If prices rise, but the government doesn't measure it, does inflation exist? There are major holes in the government's measurement of inflation. Lisa Beilfuss explains in Barron's here: There are economic models, and there is real life. Over the past week alone, the price of corn rose 8% to the highest level since 2013, while soybeans and wheat prices hit their highest points since 2014. The CRB foodstuff index, which includes hogs, butter, and sugar, in addition to grains and other agricultural commodities, is up 15% this year and trading at the highest level since summer 2012. Grocery … [Read more...]
Gold, Silver, and Currencies
Young Research & Publishing has been providing research and insights on precious metals and currency markets to institutional investors, corporate financial officers, business owners, and individual investors for over four decades. Richard C. Young started Young Research & Publishing in the 70s to publish the authoritative Young's World Money Forecast, a 50-page monthly investment report on the precious metals and currency markets. Today, our research on gold, silver, and currencies is geared toward investors in or nearing retirement who are looking to preserve and protect wealth.
TIPS Not the Best Inflation Hedge Today
By Noska Photo @ Shutterstock.com There are better places for investors looking to avoid inflation pressures in their portfolios than TIPS. Alexandra Scaggs reports in Barron's: Investors in search of ways to protect their income against inflation may need to look further than they think: The market created for that purpose may not be a great choice, for either income or returns.Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, have attracted investor cash this year as investors bet that a mix of economic reopening and U.S. government stimulus will drive prices higher in the U.S. Funds … [Read more...]
Turkey Bans Bitcoin
The WSJ reports that Turkey has moved to ban Bitcoin payments as Turks lose confidence in the lira. This is a preview of what Bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to face over coming years. Countries with the least stable currencies will move first to ban Bitcoin, but developed countries are also likely to act. The bottom line on Bitcoin is that it is a threat to fiat currencies and therefore central banks and ultimately fiscal authorities running massive deficits. Turkey will ban the use of cryptocurrencies as a form of payment following months of economic turbulence that spurred locals to swap … [Read more...]
Is Inflation Imminent? Prepare Now
At FT, Pascal Blanque, explains that inflation is imminent and that investors must prepare themselves for what's to come. He writes: A change in market regime often occurs with a change in the mandate of central banks. The central focus on inflation targeting that started with the arrival of Paul Volcker at the helm of the Fed in 1979 is fading. This much is clear from the new priorities recently adopted by two central banks: achieving full and inclusive employment by the Fed and reducing global warming by the Bank of England. For investors, this means the rise in bond yields might not be … [Read more...]
Could Bitcoin Be Outlawed?
Could bitcoin be outlawed? That's what Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates believes could happen. Mark DeCambre reports at MarketWatch: Bitcoin is enjoying its moment in the sun now, but the world’s No. 1 digital asset could face major resistance by government’s looking to rein in the decentralized crypto, according to Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio. “Every country treasures its monopoly on controlling the supply and demand. They don’t want other moneys to be operating or competing, because things can get out of control. So I think that it would be very likely that you will have it under … [Read more...]
This Is When Things Get Interesting in Currency and Bond Markets
Today, the Australian Central Bank doubled the size of its daily bond purchases to hold down the rise in long-term Australian interest rates. The market says Australian rates are too low and need to rise. The central bank disagrees, but if the market ends up having the correct view of the exchange rate, look for the Australian dollar to start depreciating. The FT has more on Australia’s decision: Australia’s central bank doubled the size of its regular bond purchases on Monday in a move that analysts say will have broad implications as policymakers consider their response to a global jump in … [Read more...]
Massive Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Fraud
Joel Rosenblatt and Chris Dolmetsch report for Bloomberg on the case of Stefan He Qin, a cryptocurrency hedge fund founder who has admitted to $100 million in fraud. They write: The 24-year-old founder of Virgil Capital, which ran two cryptocurrency hedge funds, admitted to duping investors out of almost $100 million and using the money to support a lavish lifestyle. Stefan He Qin pleaded guilty Thursday in federal court in New York and faces as much as 20 years in prison at his sentencing in May. Prosecutors said the Australian national stole investor money from Virgil Sigma Fund LP, a … [Read more...]
Bitcoin: When a Store of Value Is Manipulated
What happens when a store of value is manipulated? It no longer becomes a store of value. You know how this story will end. From Andy Kessler in The Wall Street Journal: Meanwhile, lo and behold, around the same time as that letter, Tether temporarily stopped creating any more currency. That might explain bitcoin’s quick mid-January price drop from $42,000 to under $30,000. If fraud is uncovered, look out below. Normally I wouldn’t care. Bitcoin is nothing, it’s vapor, a concept of an idea. Transactions using bitcoin are few and far between. It’s not a store of value—anything that drops … [Read more...]
H2O, Skiing, Hiding A$$ET$, Bitcoin, Ammo & More
In my conversations with you, you’re telling me the skiing out west is great. The liftlines, not so much. Turns out Covid’s a ski buddy. It’s not unusual to see chair, after chair, after chair, with one skier per chair, each from the same group, to social distance. Insane. At least the skiing’s good. You’re telling me from Park City/Deer Valley up to Big Sky and Whitefish, MT, it’s good to be outside. I hear you. We ventured out to the slopes here on the east coast between Christmas and New Year’s and had to contend with Covid liftlines too. The skiing? A little dicey. One run from the top … [Read more...]
The Government Should Ban Bitcoin Now Not Later
Bitcoin is enjoying another wave of investor interest this time with institutional backing. We know some of the smartest investors own Bitcoin. The technology backing bitcoin has some interesting applications in our view, but as far as bitcoin becoming legal tender, at best it looks like a long-odds gamble. No central bank in the world is going to allow a currency with a fixed supply to supplant a fiat currency. The U.S. would be bankrupt in a minute if it couldn’t print its own currency to pay its debts. So would Japan and many other countries. Rather than permitting speculation in … [Read more...]
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