ view. However, there are two ways to read the recent trade release by the BEA. Yes, a revision will likely increase estimated GDP in the fourth … [Read more...]
These Interest Rates Are Up
When interest rates go up, it will happen overnight, and you won’t know about it until it’s too late. That’s the predicament the state of Illinois found itself in after it decided to shelve a bond deal literally hours before issuing them Wednesday. Why? Because the market demanded a higher rate of return than the state wanted to pay or could afford to pay. The state had hoped to raise $500 million (read: money to pay for pensions) with a school and transportation offering. But it got a good dose of sticker shock when it realized how much it would cost in interest payments. What did state … [Read more...]
Does the Economy Still Need Emergency Monetary Policy?
The economy may be growing slowly or even shrinking somewhat, but the time for radical monetary policy is long since over. Revisions in today’s employment report outlines clearly that the Fed is overreaching. In the last two months, those the Fed was looking at during its latest policy meeting, employment growth was revised significantly upward. The number of new jobs created in December increased from 155,000 to 196,000, and November’s total was revised from 161,000 to 247,000. These aren’t roaring numbers, but they certainly don’t call for emergency monetary policy. In fact, employment … [Read more...]
When the Levee Breaks
Some hedge funds are using leverage to boost returns. They’re doing it with bonds. With bond yields so low, it’s one way to meet the demands of their clients. But I wonder whether their clients understand the risk that they’re taking. After all, a lot of the beneficiaries are retired teachers who can’t afford to lose money to reckless investment decisions. I read one strategy that uses two-to-one leverage with the bond side of the portfolio. That’s great when interest rates go down. Remember, bond prices move in the opposite direction from interest rates. But it will be ugly when interest … [Read more...]
King Krugman: If Paul Were King
King Paul the I of New York lays out his dream that government revenues should be 40% of GDP. For a historical perspective, take a gander at the chart below. You'll see in blue the historic percentage of GDP received as revenue by the federal government (Source: WhiteHouse.gov) and in red you'll see King Krugman's new baseline. … [Read more...]
S&P Ripe for a Correction
After rocketing upward by 4.8% already in the new year, the S&P 500 is entering extreme overbought territory. On the chart below you can see the ratio of the S&P 500 price index to its 50 day moving average. The ratio is nearing 1.05, traditionally a turning point. What’s driving equity prices higher? It’s not earnings. Trailing P/E ratios of the S&P are increasing quickly. Is the market expecting faster growth in the future? Forward P/E ratios are increasing too, so that’s not the root cause. More likely, the cause is that the massive amounts of high powered money … [Read more...]
Municipal Bond Trap
Quite a few people have asked me about investing in municipal bonds lately. Now that the fiscal cliff is in the rearview mirror and the debt ceiling is dead ahead, more tax increases can’t be too far off. But either way, I don’t like municipal bonds. The downside risk you’re taking for the yield isn’t enough for me. The few municipal bonds that I might consider would be in states that don’t have any state income tax, so buying them defeats the purpose of tax-free investing at the state level. Then, there are the states that really need the money. They are not what I’d consider a good … [Read more...]
Election Year Buzz Turns into Hangover
Surprise, surprise, consumer sentiment in America reached its post-recession high in November, just as politicians were sending Americans to bed each night with dreams of jobs and prosperity on the horizon. Meanwhile, Americans supporting incumbents in 2012 told themselves everything was OK to justify voting for their candidates. That false positive sentiment bled through to surveys as expressed deluded hope. Now that those heady days are over, sentiment is based deeper in the reality that taxes have gone up on 77% of Americans, job growth remains anemic, gas prices remain elevated, and … [Read more...]
Ready, Fire, Aim!
When asked about the effectiveness of quantitative easing at a University of Michigan forum recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a curious and terrifying answer. It was curious for how forthright it was. It was terrifying because if the Fed already knows the answer, then their actions seem all the more unjustified. When asked about the program’s effectiveness Bernanke said “So far, we think we are getting some effect, it is kind of early. We are going to continue to assess how effective [the program is] because it is possible that as you move through time and the situation … [Read more...]
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