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Higher Unemployment amid Slow Job Gains

August 3, 2012 By Young Research

Today’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated an increase of 163,000 jobs in July (chart 1). That’s the most jobs added in four months, but still not enough to reduce unemployment. Coming in at 8.3% (chart 2), unemployment continued its four month upward trend. The rise in the unemployment rate was telegraphed around 17 months ago when jobless claims lost their downward momentum and began rising (chart 3). If claims numbers continue at elevated levels, expect more trouble in the jobs market. … [Read more...]

Manufacturing Staggers

August 1, 2012 By Young Research

For the second month in a row manufacturers reported declines (chart 1) in overall business, as recorded by the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business for July. Particularly worrisome for the future of the economy was a continued decline in both New Orders (chart 2) and Supplier Deliveries. These two components of the ISM are seen as leading indicators of economic strength or weakness. New Orders contracted for the second month in a row, while Supplier Deliveries (also known as Vendor Performance) contracted for the sixth month in a row. Backlogs of orders continued to decline as well, … [Read more...]

Not a Starbucks Issue

July 31, 2012 By E.J. Smith

In a Wall Street Journal front page report, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz hit the nail on the head regarding corporate profits. Coffee chain Starbucks last week warned that customer traffic in U.S. cafes began slowing in June. The softness continued in July, so the company cut its earnings guidance for the third quarter. "This is not a Starbucks issue," said Howard Schultz, chief executive. "This is a macro problem of weak consumer confidence." Corporate profits as a percent of GDP have been at unsustainable levels. You can see on my chart below that profits peaked out in the fourth quarter … [Read more...]

Facebook Un-Liked by Wall Street

July 27, 2012 By Young Research

We have warned readers on this website and in our premium strategy reports, Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report and Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy to avoid Facebook shares. After the company’s first earnings report was released yesterday, those warning were proved prescient. A Reuters report on the release by Alexei Oreskovic and Gerry Shih illustrates the drastic overvaluation that the IPO market attached to Facebook shares. Facebook Inc reported a drastic slowdown in revenue growth and failed to offer financial forecasts to quell fears about its ability to boost advertising … [Read more...]

What’s Your Fund Manager Doing behind Your Back?

July 26, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

In a recent article titled Fund Managers Seduced by Facebook, Joe Light of the Wall Street Journal exposes some poor practices of actively managed mutual funds. Some of the funds that bought shares wouldn't normally be considered natural investors in a high-growth technology company like Facebook. For example, some of the demand for Facebook came from funds designed primarily to invest in dividend-paying companies or low-priced "value" stocks. Facebook is neither. If Facebook doesn’t fit the fund’s profile, why would managers invest in it? Most were probably looking to make a quick buck in … [Read more...]

Transports Signal Trouble

July 25, 2012 By Young Research

Our chart of the Dow Transports compared to the Dow Industrials indicates that the transports are breaking down on a relative basis. Resistance established in March and May is about to be broken through, indicating the transports are falling behind the industrials at a faster pace. Transports lead the stock market, and weakness in the economy is often telegraphed by their performance first. Continued weakness compared to the Dow Industrials would not be a good sign for the economy.   … [Read more...]

Your Winning Formula for Dividend Investment Success

July 18, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

When we started Young Research’s Retirement Compounders (RCs) in 2003, the goal was to look for a compelling competitive advantage to make the RCs a big winner, especially during bad times. Our strategy was to accept underperformance during speculative market runs, regardless of the duration, with the expected tradeoff of better performance during bad markets. Patience is always required with such a strategy. The idea was never to beat the market over time or on a consistent basis. Rather, we fully expected the low risk RCs (both price risk and business risk) to trail the major market … [Read more...]

Fed Says Fed Most Important to Your Returns

July 16, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

We have noted often on this site and in our monthly strategy reports, that in recent years, Federal Reserve policy has become the main determinant of stock market performance. When the Fed opens the monetary spigot (or hints at it) stock prices rise and when they shut off the valve, prices fall. In a recent blog post, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York attributed over 80% of the return on stocks over the past two decades to, well, itself. The article titled The Puzzling Pre-FOMC Announcement “Drift”, sites a Fed report that finds “that since 1994, more than 80 percent of the equity … [Read more...]

Fed Counts its Chickens Before they Hatch

July 12, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

It is no secret that the hubris from the economists at the Federal Reserve is palpable, but a recent piece from San Francisco Fed president John Williams takes the cake. In the bank’s monthly economic letter Williams does a premature victory dance for the unconventional monetary policy and bashes the great Milton Friedman in the process. Below are some excerpts from his paper with my comments. Milton Friedman (1970) famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than … [Read more...]

Job Creator Confidence Plunges

July 11, 2012 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index plunged 3 points in June—its biggest drop in over two years. Nine out of the ten components in the index worsened last month. The only component that improved was credit conditions—no surprise given record low interest rates. But easy money doesn’t do much to stimulate the economy when businesses aren’t interested in expanding. And according to the NFIB small business survey, only 5% of businesses think now is a good time to expand—a level historically associated with recession. America’s job creators don’t want to expand because of the weak economy and … [Read more...]

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