One of the “must dos” for any serious investor is to make sure your investment house is in order as year-end quickly approaches. Ensuring that you have the best technology is an important way to do that, and I have found through years of experience with different custodians that Fidelity has always been the industry's technology leader (this is not a paid endorsement, just the truth learned from my experience). Fidelity's technology leadership began in its earliest days, pushed on by former Chairman Ned Johnson's passion. I recently wrote about Johnson's focus on technology that "He … [Read more...]

U.S. equity markets tumbled last week, with the S&P 500 down more than 4.5%, and the Russell 2000 index of small company stocks falling 5.50%. Both indices hit all time highs in late summer/early fall, but since then the ride has gotten rough. Since August 31st of this year, the Russell 2000 index is down almost 17% and the S&P 500 has fallen by about 9%. Young Research’s maximum safety Dynamic Maximizers® portfolio is up about 7 basis points over the same time period. The Dynamic Maximizers® portfolio has not experienced a down year this century, and we anticipate another up year … [Read more...]

I have written in the past that politics can have a great effect on market performance. Today America is enduring one of the most contentious political climates in memory, and at the same time the stock market has become volatile. The best year in the four-year presidential election cycle is the year before the election. In this cycle that’s 2019. Since 1875, the average performance of the S&P 500 in the calendar year before a presidential election has been 14.3%. The presidential election year itself comes in next with an average of 10.9%, and midterm election years and the year after … [Read more...]

Last week Vanguard founder Jack Bogle spoke out about the dangers of index funds, something he helped pioneer. Take a look back at this piece I posted on October 12, 2017 for more depth on the issue.  Let the good times roll? Great lyrics from the Cars but it’s a song I can’t get out of my head thinking about the money piling up by the truckload at Vanguard’s back door. We’re talking nearly $300 billion in the first nine months of this year alone. All of that money unloaded and stacked up with the rest of the $4.7 trillion at the firm. That’s a lot of confidence in one company. And maybe … [Read more...]

As Christmas approaches is there anything better than an ice-cold oyster and a sip of Prosecco? For me, it’s the combo that reminds me of Summer while Newport is frozen. It’s the counterbalance that makes it fun and it’s the Prosecco that keeps more money in my pocket for compounding. Understanding both concepts, counterbalance and compounding, are key for us all as I explain here: Yesterday’s trashing in the stock market offers us a chance to review the arithmetic of losses and the value in a counterbalanced strategy. Technology shares as represented by the Nasdaq composite index lost … [Read more...]

Yesterday’s trashing in the stock market offers us a chance to review the arithmetic of losses and the value in a counterbalanced strategy. Technology shares as represented by the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.8% on the day. Let’s say, for example you began the day with $10,000 in Nasdaq. By late afternoon, when the market closed, it was worth $9,620 or down 3.8%. You now need (not a good word in investing) a gain of 4% to get back to even. Now, imagine a string of ten days like yesterday, or a 38% decline. A 61% gain is needed just to get back to even, or where you began with … [Read more...]

You may have read Rich Man, Poor Man—one of my favorite pieces ever written by the late great investment writer Richard Russell. It’s one of those timeless pieces that makes me feel like he’s still with us. And with the passing of President George H.W. Bush, I’m reminded of the sacrifices of the “Greatest Generation” and their unique perspective on life. You see, Richard Russell served in World War II, like President Bush, and knew what it felt like to worry about survival. He knew what it felt like to not know if he’d get out alive. And he remembered, for the rest of his life, those who … [Read more...]

When you measure performance in your portfolio, are you getting the right picture? If you are like most investors, the answer is no. Here is what I wrote in December 2013 about how you should be measuring performance: Cycles and Investment Success Understanding cycles is vital to your long-term investment success. Most folk intuitively understand that the economy and the financial markets go through cycles. The economy expands and then it contracts, the stock market rises and falls, interest rates go up and they go down. Cycles just come with the territory in a free market economy, but … [Read more...]

Before you answer, remember that at least 50% of gunfighters end up dead. Are you the type of person who will dutifully grow your investment portfolio over the years by shepherding it in the right direction? Or will you risk it all in one high risk gunfight after another until your number is called? Consider what I wrote here, thirty years ago in December of 1988. It’s a comparison of some high-level shepherding vs. some inexperienced gun slinging. Do you know the two most powerful words in investing? If you’ve been with me through the years, you know the answer. But for all of my … [Read more...]

Most Americans are simply not saving enough. GOBankingRates released a survey this week showing that 42% of Americans will retire broke. Hopefully, that doesn’t include you, but even if you have been saving, it’s a good bet you could do more. In July 2014, I explained to readers why they should boost savings. Boost Your Savings The strategy implication of a low-return environment is that savings must play a greater role in your investment plan. The stock and bond markets aren’t going to bail you out. To secure a prosperous financial future, today’s low-return environment demands that … [Read more...]