Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure – Please click here to read the full disclosure.

  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Archives
    • Dick Young’s Safe America
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • Crisis at Vanguard
  • Investment Analysis
    • Bonds
    • Currencies and Gold
    • Dividend Investing
    • ETFs & Funds
    • Investment Strategy
    • Retirement Investing
    • Stocks
    • The Efficient Frontier
  • Investment Counsel
  • Retirement Compounders®
  • Free Email Signup

How to Time Markets with Accuracy

October 27, 2016 By Jeremy Jones, CFA

Market timing is a tough business. Most professionals who try market timing lose. When self-directed investors pursue this strategy, the results are often dismal. Here The Economist explains one indicator that has been around for years that has shown success in spotting market turning points. You of course wouldn’t want to go full hog on this strategy, but as a contrarian indicator, it has had some success.

FINDING a reliable way of timing the market is something that has eluded the greatest investment minds in history. That is why many people are tempted by the “magazine cover indicator” as a contrarian signal. One of the most famous was Business Week’s “Death of Equities” cover in 1979 (which actually came three years before the great bull market got going).

Two analysts from Citigroup, Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly, write that:

The premise behind the indicator is that when a journalist or editor finally devotes a cover to a market trend, company, country or person, the story or theme has been in vogue for some time and is likely past its peak. Positioning and sentiment should already fully reflect the story on the cover of the publication and the story should be fully priced in. In other words, by the time a journalist writes about the trend, a majority of the move has already happened….

The analysts—the cheeky devils—decided to apply the test to The Economist’s covers. They selected 44 cover images from between 1998 and 2016 that seemed to make an optimistic or pessimistic point….

Interestingly, their analysis finds that after 180 days only about 53.3% of Economist covers are contrarian; little better than tossing a coin. After 360 days, the signal is a lot more reliable—68.2% are contrarian. Buying the asset if the cover is very bearish results in an 18% return over the following year; shorting the asset when the cover is bullish generates a return of 7.5%.

 

Share this:

  • Email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook

You Might Also Like:

  • FOMO a Dangerous Investment Strategy
  • Steam Rolled
  • A 2019 Survival Guy Investment Strategy
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Jeremy Jones, CFA
Jeremy Jones, CFA, CFP® is the Director of Research at Young Research & Publishing Inc., and the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. CNBC has ranked Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. as one of the Top 100 Financial Advisors in the nation (2019-2022) Disclosure. Jeremy is also a contributing editor of youngresearch.com.
Latest posts by Jeremy Jones, CFA (see all)
  • Money Market Assets Hit Record High: $5.4 Trillion - May 26, 2023
  • The Mania in AI Stocks Has Arrived - May 25, 2023
  • The Wisdom of Sam Zell - May 24, 2023

Search Young Research

Most Popular

  • Starving for Fixed Income? I Can Help
  • June Is Retirement Compounders Month
  • ALLIGATOR MARKET: Calm Surface Hides Danger Below
  • Vanguard Wellesley (VWINX) vs. Wellington (VWELX): Which Fund is Best?
  • CBDCs Not “Just Another Form of Money”
  • What's Hiding In the London Metals Exchange Warehouses?
  • End of ESG?
  • China Increases Its Gold Reserves for Seventh Month Straight
  • Successful Investing Is a Mindset
  • Young’s Retirement Compounders

Don’t Miss

Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities

Risk and Reward: An Efficient Frontier

How to be a Billionaire: Proven Strategies from the Titans of Wealth

Cryptocosm and Life After Google

Warning: Avoid Mutual Fund Year End Distributions

Is Gold a Good Long-term Investment?

How to Invest in Gold

Vanguard Wellington (VWELX): The Original Balanced Fund

What is the Best Gold ETF for Investing and Trading?

Procter & Gamble (PG) Stock: The Only True Dividend King

The Dividend King of the North

You’ll Love This if You’re Dreaming of an Active Retirement Life

The Importance of a Balanced Portfolio

Invest with Peace of Mind and Comfort

What Kind of Life Are You Investing For?

RSS The Latest at Richardcyoung.com

  • Smoke Gets in Your Eyes
  • Investing Mistakes to Avoid: #10 Picked Off First
  • Carlson Urges America: “Cling to Your Taboos!”
  • TRUMP INDICTED: President Releases Video Defending Innocence
  • Oh Canada: Wildfires at a Blistering Pace
  • RAGE Gauge June: Remember When You Were A Kid and Money Was Free?
  • What Do You Know About Vanguard’s Wellesley Income Fund?
  • CRUMBLING EMPIRE: Major Hotel Flees San Francisco as City Suffers
  • MUSIC IN DANGER: Is This the Worst Use for AI?
  • Crushing the Heretics

RSS The Latest at Yoursurvivalguy.com

  • Investing Mistakes to Avoid: #10 Picked Off First
  • HOUSING CRISIS: California Could Face Mortgage Default Tsunami
  • Why Is Biden Sacrificing Mining Dominance to the Chinese?
  • RAGE Gauge June: Remember When You Were A Kid and Money Was Free?
  • Your Retirement Life: Striped Bass Fishing off Block Island
  • Artificial Intelligence or Four-Year Olds?
  • Forbes Global 2000: The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall?
  • Starving for Fixed Income? I Can Help
  • SUPER STATE RISING? This State Is Doing All the Right Things
  • End of ESG?

About Us

  • About Young Research
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Our Partners

  • Richard C. Young & Co.
  • Richardcyoung.com

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.