A new UBS report, led by China-based analysts and backed by over 30 contributors, forecasts that 2 million humanoid robots will be deployed within the next decade, increasing to 300 million by 2050, helping to ease global labor shortages. According to Morningstar, the report estimates that the total addressable market will reach $30–50 billion by 2035 and expand to $1.4–1.7 trillion by 2050, encompassing hardware, manufacturing, software, data, and related services. UBS writes:
Humanoid Robots: From Sci-Fi to Reality
The concept of robots that look and behave like humans is no longer confined to the realm of science fiction. Recent advancements in actuator performance, sensing, and interactive capabilities have led to the emergence of humanoid robot models at various stages of commercialization. We explore the development and future growth of humanoid robots, as well as the technological and regulatory progress required to bring this century-old dream to fruition.
Case for Humanoid Robots
Aging populations, labor shortages, and low productivity gains in service sectors bolster the case for humanoid robots. Their human-like form offers the advantage of seamless integration into daily life. While early humanoids are already operational in manufacturing and warehouses, most current models are designed for research and development. Industrial sectors are leading the adoption, followed by service sectors and households. A UBS model places industrial sectors as the adoption leaders, followed by service sectors and households. By 2030E, 63% of use cases should still be industrials, with more than half of models still non-bipedal. For humanoids’ full potential to be realised, we believe they eventually need to become a household consumer product and human-form humanoids (upper bodies with dual arms, dexterous hands and bi-pedal lower bodies) to become mainstream.
Uncertain Pathway to a Certain Future
The journey towards a humanoid future hinges on technological advancements, regulatory developments, and consumer acceptance. Brain technology remains a critical bottleneck, but the rapid progress in large language models (LLM) and vision language models, (LVM) along with innovative data collection and training, suggests that human-comparable performance is achievable. While the convergence of capital and labor may pose regulatory challenges, the benefits of alleviating labor shortages, enabling humans to engage in higher-value work, and mitigating fiscal challenges from an aging society cannot be overlooked.
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