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Paper mills are slowing down their production of cardboard as big box stores curtail purchases. The moves could indicate a slowdown in consumer spending. Tarso Veloso Ribeiro and Dayanne Sousa report in Bloomberg:

US paper mills are scaling back production as big-box retailers buy less cardboard, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending.

Cardboard boxes are present at nearly every step of a goodโ€™s journey through the supply chain, which makes the paper industry a key indicator of how consumer demand is faring. The US corrugated products industry is reporting slumping sales, with shipments of empty boxes in March down 11% from a year earlier.

Integrity Fiber Supply LLC, an Indiana-based paper products maker and recycler, is seeing the shift first-hand, according to one of its commodity traders. Kyle Risinger said at last weekโ€™s Commodity Trading Week Americas event in Chicago that manufacturing is down because inflation is curbing consumer spending, hurting demand.

โ€œWhen things are good and everything is running solidly, the mills are running at about 90% to 92%, making paper and packaging,โ€ Risinger said Thursday in a panel discussion. โ€œRight now, since the beginning of the year, theyโ€™re about 70% capacity.โ€

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