China is building a long-term influence network in the greater Black Sea region through infrastructure investments, trade deals, and political partnerships, especially in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. This strategy extends beyond commerce, using telecom, energy, and digital infrastructure to embed itself in local governance and elite networks, according to Michael Cecire at Rand.org. At the core is an increasingly one-sided relationship with Russia, where Beijing gains leverage while Moscow becomes more dependent. Rather than seeking domination, China aims to shape regional dynamics in ways that undermine Western unity and deepen its strategic footprint across Eurasia. Cecire writes:
China is quietly constructing an influence ecosystem in the greater Black Sea region that transcends mere commerce. Energy corridors, digital infrastructure, free-trade frameworks, and political alignments are converging to give Beijing lasting leverage in Eurasia. Central to this effort is China’s asymmetric but deepening relationship with Russia, which increasingly functions less as a coequal partner than a dependent proxy. […]
The China-Russia relationship is foundational to understanding China’s regional posture. Rather than an alliance of equals, the partnership has evolved into an asymmetric dependency: Russia supplies discounted energy and geopolitical disruption, while China delivers technology, trade flows, and financial lifelines. In 2024, bilateral trade surpassed $240 billion, and Chinese companies became key suppliers of dual-use goods—many rebranded as civilian—to Russia’s drone and electronics sectors. […]
Tracking this convergence—where economic presence becomes political influence—is essential for understanding the strategic future of the Black Sea and broader Eurasia. The evidence already suggests a deliberate architecture. What comes next is watching how it consolidates, how states resist or absorb it, and what it means for the next phase of global competition.
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