Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

A Guide to 2010 Investment Returns

By

In 2010, the monetary policies of the world's three largest central banks are likely to play a big role in the performance of global equity markets. The vast majority of the world's wealth—close to 80%, by some estimates—is concentrated in the U.S., Japan, and the euro area. My chart shows that the GDP-weighted risk-free rate in these three economies is only 0.14%. A 0.14% T-bill rate would not be a concern if the global economy were still in free fall, but it isn't. The global economy bottomed in the second quarter of 2009. The IMF projects that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2010. … [Read more...]

How to Boost the Yield on Your Portfolio

By

January 22, 2010 Punishing yields of 0.05% on three-month T-bills and .85% on short-term Treasury notes are devastating to the millions of investors who rely on income from their portfolios to fund living expenses. The temptation for many of these investors is to reach for yield. Some investors are loading up on long bonds. You can pick up an additional 3% in yield by moving into long bonds, but you also add an extraordinary amount of risk. If rates move up, investors in long bonds will get creamed. I’m talking about losses that dwarf what many investors experienced in the recent bear market … [Read more...]

The World’s Most Profitable Trade

By

January 15, 2010 In 2009, one investor earned more than the combined profits of Exxon Mobil, Microsoft, and Wal-Mart by employing a common Wall Street trading strategy-the carry trade. The carry trade is a strategy where an investor borrows money at a low rate and invests the proceeds at a higher rate. To make substantial profits from the carry trade, you have to use gobs of leverage. The investor I am talking about used leverage of more than 40 to 1-enough to make even Goldman Sachs blush. What investor in his right mind would use leverage of 40 to 1 so soon after the worst credit crisis in … [Read more...]

Pull Your Head Out of the Sand

By

In a recent speech to the American Economic Association, Fed Chairman Bernanke offered his explanation of the causes of the housing bubble. Mr. Bernanke contends that easy money in the early years of this decade did not cause or even significantly contribute to the housing bubble. He also contends that the housing bubble was caused by a global savings glut and the growth in non-traditional mortgage products-option ARMs, Alt-A mortgages, and negative amortization loans. Mr. Bernanke ran through simulations and mortgage statistics, and he even broke out fancy equations. His explanation was very … [Read more...]

Harry Reid’s Resignation?

By

January 8, 2010 While today it appears probable that Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will be defeated in his 2010 bid for reelection, an increasing number of Americans must in fact want to see Senator Reid resign. The Senate health-care bill transfers massive regulatory power to the federal government, erects massive federal controls over private health insurance, dictates the content of insurance benefits packages, reduces many seniors’ access to Medicare benefits and services, provides federal funding for abortion, and increases the Medicare payroll tax for individuals making … [Read more...]

Investment of the Decade

By

Trust has been kicked to the curb by Washington and Wall Street. Not a smart move, as the former prepares for mid-term elections and the latter feels the effects of investors voting with their feet. Many clients and brokers have fled the big Wall Street firms for independent advisors. Washington and Wall Street may realize too late that trust is a terrible thing to waste. The bailout of Bear Stearns, Lehman's bankruptcy, the controversial merger between Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, and Citigroup's near collapse had little to do with their client brokerage accounts. In fact, brokerage … [Read more...]

My New Year’s Gift to You

By

December 31, 2009 To get you started on the right track in the New Year, we are offering a friends and family price of only $99 on a three-month subscription to Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy-our premium-level strategy report. Young Research’s Global Investment Strategy offers vital intelligence that savvy, sophisticated investors need in order to craft a globally diversified portfolio. Global Investment Strategy covers global economic and monetary trends, currencies, commodities, and global credit and equity markets, including distressed securities and special situations. This … [Read more...]

Natural Gas Rising

By

December 18, 2009 My goal for American security and safety is to cut oil use by 50%, driving the price of oil back to the $10 per barrel level of a decade ago. Americans can in fact achieve this goal by changing over our ground transportation and home heating mix from oil to gas and electric. Exxon has now made a huge domestic gas bet by seeking to acquire our #3 U.S. natural gas production player. These are America’s top 10 natural gas producers: 1.BP 2.Anadarko Petroleum 3.XTO Energy 4.Chesapeake Energy 5.Devon Energy 6.ConocoPhillips 7.EnCana 8.Chevron 9.Exxon … [Read more...]

Boost Employment – Guaranteed

By

December 11, 2009 Did you catch President Obama’s jobs speech this week? Is this guy kidding? He wants a do-over of the stimulus. Of course, you can understand his motivation. The Obama-fronted Radical Progressive Movement (RPM) promised Americans that a massive fiscal stimulus was the last, best way to ignite economic growth. The president’s own economic team projected that a mere $800-billion stimulus was all that was needed to prevent unemployment from rising above 8.5%. Today, the unemployment rate stands at 10%, not counting the millions of discouraged and underemployed workers. The … [Read more...]

The Economic Dream Team

By

An unemployment rate of 10% has put the administration and its allies in Congress on the defensive. The president's $787-billion stimulus was supposed to stem job losses and keep unemployment from reaching double digits. Predictably, there has been little or no benefit from the poorly designed stimulus. So back to the drawing board we go. The administration is proposing a second stimulus plan. Does this plan have any chance at success? It's doubtful. The problem here is that President Obama and his inner circle of economic advisors are short on relevant private-sector experience. The … [Read more...]