The liberal electronic and print media will shortly be howling – with cartoon-size bold headlines – about dividend cuts. We just began the second quarter of the year. Third-quarter earnings reports will, thanks to the lying Chinese, be breathtakingly ugly. And the media will be out in full force glomming on to disruption. Words like recession and depression will fill the media channels. Greedy and grasping stockbrokers will be out, in full-scale hyena mode, yelling, "sell, sell, sell." Serious, long-term, compound interest focused mavens will follow my lead by engaging in a quiet, … [Read more...]
What Should Harley Do Now?
Harley was Young Research’s "Stock of the Decade" in the 1990s. The shares were first recommended as a buy in May of 1992 at a price of $3.62. During the 2000s, we advised a series of buys and sells chronicled in the chart below. The chart runs through 2007 and there was only one additional buy and sell recommendation that was essentially a wash. On the sale we explained: “The dynamics of Harley’s business have changed. HOG has transitioned from a growth company to a cyclical company reliant on a consumer that may be jobless, over-indebted, and unable to obtain financing. Demand for … [Read more...]
Barter is Back: Know the True Value of Your Eggs and Soap
Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part XXIII Barter is back. You may be one of the Americans who has been forced to trade eggs or soap for toilet paper. But you need to know the true value of what you own. That goes for your investments as well. Olga Kharif reports at Bloomberg: Since the beginning of March, unattended folding tables have begun popping up at intersections and the end of people’s driveways, offering everyday goods like rice, a jar of jam or bread. Take what you need and leave what you can, the signs say. Barter, the trade system prevalent in the Middle Ages, is back in the … [Read more...]
Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part XXII
Only Trump Saw the Risk in America's Relationship with China You’ve known for some time now that for many Americans today the “American Dream” is simply that, a dream. You’ve instinctively known this. It was in your gut. If you haven’t, hopefully you’ll seek out the peace of mind and safety you deserve when the coast is clear. That may be a while. You know I’ve been a big supporter of the message Tucker Carlson’s been making on his show each night, that we need an American Dream (my words) that is open to Americans. When I was in college, globalism dominated discussions about the … [Read more...]
Working Seven Days a Week in Sunny Key West
Value, dividends, interest, and compounding have formed the foundation I have given to my investment subscribers and consulting clients since 1964. For the first time since I began following the guidance of Ben Graham back in the early 1960s, I am able today to invest in some dividend payers that would have put a smile on Ben’s face. For me and I hope for each of my longtime clients, there is much to be thankful for. There is a bright light at the end of the current long, dark tunnel. I don’t expect in my lifetime to see such values again. And I do not plan to miss one minute on the hunt … [Read more...]
The Russian Ruble Crisis
Six years ago, oil was trading at $100 per barrel and the Russian ruble was trading at 35 to the dollar. Translating that exchange rate into oligarch terms, it would have taken about 4.5 million rubles to buy one of Mercedes’ coveted G-class SUVs. Today, oil trades at about $20 per barrel and for oligarchs with 4.5 million rubles to spend on a SUV, it's time to start looking at Chevys. … [Read more...]
U.S. Intelligence Says China is Lying About its Coronavirus Numbers
According to sources in the U.S. intelligence community, China is lying about the number of cases and deaths the country has suffered from the COVID-19 coronavirus. Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs report: China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials. The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. … [Read more...]
My Three-Week-Long Investing Program
I am ramping it up over the month of April into May. Our Young's Dynamic Maximizers portfolio (a fixed income alternative) is actually up 2.5% YTD, or an annual annualized 7.5%. I find this performance most encouraging. My own largest fixed income holding (individual bonds, while clearly a superior option are not ideal for me as I am on the road and out of touch at annoying times) a full-faith-and-credit-pledge GNMA’s-centric fund is ahead by 3.0%, or an annualized 12.0%. I am happy with this. GLD, one of my gold proxies is ahead by 6.5%, or an annualized 26%. My Swiss currency … [Read more...]
Coronavirus Infects Stock Market: Part XXI
How are you holding up? Other than the fact that today feels like yesterday, you’re telling me you’re OK. If you had a well-diversified, balanced investment plan—your retirement plan is still intact. Retirement planning isn’t fun. It’s not supposed to be fun. But, putting the fun aside, aren’t you glad you spent time thinking about your retirement many years ago? Whether through our conversations or Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, you began understanding the importance of a well thought out strategy. Based on the performance numbers for balanced portfolios, you’ve been able to … [Read more...]
Coronavirus Case Growth Update
Below are updated coronavirus case daily growth numbers through yesterday. Growth in cases in Italy continues to slow which offers hope for the U.S. and other countries still seeing too rapid case growth. South Korea’s numbers have ticked up, but still look under control. There have also been downticks in France, Germany, the U.S., and Spain, but it may be early to judge if those are real trends or testing constraints. … [Read more...]
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