The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report shows mixed trends across global agriculture for 2025/26. Wheat supplies, consumption, and ending stocks all rise, marking the first annual increase in global wheat inventories since 2019/20. US corn supplies expand due to higher beginning stocks, even as production declines slightly; exports strengthen and ending stocks rise, while global coarse grain output edges upward but foreign corn stocks fall. US rice production and ending stocks decrease on lower yields, and global rice supplies tighten with reduced ending stocks.
US soybean production and exports decline because of lower yields and stronger competition from Brazil and Argentina, contributing to lower global soybean stocks despite higher South American shipments. The report also notes reduced US sugar production and higher imports for 2025/26, along with weather-driven production cuts in Mexico. In livestock and dairy, output projections for 2025 are mostly lowered—except for broilers—due to reduced slaughter rates and the effects of HPAI, while milk production forecasts rise with stronger herd numbers and productivity. US cotton production, exports, and ending stocks increase on improved yields, with global cotton output and inventories also moving higher. The USDA writes:
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher, reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico’s production is raised on greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine, partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom. Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.
RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced based on the NASS November Crop Production report, which lowered 2025/26 production by 1.5 million cwt to 207.3 million on a smaller yield. The average all-rice yield is forecast at 7,506 pounds per acre, down 53 pounds from the previous forecast. Long-grain production is forecast at 152.7 million cwt, with medium- and short-grain at 54.7 million. Projected ending stocks are lowered by 1.5 million cwt to 51.9 million, down 4 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced to $12.70 per cwt. Globally, rice supplies are slightly lower, consumption reaches a record 542.4 million tons, trade rises to 62.9 million tons, and world ending stocks fall to 186.7 million tons.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is projected at 125.8 million tons, down 1.0 million on lower soybean output partly offset by higher peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million on lower yields. Supplies fall 61 million bushels due to reduced beginning stocks and production. U.S. soybean exports are cut to 1.64 billion bushels on tighter supplies and increased competition from Brazil and Argentina. Soybean crush is unchanged; ending stocks edge down. The season-average soybean price rises to $10.50 per bushel. Globally, soybean and sunflowerseed production decrease while rapeseed and cottonseed rise. Global soybean crush is lowered, exports are raised slightly, and world ending stocks fall 2.0 million tons to 122.0 million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply and use for 2023/24 and 2024/25 are updated with final Sweetener Market Data. Raw imports for 2023/24 rise, lowering direct consumption imports. Final 2024/25 sugar production totals 9.396 million STRV, with strong beet sugar output. Deliveries for human consumption rise to 12.549 million STRV, and ending stocks reach 2.489 million. For 2025/26, U.S. sugar supply is projected at 14.121 million STRV, down from September due to reduced production. Imports rise, especially High Tier/Other categories. Sugar use rises to 12.276 million STRV, and ending stocks are projected at 1.845 million STRV. Mexico’s sugar production is projected at 5.019 million MT, lowered due to rain and flooding, with reduced deliveries and ending stocks at 1.077 million MT.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2025 forecast for red meat and poultry production is lowered with declines in beef, pork, and turkey partly offset by higher broiler output. HPAI continues to impact turkey and egg production. For 2026, beef and pork production are reduced on lower slaughter and smaller hog supplies, while broiler production increases. Beef imports remain unchanged; some export forecasts are lowered. Price forecasts adjust based on recent data: cattle, broiler, turkey, and egg prices vary, while hog prices rise in 2026. Milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 increase due to strong inventories and productivity. Dairy product prices decline for butter, cheese, and NDM; Class III and IV prices move accordingly. The all-milk price is forecast at $21.05 per cwt for 2025 and $19.25 for 2026.
COTTON: The November 2025/26 U.S. cotton outlook shows higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Production rises to 14.1 million bales on higher yields. Exports increase to 12.2 million bales, and ending stocks rise nearly 20 percent to 4.3 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9 percent. The season-average upland cotton price is lowered to 62 cents per pound. Globally, cotton production, consumption, trade, and stocks all rise, with higher output in China, the United States, and Brazil contributing to an increase in global ending stocks to 75.9 million bales.
Read more here.
