The Department of Energy’s report, Evaluating the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid (July 7, 2025), outlines a national strategy to expand U.S. nuclear power from its current 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050. It emphasizes the deployment of advanced reactors, streamlining licensing processes, enhancing infrastructure, and strengthening grid reliability and security to meet climate goals and energy demands. The DOE writes:
This report and the associated analysis were prepared by the Department of Energy (DOE) to evaluate both the current state of resource adequacy and future pressures resulting from the combined impact of announced power plant retirements and significant load growth.
The work was developed in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). DOE extends its thanks to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) for providing data used in this study, the Telos Corporation for their assistance in data interpretation, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for disseminating historical datasets. Special thanks also go to NREL for providing synthetic weather data, created by Evolved Energy Research for the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model.
DOE recognizes that the resource adequacy analysis supporting this study would benefit from more in-depth engineering assessments typically conducted at the regional and utility levels. While the study team built the methodology on the best available data, grid operators and utilities possess a broader range of data and insights that could further strengthen reliability decisions—including those related to resource adequacy, operational reliability, and grid resilience.
Historically, electric reliability information was shared with DOE through mechanisms like the now-discontinued EIA-411 report. A key takeaway from this study is the urgent call to action for enhanced regional engagement, collaboration, and robust data exchange—all of which are essential to confronting the nation’s pressing reliability and security challenges, and to protecting both economic and national security.
On April 8, 2025, President Trump issued Executive Order 14262, “Strengthening the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid.” This directive builds on Executive Order 14156, “Declaring a National Emergency” (Jan. 20, 2025), which stated that the previous administration had led the nation into a national energy emergency, marked by an inadequate and intermittent energy supply and an increasingly unreliable grid requiring immediate action.
The executive order emphasizes that the United States’ ability to remain at the forefront of technological innovation depends on a reliable energy supply and the integrity of the national electrical grid.
EO 14262 mandates the development of a uniform methodology for analyzing both current and anticipated reserve margins across regions of the bulk power system regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Among other requirements, it specifies that the methodology must accredit generation resources based on the historical performance of each generation resource type.
This report serves as the Department of Energy’s (DOE) response to Section 3(b) of EO 14262, delivering the required uniform methodology to identify at-risk regions and guide reliability interventions. The methodology and its resulting analyses will be regularly reviewed to ensure their effectiveness for industry and government decision-makers across the United States.
The United States possesses abundant energy resources and capabilities, including oil and gas, coal, and nuclear power. The current administration has taken significant steps—such as deregulation, permitting reform, and other measures—to enable the development of critical energy infrastructure needed to fully utilize these resources.
However, these foundational strengths are being undermined by the accelerated retirement of existing generation capacity and an insufficient pace of firm, dispatchable generation additions. This trend is partly due to a recent policy emphasis on intermittent sources like wind and solar, rather than dispatchable, always-available energy sources.
Without decisive intervention, the U.S. power grid will not be able to meet the projected demand from manufacturing, re-industrialization, and the rapid expansion of data centers supporting artificial intelligence (AI). Failing to build the energy infrastructure necessary to support these needs could allow adversary nations to shape global digital norms and control critical digital infrastructure, putting U.S. economic and national security at risk.
Despite progress in diversifying the U.S. energy mix, this analysis makes clear that bold and immediate reforms are necessary. These reforms are essential not only to support growing AI-driven demand, but also to maintain grid reliability and ensure affordable energy for all Americans.
Key Takeaways
Status Quo is Unsustainable
The continued retirement of generation assets without dependable replacements is incompatible with winning the AI race, ensuring affordable energy, and maintaining grid reliability. Without decisive action, the U.S. bulk power system cannot meet AI-driven load growth while keeping energy costs low.Grid Growth Must Match the Pace of AI Innovation
Projected load growth—driven by AI, re-industrialization, and data centers—far outpaces current grid expansion practices. A radical change in infrastructure planning and deployment is required to fully unlock the benefits of innovation.Retirements + Load Growth = 100x Greater Risk of Outages by 2030
The scheduled retirement of 104 GW of firm capacity by 2030, without one-to-one replacement, creates a major resource adequacy risk. In DOE’s “plant closures” scenario, annual loss-of-load hours (LOLH) increased by a factor of 100.Planned Supply Falls Short — Reliability at Risk
While 209 GW of new generation is projected by 2030, only 22 GW is expected to come from firm, baseload sources. Even in a no-retirement scenario, the model found outage risk increases 34-fold.Old Tools Won’t Solve New Problems
Legacy methods of evaluating resource adequacy fail to address modern grid challenges. New approaches must:
Account for the frequency, magnitude, and duration of outages
Go beyond peak load analysis
Use integrated models to reflect growing reliance on regional interconnections
Read the full report here.
